机构：海通国际 研究员：寇媛媛/陈芳园 老铺黄金2025 和2H25 前瞻：我们预期2025 年老铺黄金收入同比增长217%至269.6 亿元，对应2H25 收 入约146 亿，同比增长193%，线上增速快于线下，海外业务增速快于国内。我们预期25年线下同店增 速为160%+，2H25 同店增速为120%+，因为高基数较1H25的同店有所收窄，但依旧强劲，且4Q25的同 店势头良好，一方面由于金价上升为基础的提价，另一方面受益于会员数量持续扩充带来的客流量，上 半年公司会员数量达48 万，半年净增13万，环比增长37.1%，我们预期2H25 会员数量环比增长有望超 过上半年，短期入门级客户的快速扩圈是主要驱动力，速度超过金卡/黑卡会员数量的增长。我们预期 2025 年毛利率承压，且2H25毛利率环比1H25 进一步走弱，主要因为三季度金价上涨过快。受益于10 月下旬的提价， 4Q25 在黄金税改背景下毛利率显著恢复。 我们预期2025 年公司归母净利润为46.3 亿元，同比增长214%，对应2H25 归母净利润23.6 亿元，同比 增长167%。 2025 年公司深化"少而精、大而美"的顶奢选址策略，推动单店 ...

智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，维持老铺黄金(06181)"优于大市"评级，给予2026年23x PE估 值，对应目标价为948.4元港币，有20.4%的上升空间。该行预计2025年老铺黄金收入与净利润均实现超 过200%的强劲增长，主要受益于门店加速扩张、会员体系快速扩圈及持续的产品创新。公司深化"少而 精、大而美"的顶奢选址策略，推动单店坪效行业领先，并通过加快新品迭代与海外首店拓展，驱动收 入快速增长。 2025年7–12月期间老铺黄金在上海恒隆广场、深圳湾万象城、香港IFC等顶级商圈新增约5家门店，并 对部分存量门店进行扩建升级，体现出公司在核心城市"高密度、强存在感"的渠道打法;其中2025年8月 上海新天地新店开业并通过限时活动引流，强化品牌热度与到店转化。同时公司推进海外渠道，2025年 6月21日新加坡滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands)海外首店开业，为品牌国际化与高净值客群触达提供新增 场景。 从渠道结构看，截至2025年12月19日公司46多家自营门店(含岛柜)已覆盖16个城市，选址高度集中于一 线/一线高端商业体，在SKP与万象城两大体系布局尤为深入(分别约6家、12家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][12] Core Insights - Laopu Gold's revenue is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 26.96 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.63 billion, reflecting a 214% increase [3][12] - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic and overseas offline expansion, with a strategy of "fewer but better, larger and more beautiful" in site selection, enhancing per-store sales efficiency [4][10] - Differentiated original designs are driving product iterations, with new product contributions expected to rise, including exclusive launches targeting diverse consumer groups [5][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 26.96 billion, RMB 36.03 billion, and RMB 43.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 217%, 33.6%, and 21.5% [6][12] - Attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 6.51 billion, and RMB 8.19 billion, with growth rates of 214.3%, 40.6%, and 25.8% [6][12] Market Position and Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 5 new stores in high-end districts and upgrade existing ones, focusing on high-density and strong presence in core cities [4][10] - The company has expanded its international presence with the opening of its first overseas store in Singapore, enhancing brand internationalization [4][10] Product Development - The company has a clear cadence for new product launches, with several unique designs introduced throughout 2025, aimed at appealing to contemporary consumer aesthetics [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Laopu Gold [2][12] Core Insights - Laopu Gold's revenue is expected to grow by 217% year-on-year in 2025, reaching RMB 26.96 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.63 billion, also up 214% year-on-year [3][12] - The company is focusing on deepening its domestic and overseas offline expansion, with a strategy of "fewer but better, larger and more beautiful" in ultra-luxury site selection [4][10] - Differentiated original designs are driving product iteration, with new product contributions expected to rise further [5][11] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 26.96 billion, RMB 36.03 billion, and RMB 43.78 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 217%, 33.6%, and 21.5% [6][12] - Attributable net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 4.63 billion, RMB 6.51 billion, and RMB 8.19 billion, with growth rates of 214.3%, 40.6%, and 25.8% [6][12] Store Expansion and Strategy - Laopu Gold plans to open approximately 5 new stores in top-tier districts and upgrade existing stores during the second half of 2025 [4][10] - The company has opened its first overseas store in Singapore, enhancing its international presence [4][10] Product Development - The company has launched several new product lines targeting diverse consumer groups, including the "Gold Cross" series and the "Goddess of Light" pendant [5][11] - The product iteration strategy focuses on thematic innovation and distinctive craftsmanship to enhance product freshness [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong business performance since 2025, with recent price adjustments ensuring high gross margins despite new tax policies. The growth in membership and repurchase rates, along with positive market feedback on new products, indicates a promising future for revenue growth and brand enhancement. Group 1: Product Innovation - The company drives product innovation through a dual approach of "cultural empowerment + craftsmanship innovation," leading the industry in product iteration. Recent launches, such as the Seven Sons Gourd and Cross Pendant, have received positive market responses. The introduction of the "No. 3 Rose Window" and the "Goddess of Light" pendant showcases the company's commitment to craftsmanship innovation and strengthens its competitive advantage in the high-end jewelry sector [1][2]. Group 2: Channel Expansion - The company has expanded its offline high-end channel presence and initiated overseas expansion. Since 2025, it has opened 10 new stores, including a significant location in Shanghai. The first overseas store in Singapore marks a step in its international strategy, with plans for 6-7 more stores in Hong Kong and abroad in the next two years. Online sales have surged, with a reported 13.64 billion yuan in sales from July to September 2025, reflecting an 874% year-on-year increase [2][3]. Group 3: Tax Policy Impact - A new tax policy effective November 1 aims to close potential tax arbitrage in the gold jewelry sector, which may increase overall procurement costs. The company is expected to leverage its pricing power and cost control capabilities to enhance its competitive edge in response to potential industry-wide price increases [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company completed a placement of 3.71 million new H shares, raising approximately 2.707 billion HKD to support inventory for peak seasons. About 70% of the funds will be allocated for stock reserves, ensuring a steady supply of popular products and preparing for upcoming holiday releases. The company employs a refined procurement strategy to mitigate risks associated with gold price fluctuations [3]. Group 5: Financial Projections - The company maintains profit forecasts of 4.91 billion, 6.21 billion, and 7.58 billion yuan for 2025-2027. The target price is set at 1200 HKD, corresponding to a 38.5 times PE ratio for 2025, reflecting strong growth momentum and a high-end brand positioning [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of HKD 1,200 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong business performance since 2025, with effective price adjustments ensuring high gross margins despite new tax policies. The growth in membership and repurchase rates, along with positive market feedback on new products, indicates a robust future outlook [1][2]. - The company is leveraging a dual strategy of "cultural empowerment + craftsmanship innovation" to drive product innovation, maintaining a steady pace of new product launches that resonate well in the market [2]. - The company has expanded its offline high-end channel presence and initiated overseas expansion, with significant online sales growth. The opening of new stores in major domestic commercial centers and international locations marks a strategic move towards global presence [3]. - Recent tax policy changes are expected to increase procurement costs across the industry, but the company is well-positioned to leverage its pricing power and cost control capabilities to enhance its competitive advantage [3]. - The company completed a placement of new H shares, raising approximately HKD 27.07 billion to strengthen its supply chain resilience and meet seasonal demand, with a significant portion allocated for inventory reserves [4]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 project net profits of RMB 49.1 billion, RMB 62.1 billion, and RMB 75.8 billion respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [5]. Summary by Sections Products - The company is innovating through the integration of intangible cultural heritage techniques with modern design, leading to successful product launches such as the "Seven Sons Gourd" and "Cross Pendant" series, which have received positive market responses [2]. Channels - The company has opened 10 new stores since 2025, including a flagship store in Shanghai and its first overseas store in Singapore, indicating a comprehensive domestic and international expansion strategy. Online sales have surged, with a reported 874% year-on-year growth in sales from July to September 2025 [3]. Future Outlook - The recent share placement enhances liquidity for inventory management during peak seasons, with a focus on maintaining a diversified procurement strategy to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating gold prices [4]. Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of RMB 26.623 billion in 2025, reflecting a 213% increase from the previous year. The net profit margin is expected to remain strong, with a projected net profit of RMB 4.914 billion for 2025 [10][17].