Core Viewpoint - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profits due to unexpected demand from manufacturing and direct exports, alongside the implementation of "anti-involution" policies, leading to an increase in supply optimization expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the SW steel index rose by 24.00%, ranking 17th among Shenwan industries, driven by improved manufacturing and export demand [1][2]. - From October 2025 to present, the SW steel index has continued to rise by 14.19%, ranking 4th among Shenwan industries [1][2]. - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the rebar sector turned positive, with a 102.59% increase in special steel profits year-on-year, while the gross profit margin rose to 7.59% and net profit margin increased to 2.19% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The steel industry is focusing on differentiated production restrictions and classified management to promote high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent transformations, enhancing industry concentration and optimizing structural layout [3]. - Policies such as ultra-low emission upgrades and dual control of energy consumption are expected to drive capacity optimization and accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity [3]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machine tools, excavators, and commercial vehicles, remains resilient, with direct exports showing significant year-on-year growth, supporting steel demand [3]. - The construction sector is experiencing weak new starts, but forward-looking indicators like sales and land acquisition are showing reduced declines, stabilizing demand for construction steel [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Steel capacity optimization is expected to be a key focus moving forward, with a push for differentiated management to support competitive enterprises [4]. - Attention is recommended for leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as flexible stocks like Fangda Special Steel and New Steel [4]. - The special steel sector is projected to benefit from downstream demand in automotive, nuclear power, and oil and gas extraction, with companies like Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials highlighted for stable growth [4]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear non-ferrous resource increments, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, highlighting the potential for profit recovery and capacity optimization as key investment themes [4][5]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a significant recovery in profitability, with the SW Steel index rising by 24.00% in Q1-Q3 2025 and 14.19% from October 2025 to date, outperforming major indices [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of differentiated production restrictions to promote industry consolidation and the transition towards high-value, low-carbon, and intelligent production methods [2][3]. - Manufacturing and direct export demand remain resilient, supporting steel consumption despite a weak construction sector [2]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In Q1-Q3 2025, the steel sector's net profit saw a year-on-year increase of 747.63%, with a gross margin recovery to 7.59% and a net margin of 2.19% [17][21]. - The performance of the steel sector has been strong, with the SW Steel index ranking 4th among all sectors since October 2025 [1][11]. Supply-Side Policies - The introduction of differentiated production restrictions aims to eliminate inefficient capacity and enhance industry concentration [2][3]. - New policies are expected to drive the optimization of production capacity, with a focus on high-end, green, and intelligent manufacturing [3][51]. Demand-Side Dynamics - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and commercial vehicles, continues to show strength, while direct exports have increased significantly, supporting steel demand [2][3]. - The construction sector remains weak, but early indicators suggest a stabilization in demand for construction steel [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading steel companies that are well-positioned to benefit from policy support and capacity optimization, such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4]. - For special steel, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [3]. - In the raw materials sector, companies with clear growth in non-ferrous resources, such as Dazhong Mining and Hebei Steel Resources, are highlighted [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector has experienced a significant improvement in profitability during the third quarter, with a notable increase in profit margins for steel mills compared to previous quarters [1] Industry Summary - Steel stocks saw a rapid increase in share prices, with Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. rising by 5.38% to HKD 2.74, Chongqing Iron & Steel Co. increasing by 2.88% to HKD 1.43, and Ansteel Co. gaining 1.83% to HKD 2.22 [1] - According to Mysteel's statistics, the profitability rate of steel mills rose from 59% at the end of June to 64% by the end of August, although it declined in September due to steel prices not keeping pace with coking coal prices [1] - The average profitability rate for steel mills in the third quarter was 62%, which is an increase of 4.5 percentage points compared to the second quarter [1] - Longjiang Securities projects that the net profit per ton for the steel industry will reach CNY 92 in Q3 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of CNY 14 per ton, positioning it at the 68th percentile since 2021 [1] Future Outlook - Longjiang Securities anticipates that the profit margin for iron ore will have greater potential for reduction compared to coking coal, with the commissioning of the Ximangdu project in 2026 expected to provide opportunities for growth [1] - The report indicates that the expectation of reduced internal competition in the third quarter remains largely speculative, as steel companies show limited willingness to cut production based on high-frequency molten iron data [1] - The industry is expected to see a sustained realization of supply-side contraction logic under differentiated production restrictions and graded management in 2026 [1]