25Q2钢铁板块机构持仓比例下降。2024Q4-2025Q1，宏观政策托底叠加粗钢产量调控预 期，钢企利润有所修复，钢铁板块配置比例环比回升至0.42%。2025Q2，粗钢限产并未落 地，美国"对等"关税对需求预期形成压制，钢铁板块配置比例环比下降0.20pct，至0.22%。 民生证券近日发布钢铁行业2025年半年报总结：2025H1，钢材需求弱复苏，钢铁原料价 格跌幅大于钢材，钢企利润修复，SW钢铁上涨3.82%，在申万行业中排名第23。2025年7月 至今，随着"反内卷"政策推出，钢铁行业供给优化预期增强，行业利润复苏预期逐步增强， 钢价底部回升，SW钢铁上涨15.62%，在申万行业中排名第13。 产能优化箭在弦上。近年来，国内粗钢过剩幅度超越上一轮供给侧改革前的过剩周期 （2011-2015年）。反内卷基调下，钢铁行业规范条件、超低排放改造、碳排放权交易等政 策有望从多方面优化钢铁产能，供给格局有望改善。 以下为研究报告摘要： 制造业+直接出口支撑钢铁需求。制造业细分行业中，机床、挖机、乘用车等领域维持 景气，直接出口同比高增，支撑钢铁需求。建筑业新开工维持弱势，销售、拿地等前瞻指标 降幅收窄，专项债 ...

Core Viewpoint - Long-term optimization of steel production capacity will be a key focus, emphasizing the elimination of inefficiencies through differentiated management and classification [1] Group 1: General Steel Sector - The 2025 version of the steel industry standards establishes a comprehensive evaluation system for steel enterprises, which may serve as a crucial tool for differentiated management [1] - Attention is drawn to leading steel companies and those with elastic production capabilities, as they are expected to benefit from policy support aimed at capacity standardization, high-end production, and green initiatives [1] - Recommended companies include industry leaders such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, along with companies like Fangda Special Steel, New Steel, Shandong Steel, and Sansteel Mingguang, which are expected to show performance recovery and production elasticity [1] Group 2: Special Steel Sector - The special steel sector is anticipated to benefit from the growth in downstream industries such as automotive, wind energy, and oil and gas extraction, indicating a promising consumption outlook for special steel [1] - Ongoing projects in certain special steel companies are progressing steadily, suggesting stable growth in performance [1] - Recommended companies in this sector include Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials, which are expected to capitalize on these trends [1]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated positively with a recommendation for leading companies and flexible targets in both the ordinary and special steel sectors [4][4][4]. Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a recovery in profits, with the SW Steel index rising by 3.82% in H1 2025 and 15.62% from July to now, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][9][11]. - The profitability of the ordinary steel sector saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1831.92% in Q2 2025, while special steel experienced a slight decrease of 2.72% [2][16]. - The report highlights the ongoing optimization of steel production capacity, driven by policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and improving environmental standards [3][4][55]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Performance - In H1 2025, the steel sector's performance was weaker than the Shanghai Composite Index, but improved significantly from July onwards, aligning closely with the index [11][12]. - The ordinary steel sector showed a 4.47% increase in H1 2025 and a 17.63% increase from July to now, while special steel increased by 5.03% and 10.41% respectively [12][13]. Financial Metrics - The steel sector's total revenue in H1 2025 was 945.53 billion, down 9.16% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 157.66% to 13.14 billion [16][16]. - The gross profit margin improved to 7.47% in Q2 2025, with a net profit margin of 1.89% [19][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, which are expected to benefit from policy support and improved profitability [4][4][4]. - For the special steel sector, companies benefiting from downstream demand in automotive and renewable energy sectors are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Jiuli Special Materials [4][4][4]. Market Trends - The report notes that manufacturing and direct exports are supporting steel demand, while the construction sector remains weak but shows signs of stabilization [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo significant capacity optimization, with new regulations promoting high-value, low-carbon production methods [55][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "stability growth plan" from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize steel production capacity, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [3][7]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific prices for various steel products increasing as of July 18, 2025 [1][10]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with a total production of 8.68 million tons for the five major steel products, reflecting a week-on-week decrease [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,270 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price increases, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel [1][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products is 8.68 million tons, down 45,300 tons week-on-week [2][8]. - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 81,500 tons to 9.21 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons [2][8]. Profitability - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -19 CNY/ton, -7 CNY/ton, and +7 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].