如何看己二腈供需及后续价格弹性？20260303 摘要 2021 年为己二腈国产化分水岭，英威达上海 40 万吨装置运行顺畅，华 峰 20 万吨产能开工约 60%，中国化学淄博项目正处于从技改投入转向 负荷提升的盈利拐点。 中国化学与英威达单吨成本差约 3,200-3,300 元，主因催化剂性能劣势 导致单吨均摊高 2000 元及物料损耗 1,300 元；若 2026 年负荷升至 90%，成本劣势有望收敛至 1,500 元。 2026 年行业核心任务由"生产打通"转向"销量消化"，中国化学需 通过出口及策略性争取英威达客户，解决储罐容量仅覆盖单月产能的库 存压力。 PA66 民用丝级聚合稳定性仍是行业瓶颈，技术由英威达垄断；国内民 用端渗透率仅 10%（vs PA6 约 70%），若技术突破，需求空间有望从 80 万吨提升至数百万吨。 行业面临产能过剩预警，英威达凭借品质溢价具备强定价权；若新和成、 永荣等 50 万吨级产能投放引发价格战，高成本的己二酸法路线将首当 其冲。 中国化学 2026 年起不再有大规模技改支出（此前 4 年累计 30 亿）， 经营重心转向提升负荷至 80%以上，在 1.8 万元/吨售 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the nylon industry, with a stable profitability trend and a comprehensive product chain from basic raw materials to high-value-added products [1][3]. - The company has made significant progress in domestic production of key raw materials, particularly adiponitrile, which has historically been dominated by foreign companies [2]. - The company is enhancing its core competitiveness through vertical and horizontal integration of its industrial chain, ensuring stability in supply and increasing product value [3][26]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a stable revenue structure and has been deeply involved in the nylon industry for many years, with a strong state-owned shareholder background [11][13]. - The revenue scale has remained relatively stable, with a potential bottoming out of the declining profitability trend [16][20]. Business Expansion - The company focuses on the nylon core business while expanding horizontally and vertically, constructing a complete industrial chain for nylon 66 and nylon 6 [26][34]. - The company is actively developing high-value-added products and has established joint ventures to penetrate new markets, including the automotive sector [3][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain steady revenue growth over the next two years, with projected revenues of 133 billion, 143.5 billion, and 157.5 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [4][37]. - The forecasted net profits for the same period are -0.35 billion, 1.11 billion, and 2.26 billion yuan, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [4][37]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 93.43 and 45.79 for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.43, which is lower than comparable companies [4][41].