1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" reading rose 3 percentage points to 58%. The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range decreased to 35%, and the trading heat continued to rise, but the trends of various indicators were different [3][15][19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.本期微观交易温度计读数上升 3 个百分点至 58% - The "Guojin Securities Fixed Income - Bond Market Micro - Transaction Thermometer" increased by 3 percentage points to 58%. The consumer goods price ratio, full - market turnover, fund divergence, and listed company wealth management purchase volume percentile increased by 46, 24, 20, and 16 percentage points respectively, while the fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume, stock - bond price ratio, and real estate price ratio percentile decreased by 43, 16, and 14 percentage points respectively. The market and policy spreads widened, and their percentiles decreased by 2 and 3 percentage points respectively. Currently, indicators with high congestion include the 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover rate, allocation disk strength, and policy spread [3][15] 3.2.本期位于偏热区间的指标数量占比降至 35% 3.2.1. 全市场换手率持续上升 - In the trading heat indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped significantly to 33%, while the proportion in the cold range remained at 17%. The full - market turnover rate percentile continued to rise 24 percentage points to 76%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range [22] 3.2.2.中小行买入规模明显上升 - In the institutional behavior indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range remained at 13%, the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 50%, and the proportion in the cold range rose to 38%. The fund - small and medium - sized bank purchase volume decreased 43 percentage points to 10%, moving from the neutral range to the cold range [26] 3.2.3.政策、市场利差均走阔 - The policy spread rose 1bp to - 3bp, and its percentile decreased 2 percentage points to 97%, still in the over - heated range. The credit spread decreased 1bp to 49bp, the Agricultural Development - National Development spread was basically flat, and the IRS - 3M Shibor spread rose 3bp to 1bp. The average spread of the three was 17bp, and its percentile decreased 3 percentage points to 63%, still in the neutral range [30] 3.2.4.耐用消费品比价大幅上升 - In the price ratio indicators, the proportion of indicators in the over - heated range rose to 50%, the proportion in the cold range dropped to 25%, and the proportion in the neutral range dropped to 25%. The stock - bond price ratio percentile decreased 16 percentage points to 12%, remaining in the cold range; the commodity price ratio percentile rose 15 percentage points to 80%, moving from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the real estate price ratio percentile decreased 14 percentage points to 67%, remaining in the neutral range; the consumer goods price ratio percentile rose significantly by 46 percentage points, moving from the cold range to the over - heated range [9][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52%. The number of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 35%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has increased significantly, while some indicators such as the listed company's financial management purchase volume and commodity price - ratio percentile have declined to varying degrees [11][14][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Micro - trading Thermometer - The reading of the micro - trading thermometer for the current period has increased by 3 percentage points to 52% [11]. 3.2 Distribution of Indicator Ranges - Among the 20 micro - indicators, the number of indicators in the over - heated range has increased to 7 (35%), the number in the neutral range remains 6 (30%), and the number in the cold range has decreased to 7 (35%). The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, the overall market turnover ratio and the money tightening expectation have risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range, the market spread has risen from the cold range to the over - heated range, and the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio has dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range [3][18]. 3.3 Classification of Indicators 3.3.1 Trading Heat Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, and the proportion in the neutral range remains 50%. The 30/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has increased by 87 percentage points to 96% and risen from the cold range to the over - heated range; the overall market turnover ratio percentile has increased by 6 percentage points to 75% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range; the 1/10Y Treasury bond turnover ratio percentile has decreased by 17 percentage points to 60% and dropped from the over - heated range to the neutral range; the TL/T long - short ratio percentile has increased by 10 percentage points [5][19]. 3.3.2 Institutional Behavior Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the over - heated range has risen to 50%, the proportion in the neutral range has decreased to 13%, and the proportion in the cold range remains 38%. The money tightening expectation percentile has slightly increased by 1 percentage point to 70% and risen from the neutral range to the over - heated range. The listed company's financial management purchase volume has decreased by 17 percentage points to 4% [6][23]. 3.3.3 Spread Indicators - The policy spread has further narrowed by 1bp to - 1bp, and the 3 - year Treasury bond yield has fallen below the policy rate again, with its percentile continuing to rise by 5 percentage points to 59%, still in the neutral range. The credit spread, IRS - SHIBOR 3M spread, and Agricultural Development - CDB spread have changed, and the average spread has narrowed by 1bp to 18bp, with its percentile slightly rising by 1 percentage point to 41%, in the neutral range [7][30]. 3.3.4 Price - ratio Indicators - The proportion of indicators in the cold range remains 100%. The commodity price - ratio and real - estate price - ratio percentiles have decreased by 6 and 2 percentage points to 7% and 27% respectively, while the stock - bond price - ratio and consumer goods price - ratio percentiles remain the same as the previous period [8][30].