无论是短期是不是回调或者震荡就是网上的概率还是非常非常大的就是我们其实从经验经验了一系列事件看得到就是中国资产进行重复的逻辑实际上是在增强那么美国经济可能更多的是一个平缓的下移而且美债利率很难下降而且美元确实是趋弱的那么大家对于中国的这个其盈利会有些担心但是我就随着时间的推移呢 可能也会看到一些编辑的这个改善我觉得这一次中国这个上市公司的尤其是龙头企业这个盈利的修复就供给侧会发挥更重要的作用就是大家会看到很多的行业资本开始明显的这个下降或者是明显的负增长 东方财富证券将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢好尊敬的各位领导各位投资者朋友们大家晚上好感谢大家接受 每周日晚上东方财富策略的市场风向标签完会议我是东财策略成果那么首先呢由我来简要报告一下一周几周沟通小节和市场展望那么后续的话我们团队会员中也会讲一下我们从量化指标最近我们就看交易热度这个指标对大家实战意义的一个启发这周的话呢 我们和机构交流我觉得应该来说的话呢有一些这个共识和分析从共识来讲的话呢市场大家对于其实中期还是比较乐观的当然有一些投资者觉得短期可能会有一个回调的这个风险但是基本上也是认为这个回调是买入机会 对于这个结构呢存在一些分析因为前期我们 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations rising [1][13][21] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while domestic interbank liquidity remains overall loose, with the term spread (10Y-1Y) continuing to narrow [1][21][25] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as retail, consumer services, real estate, textiles, chemicals, light industry, and machinery above the 80th percentile [2][28][29] - The volatility of major indices, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, has continued to decline, while sectors like computers, communications, and media remain above the 80th historical percentile in volatility [2][28][34] Group 3: Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, food and beverages, and banking, with an upward trend in research heat for agriculture, food and beverages, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, petrochemicals, and electronics [3][43][44] Group 4: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Analysts have continued to lower net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, while sectors like agriculture, finance, electronics, and automobiles have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [2][51] - The proportion of upward adjustments in net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market has decreased, while the proportion of downward adjustments has increased [2][51] Group 5: Northbound Capital Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to decline, with overall net buying of A-shares, particularly in sectors like power and utilities, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [3][5] - The average daily trading volume of northbound capital has decreased, and its proportion of total A-share trading volume has also declined [3][5] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level since September 24, 2024, with net selling in sectors like non-bank financials, electric new energy, electronics, military industry, steel, and retail [3][6] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as finance, coal, communications, light industry, and computers has increased [3][6] Group 7: Fund Positioning - Actively managed equity funds have seen a continued decrease in positions, with net redemptions from investors, particularly in sectors like TMT, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, finance, and consumer services [5][8] - New equity fund formations have increased, with a rise in the scale of newly established passive equity funds [5][8]