Group 1 - Steel stocks have seen significant declines, with Maanshan Iron & Steel Co. down 3.89% to HKD 2.47, Angang Steel Co. down 3.69% to HKD 2.09, and Chongqing Iron & Steel Co. down 2.9% to HKD 1.34 [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, steel mill profits continue to decline, leading to a slight decrease in pig iron and steel output. The demand side shows that seasonal demand is below expectations, with weak performance in rebar and hot-rolled coil, resulting in inventory accumulation [1] - Currently, steel profits have dropped to a loss of approximately CNY 100 per ton, and market-driven production cuts may occur to alleviate inventory pressure. Long-term capacity regulation remains a key focus [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities reports that the negative impact of real estate on steel demand has significantly weakened, indicating that demand may gradually reach a bottom [1] - Despite not considering supply policies, the industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, and market-driven supply adjustments are beginning to emerge, suggesting a potential gradual recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to a quicker upward trend in the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Steel stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like Maanshan Iron & Steel, Ansteel, and Chongqing Iron & Steel reporting drops of 3.89%, 3.69%, and 2.9% respectively, indicating a challenging market environment for the steel industry [1] Supply Side Analysis - Steel mill profits continue to decline, leading to a slight decrease in pig iron and steel output; currently, steel profits have fallen to a loss of approximately 100 CNY per ton [1] - Market-driven production cuts may occur due to the pressure on supply, which could alleviate inventory issues in the short term [1] - Long-term capacity regulation remains a key focus for the industry [1] Demand Side Analysis - The negative impact of real estate on steel demand has significantly weakened, suggesting that demand may gradually reach a bottom [1] - Despite high production levels, the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is weaker than expected, resulting in inventory accumulation [1] - If supply policies are implemented, the speed of supply contraction may accelerate, leading to a quicker recovery in the industry [1]