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东吴证券:非银金融目前平均估值仍然较低 具有安全边际 攻守兼备
智通财经网· 2025-07-28 12:35
Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector is currently undervalued with a safety margin, benefiting from economic recovery and rising interest rates, particularly in the insurance and securities industries [1] Non-Bank Financial Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (July 21-25, 2025), the securities and insurance sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, with securities up 4.90% and insurance up 1.81%, while the multi-financial sector declined by 1.65%, leading to an overall increase of 3.65% in the non-bank financial sector compared to a 1.69% rise in the CSI 300 index [2] Securities Industry Insights - Trading volume saw a significant year-on-year increase, with the average daily trading volume for July reaching 18,191 billion yuan, up 139.92% year-on-year and 18.72% month-on-month. The margin financing balance was 19,420 billion yuan, a 35.34% increase year-on-year [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on consolidating market stability and enhancing market vitality through reforms and improved regulatory effectiveness [3] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.4x for 2025, with recommendations for leading firms benefiting from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities and Tonghuashun [3] Insurance Industry Developments - The preset interest rate for traditional insurance has been lowered to 1.99%, which is expected to improve the liability costs for life insurance companies. Major firms like China Life and Ping An have announced reductions in their preset rates [4] - The insurance sector reported strong premium growth in Q2 2025, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in original premium income for life insurance companies and a 15.2% increase in Q2 alone [4] - The insurance industry's valuation is currently at historical lows, with a projected P/EV ratio of 0.61-0.94 for 2025, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the sector [4] Multi-Financial Sector Overview - The trust industry reported a total asset scale of 29.56 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, although profits fell by 45.5% [5] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 740 million contracts in June, with a transaction value of 52.79 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 28.91% and 17.40% respectively [5] - Public funds increased their holdings in the non-bank financial sector, with a 1.93% total allocation by the end of Q2 2025, indicating a slight increase from Q1 2025 [5]