1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the unilateral strategy is neutral, suggesting waiting for a clear bottom signal and considering a left - side long - position allocation at low prices. There are no specific ratings for cross -品种, cross - period, spot - futures, and options strategies [3] 2. Core View - The asphalt market is currently influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with a north - south divide in the regional market. Cost - side support has become marginally stronger due to factors such as the rebound in crude oil prices and the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, which has increased concerns about asphalt raw materials. Meanwhile, the actual fundamentals of asphalt remain weak, especially in the south where refineries are releasing a large amount of low - priced resources, leading to significant surplus pressure. The contradiction of local surplus needs time to be resolved, and the risk of tightening raw material supply is a potential upward driver. The market is in a state of game between reality and expectations, and there will still be fluctuations during the bottom - rebound process [1][2] 3. Market Analysis Futures Market - On December 24, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 2,996 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 190,035 lots, a decrease of 14,707 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 187,941 lots, a decrease of 54,265 lots compared to the previous day [2] Spot Market - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are as follows: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,870 - 3,190 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,000 - 3,100 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly yesterday, while those in East China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions decreased. The spot prices in other regions remained generally stable [2] 4. Strategy Unilateral Strategy - Neutral. Wait for a clear bottom signal and consider a left - side long - position allocation at low prices [3] Other Strategies - There are no specific strategies for cross -品种, cross - period, spot - futures, and options [3]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by 0.8% to $9,647 per ton, while SHFE copper dropped by 0.77% to ¥78,570 per ton, indicating ongoing losses in domestic import markets [1] - The US May CPI exceeded expectations, alleviating pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons, while Comex copper increased by 1,044 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 373 tons, reflecting mixed supply dynamics [1] Group 2 - LME nickel prices declined by 1.21% to $15,145 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell by 0.95% to ¥120,350 per ton, with LME inventory down by 966 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts down by 151 tons [1] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, and the surplus in stainless steel for June is expected to ease, although mid-term demand pressures persist [1] - The primary nickel fundamentals are improving but are constrained by downstream demand, with attention on nickel ore premiums and inventory performance [1] Group 3 - Alumina prices showed weak fluctuations, with AO2509 closing at ¥2,886 per ton, down 0.21%, while SHFE aluminum showed stronger fluctuations, with AL2507 closing at ¥20,250 per ton, up 0.4% [1] - The resumption of production in alumina enterprises is putting pressure on inventory, leading to weak adjustments in electrolytic aluminum, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around benchmark levels [1] Group 4 - Monocrystalline silicon prices showed strong fluctuations, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,255 per ton, up 0.72%, while industrial silicon also saw strong fluctuations, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,560 per ton, up 2.23% [1] - The reduction in hydropower prices in the southwest is leading to a cost adjustment in industrial silicon, while monocrystalline silicon continues to reduce load, with potential for expanded production cuts [1] Group 5 - Lithium carbonate futures for contract 2507 rose by 0.16% to ¥60,760 per ton, with mixed price movements in the spot market [1] - Warehouse inventory decreased by 172 tons, and lithium ore prices have stopped falling, with a significant month-on-month increase in June production supply, although demand growth remains unclear [1] - Prices are at a temporary bottom, leading to intensified competition between bulls and bears, with a focus on warehouse receipt conditions [1]