昨日山东地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，华东以及川渝地区沥青现货价格有所下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企 稳。整体来看，当前沥青市场多空因素交织，区域上则呈现南北分化的格局。一方面，原油价格反弹、委内瑞拉 地缘局势升级，沥青原料担忧有所增加，成本端支撑边际转强，北方冬储需求释放巩固底部信号；另一方面，沥 青现实基本面仍偏弱，尤其南方炼厂释放低价资源较多，过剩压力较大，压制市场情绪。往前看，局部过剩矛盾 仍有待时间消化，原料端收紧风险则是潜在的上行驱动，市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹过程 中仍面临拉扯。 市场多空因素交织，成本端支撑边际转强 市场分析 1、12月24日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2996元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨8元/吨，涨幅 0.27%；持仓190035手，环比下跌14707手，成交187941手，环比下降54265手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2750—2950元/吨； 华东，3000—3100元/吨。 策略 石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-25 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝 ...

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell by 0.8% to $9,647 per ton, while SHFE copper dropped by 0.77% to ¥78,570 per ton, indicating ongoing losses in domestic import markets [1] - The US May CPI exceeded expectations, alleviating pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [1] - LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons, while Comex copper increased by 1,044 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts fell by 373 tons, reflecting mixed supply dynamics [1] Group 2 - LME nickel prices declined by 1.21% to $15,145 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell by 0.95% to ¥120,350 per ton, with LME inventory down by 966 tons and SHFE warehouse receipts down by 151 tons [1] - Nickel ore prices remain strong, and the surplus in stainless steel for June is expected to ease, although mid-term demand pressures persist [1] - The primary nickel fundamentals are improving but are constrained by downstream demand, with attention on nickel ore premiums and inventory performance [1] Group 3 - Alumina prices showed weak fluctuations, with AO2509 closing at ¥2,886 per ton, down 0.21%, while SHFE aluminum showed stronger fluctuations, with AL2507 closing at ¥20,250 per ton, up 0.4% [1] - The resumption of production in alumina enterprises is putting pressure on inventory, leading to weak adjustments in electrolytic aluminum, with expectations of short-term fluctuations around benchmark levels [1] Group 4 - Monocrystalline silicon prices showed strong fluctuations, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥34,255 per ton, up 0.72%, while industrial silicon also saw strong fluctuations, with the main contract 2507 closing at ¥7,560 per ton, up 2.23% [1] - The reduction in hydropower prices in the southwest is leading to a cost adjustment in industrial silicon, while monocrystalline silicon continues to reduce load, with potential for expanded production cuts [1] Group 5 - Lithium carbonate futures for contract 2507 rose by 0.16% to ¥60,760 per ton, with mixed price movements in the spot market [1] - Warehouse inventory decreased by 172 tons, and lithium ore prices have stopped falling, with a significant month-on-month increase in June production supply, although demand growth remains unclear [1] - Prices are at a temporary bottom, leading to intensified competition between bulls and bears, with a focus on warehouse receipt conditions [1]