Group 1: Core Viewpoint - The Mexican market may experience volatility due to various macro events impacting related funds and stocks [1] Group 2: Industry Policy and Environment - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a formal review in the summer of 2026, with discussions around origin rules, labor, and energy disputes potentially increasing market volatility [2] Group 3: Policy Situation - The Bank of Mexico is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7% by December 2025, with a potential further reduction to around 6.5% in 2026; inflation is anticipated to return to the target range of 3% by the third quarter of 2026, influenced by domestic and external economic data [3] Group 4: Capital Flow - Data from early February 2026 indicates that investors are increasingly shifting towards international equity funds, with emerging markets experiencing net inflows for the seventh consecutive week, which may indirectly affect the asset allocation demand in Mexico [4] Group 5: Market Environment - External uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's policy pace, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and changes in carry trade structures, may exert short-term pressure on the peso exchange rate and capital flows, subsequently impacting the stock market; the Mexican economy is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but risks related to trade policy and fluctuating inflation need to be monitored [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's approaching interest rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting releasing loose policy signals, combined with supply - side disturbances and inventory changes, will affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors, and short - term price trends are mainly affected by macro events, supply - demand relationships and inventory levels [5][8][11] Summary of Key Points by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the US dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices pulled back. LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.76% to $11,470/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,020 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipts decreased to 30,000 tons [4] - **Strategy View**: The approaching Fed's interest rate meeting is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The expected reduction in production due to tight mines and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to remain high. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract today is 90,500 - 92,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,400 - 11,650 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the Fed's interest rate meeting approached, the market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum closed down 1.42% to $2,845/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,835 yuan/ton. The total position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased significantly by 63,000 to 661,000 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 523,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium remains high, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline. With supply disturbances and stable downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are strongly supported. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract today is 21,700 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,880 dollars/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.99% to 17,167 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 19.5 dollars to $1,992/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: The port inventory of lead ore has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased normally. The operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and downstream battery enterprises have all increased. Although the smelter's factory inventory has continued to rise, the domestic lead ingot social inventory has decreased to a low level, and lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.96% to 23,077 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24 dollars to $3,100.5/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,190 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC has declined again. The domestic supply has narrowed marginally, and the LME zinc inventory has slowly accumulated. In the medium term, the zinc industry's supply surplus cycle remains, and the upside space is limited. In the short term, due to the narrowing of supply and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 312,320 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from the previous day. The supply shortage of raw materials has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The demand in traditional fields is weak, and the long - term demand from emerging fields provides support for tin prices. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was afraid of high prices, and spot trading was cold [14] - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances determine the short - term price. After the macro - risks are released, tin prices may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 42,000 dollars/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,350 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable, and the nickel ore price remained stable, while the nickel iron price rebounded significantly [16] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, short - term nickel prices may turn to volatile operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term reference operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC late - session index reported 91,069 yuan, up 0.11% from the previous working day. The LC2605 contract closed at 92,800 yuan, down 2.15% from the previous day [20] - **Strategy View**: The domestic futures market was under pressure on Tuesday. There are differences in the market between supply release and demand expectation realization. There is uncertainty in the resumption time of production at Jianxiaowo and the first - quarter consumption. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 90,900 - 94,500 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 9, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.48% to 2,597 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,720 yuan/ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB fell 1 dollar/ton to $311/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 37,000 tons to 254,300 tons [23] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, shipments will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained flat. The raw material price of high - nickel iron remained flat, and the waste - steel recycling price increased by 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% [26] - **Strategy View**: Although the sales improved in November, the high - inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled and the demand for downstream low - level replenishment is released, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast - aluminum alloy weakened yesterday. The main AD2602 contract closed down 1.54% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 30,000 lots, and the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 10 tons to 49,200 tons [29] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and the supply - side disturbances continue. The price has strong support below, but the demand is relatively volatile, and there is pressure from delivery above. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil still faces inventory pressure, with difficulties in inventory reduction. Attention should be paid to the tone of important meetings [2]. - The overall inventory of iron ore remains high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradiction. The impact of macro - pricing will gradually strengthen in December [5]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds rather than continue to short, as macro factors are more important [9][10]. - Industrial silicon shows a short - term weak operation with a supply - demand weak pattern and limited marginal changes [13]. - Polysilicon faces challenges in reducing inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games [15]. - The glass industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, with the supply - demand contradiction not effectively resolved, and the market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [18]. - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a stable price in the short term, but it should still be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20]. Summary by Category Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3175 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.189%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 441,41 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 114,799 lots to 1,411,905 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.391%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged. The main contract position increased by 492,093 lots to 1,034,595 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - This week, rebar production declined significantly, inventory continued to decrease, and the overall performance was neutral. Hot - rolled coil production decreased, apparent demand was neutral, inventory reduction was difficult, and the social inventory level was high. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.63% (- 5.00). The position decreased by 41,114 lots to 293,700 lots. The weighted position was 949,800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 793 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.96 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.69% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume remained stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline of Rio Tinto and FMG shipments. Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The near - end arrival volume decreased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 232.3 tons, down 2.38 tons. The number of blast furnace overhauls was more than that of restarts, and annual inspections increased. The steel mill profitability rate rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. In the inventory aspect, port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, and there is no sign of resolving the inventory structural contradiction [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On December 4, affected by the increase in settlement electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia and the sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys rebounded significantly. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed up 0.87% at 5796 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a premium of 114 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed up 1.84% at 5546 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The market sentiment has improved, but there is still differentiation among commodity sectors. The black sector is weak, and ferroalloys are also affected by the weak coking coal sentiment. It is not necessary to be overly pessimistic, and the positive impact of macro - events in December on market sentiment is worth expecting. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for opportunities to make rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, but it is difficult for its own fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions or drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 0.11% (- 10). The weighted position increased by 12,668 lots to 413,311 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 440 yuan/ton. The spot price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 90 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,915 yuan/ton, down 0.90% (- 515). The weighted position decreased by 1,608 lots to 276,578 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was - 4615 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon shows short - term weak operation. The weekly output continues to decline, and the marginal decline has slowed down significantly. The demand from polysilicon in December is weakening, the demand from organic silicon is stable in the short term, and the demand from silicon - aluminum alloy has increased, but the export has decreased significantly in October. The cost support is stable, and the supply - demand pattern has limited marginal changes [13]. - The production of polysilicon in December is expected to continue to decline, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease significantly, and the inventory pressure before the Chinese New Year is difficult to relieve. The downstream prices are weak, while the upstream silicon enterprises still maintain high prices. The near - month contract has high risks due to delivery games, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of the platform company [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1010 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.98% (- 10). The price of large - sized glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, down 10 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million cases, down 2.92 million cases (- 4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,182 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 23,024 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, down 0.26% (- 3). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1132 yuan, down 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5386 million tons, down 48,800 tons (- 4.68%), including 810,800 tons of heavy soda ash inventory, down 36,000 tons, and 727,800 tons of light soda ash inventory, down 12,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 14,611 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 19,616 lots [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply of glass has decreased due to the cold - repair of production lines by many enterprises last week, and the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall spot market trading is still light, and the manufacturers still face great pressure in shipping. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the futures price has rebounded due to short - covering. The industry is still in the bottom - seeking stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream orders and the implementation of cold - repair production lines [18]. - The production capacity of soda ash has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled devices. The mainstream market supply meets the demand, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Light soda ash supply is locally tight, and the demand is relatively stable. Heavy soda ash demand is weak due to the decline in the glass industry. The soda ash price remains stable in the short term, but it should be viewed bearishly before the demand improves [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - For iron ore, the overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions. The price is expected to operate within a fluctuating range, and changes in the overall commodity environment should be noted [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point. Looking for opportunities to rebound may be more cost - effective than short - selling [10][11]. - Industrial silicon is in a weak short - term operation, with a pattern of weak supply and demand. Its price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new energy varieties [14]. - For polysilicon, the current situation remains weak. There are uncertainties in the delivery game of near - month contracts, and attention should be paid to the final establishment of platform companies [17]. - For glass, the industry is still in the bottom - finding stage, and the market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to consider shorting at high prices [20]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should still be regarded as bearish before the demand side shows significant improvement [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3133 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3325 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (- 0.06%) from the previous trading day [1]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar's supply and demand both decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese steel will affect exports [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 800.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06% (- 0.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.30 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.47% [4]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments were stable. Australian shipments decreased slightly, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased slightly. The daily average hot - metal output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate was at a low level. Port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: On December 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.03% at 5722 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.33% at 5448 yuan/ton [7][9]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the weak sentiment of coking coal, ferroalloys continued to be weak. However, there is no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8975 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.86% (- 170). The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with a basis of 375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The weekly output of industrial silicon continued to decline, and the marginal decline slowed down. The demand for polysilicon decreased, the demand for silicone was stable in the short term, and the export of silicon - aluminum alloy decreased significantly [14]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 56315 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.41% (- 1390). The average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 3965 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The production of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited. The downstream silicon wafer production reduction is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve [17]. Glass - **Price Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1034 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of - 0.19% (- 2). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The supply side has shrunk, but the overall spot market trading atmosphere is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. Soda Ash - **Price Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1183 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, with a change of + 0.60% (+ 7). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [21]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The industry's operating load increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly, the demand for light soda ash was relatively stable, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm and the tone of important meetings [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range, with high overall inventory and existing structural contradictions [5]. - The ferroalloy shows a weak trend, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to focus on the inflection point of market sentiment and corresponding price changes [9]. - The industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand with limited marginal changes, and the price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon market has obvious contradictions between reality and expectation, and the inventory pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [15]. - The glass industry is still at the bottom - exploring stage, and the market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high levels [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to remain stable in the short term, but it should be regarded as bearish before the demand side improves significantly [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.549%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (0.273%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai remained unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Views** - Rebar supply and demand both declined, and inventory continued to be depleted, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coil production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory was only slightly depleted [2]. - South Korea's anti - dumping tax on Chinese hot - rolled thick steel plates will affect steel exports to some extent [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 794.00 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of - 0.69% (- 5.50), and the position changed by - 23,368 lots to 391,000 lots. The weighted position was 920,100 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.54 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.87% [4]. - **Strategy Views** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability rate dropped to a near - three - year low. The port inventory increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory was slightly consumed [5]. - The iron ore overall inventory is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The price is expected to operate within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On November 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.25%, at 5,612 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,630 yuan/ton, with a premium of 208 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed flat at 5,390 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,400 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - Last week, the manganese silicon price fluctuated narrowly at the lower edge of the range, and the ferrosilicon price slowly declined [8]. - **Strategy Views** - The market sentiment has improved, but the black - metal sector is still weak, and the ferroalloy is also affected. There's no need to be overly pessimistic, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - The manganese silicon fundamentals are not ideal, and it is difficult to drive the price down significantly. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore situation. The ferrosilicon supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 9,130 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 0.16% (+ 15). The weighted contract position changed by - 28,495 lots to 381,451 lots [12]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 56,425 yuan/ton on Friday, with a change of + 2.15% (+ 1,190). The weighted contract position changed by + 5,632 lots to 260,870 lots [14]. - **Strategy Views** - The production of industrial silicon has been declining, the demand from polysilicon is weakening, the demand from silicone is stable in the short term, and the cost support is stable. The price is easily affected by the capital sentiment of other new - energy varieties [13]. - The polysilicon production is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production cut is expected to increase, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The price is affected by the delivery game and the platform company's implementation expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The glass main contract closed at 1,041 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.39% (+ 4). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 941,000 boxes week - on - week (- 1.49%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton on Friday, up 0.09% (+ 1). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 57,000 tons week - on - week (- 1.49%) [19]. - **Strategy Views** - The glass supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has briefly improved, but the overall trading atmosphere in the spot market is still light, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [18]. - The soda ash production load has slightly increased, the inventory has slightly decreased, and the price is supported by cost and pending orders. It is expected to remain stable in the short term, but should be regarded as bearish before the demand improves [20].

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the medium - term price center still moving down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on October 30, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,257 yuan/ton, up from 2,241 yuan/ton the previous day; the settlement price was 2,245 yuan/ton, down from 2,252 yuan/ton the previous day; the trading volume was 585,629 lots, down from 685,035 lots the previous day; the open interest was 1,197,415 lots, down from 1,221,292 lots the previous day; the number of warehouse receipts was 12,122 tons, down from 13,872 tons the previous day; the trading volume was 1,314,936 ten - thousand yuan, down from 1,542,841 ten - thousand yuan the previous day. The basis was - 47, down from - 34 the previous day, and the MA01 - MA05 spread was - 64, down from - 62 the previous day [1] - In the spot market, on October 30, 2025, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shandong price was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2102.10, down 0.18. The Taicang spot price was 2210, up 3, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2010, unchanged. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 3 to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed regional narrow - range adjustments. The futures market rebounded slightly after hitting a new low in the night session, and the port market followed slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still average. The atmosphere in the main inland areas improved slightly. After the olefin procurement in the production areas was released, and most upstream enterprises' inventories were still controllable, most trade resales showed small increases, and some low - end transactions were acceptable; some areas in North China weakened slightly [3] - As of October 29, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events recently, the short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term price center will still move down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, and the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions. The 01 contract's downside space is gradually narrowing as the premium decreases. Macro - events such as the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and Sino - US trade consultations need to be closely monitored, as well as the Sino - US ship issue [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report doesn't explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - **Positive Trends**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, asphalt [2][8][9][10][11][18][25] - **Neutral Trends**: Synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][14][16][31][33][35][37][44][45][48][49][51][54][55][57][58][61][63][64][67][68][75][76][78] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda [40][41] 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - events. For example, PTA may strengthen due to anti - involution policies and improved downstream demand; MEG may rise because of cost support; while caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations [8][9][40] 3. Summaries According to Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Trades in a unilateral oscillating market. PXN is recommended to be shorted at high levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, with some plants restarting and others delaying maintenance [8] - **PTA**: Expected to be unilaterally strong. Anti - involution policies may lead to supply contraction. Downstream demand is improving, and processing fees are likely to expand in the short term [8] - **MEG**: Supported by rising coal prices, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Domestic supply may shrink marginally, but port inventory is expected to be high [9] Rubber - Trades in a slightly upward - oscillating manner. Futures prices have increased, and inventory in Qingdao has decreased. Tire production capacity utilization has improved [10][11][13] Synthetic Rubber - Oscillates as cost decreases but the macro - environment is strong. Inventory has decreased, and the price may show a wide - range oscillating pattern in the short term and a downward - centered trend in the medium term [14][15][16] Asphalt - Follows the oscillation of crude oil. Capacity utilization and shipment volume have increased this week [18][25][30] LLDPE - Mainly oscillates. Although the raw material oil price has fallen, downstream demand provides support. Supply pressure may increase later [31][32] PP - Stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Downward pressure comes from multiple factors, but short - term rebounds are reasonable due to oil price rebounds and supply cuts [35][36] Caustic Soda - Its valuation is suppressed. Alumina production cut expectations limit its upside, and cost has decreased recently [39][40] Paper Pulp - Oscillates. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and there is a differentiation between financial attributes and fundamentals [44][46][47] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market of soda ash shows weak and stable oscillations [48][49] Methanol - Oscillates in the short term and its price center may move down in the medium term. It is affected by fundamental supply pressure and macro - events [51][53][54] Urea - Oscillates with a game between fundamental pressure and a strong macro - environment. Inventory has decreased this week, but the short - term fundamental situation is weakening [55][56][57] Benzene, Styrene - Oscillates in the short term. Crude oil price rebounds drive chemical valuation repair, and there is a shift from inventory accumulation to destocking expectations [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. Supply remains high, and demand is tepid [61][63] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Has limited upward drivers, and cost changes should be monitored [67] - **Propylene**: Oscillates weakly in the short term due to a relatively loose supply - demand situation [68] PVC - Rebounds in the short term but may face pressure later. High - production and high - inventory structures are difficult to change [75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Weakens compared to the previous period, and price fluctuations continue to widen [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market rebounds again [78] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a peak. Futures prices have increased, and freight rates have also risen [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].