Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to show a short - term oscillating pattern, with the medium - term price center still moving down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, while the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - In the futures market, on October 30, 2025, the closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,257 yuan/ton, up from 2,241 yuan/ton the previous day; the settlement price was 2,245 yuan/ton, down from 2,252 yuan/ton the previous day; the trading volume was 585,629 lots, down from 685,035 lots the previous day; the open interest was 1,197,415 lots, down from 1,221,292 lots the previous day; the number of warehouse receipts was 12,122 tons, down from 13,872 tons the previous day; the trading volume was 1,314,936 ten - thousand yuan, down from 1,542,841 ten - thousand yuan the previous day. The basis was - 47, down from - 34 the previous day, and the MA01 - MA05 spread was - 64, down from - 62 the previous day [1] - In the spot market, on October 30, 2025, the Inner Mongolia price was 1,990 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the northern Shaanxi price was 1,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the Shandong price was 2,170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2102.10, down 0.18. The Taicang spot price was 2210, up 3, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2010, unchanged. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of price increases, with increases ranging from 3 to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol market showed regional narrow - range adjustments. The futures market rebounded slightly after hitting a new low in the night session, and the port market followed slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still average. The atmosphere in the main inland areas improved slightly. After the olefin procurement in the production areas was released, and most upstream enterprises' inventories were still controllable, most trade resales showed small increases, and some low - end transactions were acceptable; some areas in North China weakened slightly [3] - As of October 29, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 150.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 2.97 million tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 2.40 million tons [3] Market Outlook - The methanol fundamentals are under great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events recently, the short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the medium - term price center will still move down. The upper pressure mainly comes from the supply side of the fundamentals, and the lower side is supported by port logistics contradictions. The 01 contract's downside space is gradually narrowing as the premium decreases. Macro - events such as the Fourth Plenary Session, the "15th Five - Year Plan", and Sino - US trade consultations need to be closely monitored, as well as the Sino - US ship issue [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report doesn't explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings but gives trend intensities for each commodity: - **Positive Trends**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, asphalt [2][8][9][10][11][18][25] - **Neutral Trends**: Synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, methanol, urea, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [2][14][16][31][33][35][37][44][45][48][49][51][54][55][57][58][61][63][64][67][68][75][76][78] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda [40][41] 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the futures market show various trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and macro - events. For example, PTA may strengthen due to anti - involution policies and improved downstream demand; MEG may rise because of cost support; while caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations [8][9][40] 3. Summaries According to Commodities PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Trades in a unilateral oscillating market. PXN is recommended to be shorted at high levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, with some plants restarting and others delaying maintenance [8] - **PTA**: Expected to be unilaterally strong. Anti - involution policies may lead to supply contraction. Downstream demand is improving, and processing fees are likely to expand in the short term [8] - **MEG**: Supported by rising coal prices, it is expected to be strong in the short term. Domestic supply may shrink marginally, but port inventory is expected to be high [9] Rubber - Trades in a slightly upward - oscillating manner. Futures prices have increased, and inventory in Qingdao has decreased. Tire production capacity utilization has improved [10][11][13] Synthetic Rubber - Oscillates as cost decreases but the macro - environment is strong. Inventory has decreased, and the price may show a wide - range oscillating pattern in the short term and a downward - centered trend in the medium term [14][15][16] Asphalt - Follows the oscillation of crude oil. Capacity utilization and shipment volume have increased this week [18][25][30] LLDPE - Mainly oscillates. Although the raw material oil price has fallen, downstream demand provides support. Supply pressure may increase later [31][32] PP - Stops falling in the short term and oscillates in the medium term. Downward pressure comes from multiple factors, but short - term rebounds are reasonable due to oil price rebounds and supply cuts [35][36] Caustic Soda - Its valuation is suppressed. Alumina production cut expectations limit its upside, and cost has decreased recently [39][40] Paper Pulp - Oscillates. Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and there is a differentiation between financial attributes and fundamentals [44][46][47] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market of soda ash shows weak and stable oscillations [48][49] Methanol - Oscillates in the short term and its price center may move down in the medium term. It is affected by fundamental supply pressure and macro - events [51][53][54] Urea - Oscillates with a game between fundamental pressure and a strong macro - environment. Inventory has decreased this week, but the short - term fundamental situation is weakening [55][56][57] Benzene, Styrene - Oscillates in the short term. Crude oil price rebounds drive chemical valuation repair, and there is a shift from inventory accumulation to destocking expectations [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market shows little change. Supply remains high, and demand is tepid [61][63] LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Has limited upward drivers, and cost changes should be monitored [67] - **Propylene**: Oscillates weakly in the short term due to a relatively loose supply - demand situation [68] PVC - Rebounds in the short term but may face pressure later. High - production and high - inventory structures are difficult to change [75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Weakens compared to the previous period, and price fluctuations continue to widen [78] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in the overseas spot market rebounds again [78] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the risk of a fall after a peak. Futures prices have increased, and freight rates have also risen [80]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].