市场规模

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【闲聊杂谈】行业研究框架之地图
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 10:06
Core Concept - The article presents a comprehensive framework for industry research, focusing on the industry lifecycle, business models, market size, and competitive landscape, providing investors with essential tools for informed decision-making [2][4][21] Industry Lifecycle - Industries can be categorized into four stages based on revenue: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, reflecting changes in customer demographics and market dynamics [4][5] - The introduction phase features innovative products with uncertain market potential, while the growth phase sees an increase in user adoption and revenue [4][5] - In the maturity phase, revenue growth slows as new customer acquisition diminishes, leading to increased competition and potential market share consolidation [5][6] - The decline phase is characterized by stagnant user growth and the emergence of substitutes, where only companies with significant scale or cost advantages can maintain competitiveness [5][6] Research Focus by Lifecycle Stage - In the introduction phase, the primary concern is the feasibility of the business model, assessing real demand and sustainable profitability [7][10] - For the growth phase, the focus shifts to estimating market size and potential growth over the next 3-5 years to ensure sufficient growth opportunities [7][14] - In the maturity phase, evaluating the industry's competitive advantages and potential for new market opportunities becomes crucial [8][15] - During the decline phase, research should pivot towards substitutes and alternative investment opportunities [8][19] Market Size and Concentration - Market size is typically measured by sales revenue, with larger markets being essential for the emergence of significant companies [13][14] - Different market size metrics are relevant at various lifecycle stages: Total Addressable Market (TAM) in the introduction phase, Serviceable Available Market (SAM) and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) in the growth and maturity phases [13][14] - Industry concentration levels impact profitability, with higher concentration often leading to better profit margins [20] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is critical in determining future profitability, with horizontal competition (among peers) and vertical relationships (upstream and downstream) both influencing market dynamics [19][20] - Understanding market share and industry concentration helps gauge profitability potential, with high concentration indicating better profit prospects [20] - The ability to maintain a competitive edge through unique advantages, such as brand strength or cost leadership, is vital for long-term success [15][16]
市场上的机会成本来自哪些方面?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-12 10:37
Market Size - Market capacity significantly determines the revenue ceiling of a product, and entering a niche market implies forgoing the scale benefits of a mass market. Evaluating opportunity costs requires assessing the compatibility of internal resources with the competitive pressure of the chosen market space [3]. Market Growth Rate - In high-growth markets, companies often increase their investment-output ratio, but this comes with increased risks. Conversely, low-growth markets offer more stability but may limit growth potential. Choosing a low-growth market entails accepting the risk of falling behind in high-growth expansions, while pursuing high-growth markets necessitates readiness for cost pressures due to volatility [5]. Market Concentration - Market concentration reflects the current competitive landscape, aiding in the assessment of entry difficulty and profit potential. High-concentration markets are dominated by a few giants, leading to higher costs for new entrants. Low-concentration markets have less competitive pressure but may face rising customer acquisition costs due to a lack of scale effects [7]. User Aggregation - In highly aggregated markets, users are concentrated, resulting in lower marketing and channel coverage costs, but may also lead to issues of homogenized competition. Conversely, low-aggregation markets have dispersed users, increasing customer acquisition costs but allowing for the development of potential core user groups. High-aggregation markets often experience lower user loyalty, while low-aggregation markets face significant initial pressures [9].
中国还是不是水大鱼大?
吴晓波频道· 2025-07-21 00:37
Group 1 - The core issue for any country to succeed in business is whether there is a sufficiently large market [2] - The presence of brave entrepreneurs and innovators is essential when the market is abundant; otherwise, they may leave or fail to emerge [2][3] - The concept of "entrepreneurs of the era" and "the era of entrepreneurs" is highlighted, indicating a symbiotic relationship between market conditions and entrepreneurial spirit [3] Group 2 - Recent research into humanoid robots reveals a lot of speculation, but there is potential for significant opportunities in the future [4] - Some individuals believe they have missed their chance, thinking they possess the necessary technology and manufacturing capabilities, but the fundamental question remains whether the market in China is still large enough [5] - Identifying which segments of the market are experiencing growth is crucial for observing business opportunities [5]