刚入行做投研工作时，我的一位师友就教导过我， "投研的起点不是当下市场的主流观点，而是生意本 身。" 起初我觉得这句话非常生涩，因为在当时的我看来，投研的起点难道不应该是哪些行业和个股在风 口上、马上要涨吗？ 历经几轮周期洗礼后，我现在对这句话的理解有所加深。做投研，是要致力于去寻找那些能够买入并且长 期持有的公司，自己在晚上依然可以踏实安睡；与此同时，频繁跟踪和判断市场上的即时"信息"并非必选 项。如果借用段永平的说法"只买未来十年后依然强大的公司"，这个目标的出发点就是研究商业模式（生 意本身），想清楚公司赚的是什么钱、辛苦不辛苦、持续不持续， 商业模式甚至可以说是筛选公司的第 一标准。 很多时候，我们经常会粗浅地认为，因为规模经济性的存在，一家公司会随着其规模增长变得越来越强， 毕竟规模增长会带来单位平均成本的降低。但有的时候，一家公司随着规模增长仅仅是变大了而没有变 强。 过往的投研经历让我们 对增长需要不停开店的生意都保持相对谨慎 。例如一些生意可以线下开到过万家 店，单店模型依然优异，但线性外推需要谨慎，因为前期会有规模效应、品牌势能等，但越过最小规模经 济性后，开店密度、管理半径都可能遇到瓶颈， ...

商业模式的本质无外乎怎么赚钱、如何持续赚钱这两个问题。 为了让大家更清晰地理解这一点，我挑选了五本和商业模式相关的经典书籍，适合不同阶段的创业者、企业管理者阅读。 1、《经理人参阅：商业模式与商业思维》 如果要找一本既能打基础又能拓宽思维的商业模式好书，这本肯定是绕不过去的。它最大的价值在于能帮人重新审视"商业模式"这三个字。很多企业在成长 过程中容易陷入一种惯性：觉得赚钱就是把东西卖出去。但其实，商业模式是企业生存和扩张的底层逻辑，它决定了你是依靠规模取胜，还是依靠创新赢得 市场。 这本书对于想把企业做大的管理者来说，会带来不少启发。它不仅仅是一本理论书籍，更像是一把钥匙，帮人打开不同的思考维度。特别适合那些在战略层 面迷茫的领导者。 这是一本特别适合放在商业模式推荐书单里的作品。和很多强调执行的书不同，这本书核心思想是"创新"。它强调真正有价值的企业不是做别人已经做过的 事，而是要找到自己的独特路径。 这和商业模式的思考紧密相关。很多公司失败，不是因为执行不力，而是因为一开始选的方向就不对。模式的本质就是选择：选择市场、选择用户、选择盈 利逻辑。读这本书，能让人意识到，复制别人很容易，但真正成功的企业往往 ...

很多创业者的失败，并不能简单归因为产品不够好，而是因为在管理、战略和执行上出现了致命的漏洞。 在此推荐三本非常适合创业者阅读的书籍，它们都来自经理人参阅系列，分别从管理、实践和战略三个层面，给创业者提供了行动指南与思考工具。 1、《经理人参阅：创业管理学》 创业本身是一场复杂而系统的工程。光有想法是不够的，真正的挑战在于如何把想法转化为行动，再从行动变成结果。《经理人参阅：创业管理学》从创业 者的角度切入，把企业经营中不可回避的管理问题做了系统化的梳理。 创业并不是激情澎湃地带着几个人干活，而是要学会搭建合理的组织结构，学会资源的调度和管理，学会如何在团队中建立明确的目标与分工。很多人刚开 始创业时，总觉得"先干起来再说"，但往往正是因为缺少管理的基础，等业务稍有起色就被内部的混乱拖垮了。 这本书能让创业者意识到，创业不仅仅是产品和市场的较量，更是对管理能力的考验。一个没有管理意识的创业团队，很难走得长远。 2、《经理人参阅：精读德鲁克》 读书虽并不能让你马上学会经营一家公司，但却能让你建立起更清晰的商业认知与经商逻辑。 对创业者来说，能把德鲁克的思想转化为实际行动，可能比去听无数场创业演讲都来得更有价值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Mashang Consumer Finance, once a leader in the consumer finance industry, is facing significant challenges that threaten its IPO progress and future growth due to compliance, business model, and governance issues [2][4][10]. Group 1: Company Growth and Performance - Since its establishment in 2015, Mashang Consumer Finance has rapidly expanded its asset scale from less than 100 billion yuan in 2016 to 68.099 billion yuan by mid-2025 [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 8.734 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.96%, and a net profit of 1.154 billion yuan, up 8.07% from the previous year [3]. Group 2: Compliance Issues - The company has over 70,000 complaints on the Black Cat Complaint platform, highlighting serious compliance issues such as high-interest loans, aggressive collection practices, and personal information leaks [5]. - The actual annual interest rates for loans range from 7.2% to 36%, with some high-risk customers facing rates close to regulatory limits, raising concerns about the company's practices [5]. - The collection practices of some partner agencies have been criticized for using intimidation and harassment, particularly involving a subsidiary of a major shareholder [5]. Group 3: Business Model Challenges - The company relies on high-interest deposits from shareholders to ensure stable funding, which raises questions about potential conflicts of interest [6][7]. - Targeting high-risk, lower-tier customers has led to increased bad loan rates and collection costs, necessitating aggressive collection methods that may not be sustainable in the long term [6]. Group 4: Governance Structure Deficiencies - The board of directors has consistently had fewer than one-third independent directors, violating regulations and raising concerns about decision-making transparency [8]. - The company's ownership structure is fragmented, with no single shareholder holding more than 50%, which could lead to inefficiencies in decision-making and increased vulnerability to hostile takeovers [8]. Group 5: Path to Recovery - The company must shift from a scale-driven approach to one focused on compliance and quality to regain market and regulatory trust [10]. - Strengthening compliance management, improving customer service, and addressing consumer complaints are essential steps for rebuilding trust [11][13]. - The company should diversify its customer base and enhance risk management through technology to ensure sustainable growth [14]. - Increasing the proportion of independent directors and improving the ownership structure will enhance governance and decision-making efficiency [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].

Core Insights - The rapid adoption of AI models has surpassed expectations, with 40% of employees in the U.S. using AI at work, up from 20% a year ago, indicating a faster and broader integration compared to previous technological advancements like electricity and the internet [1][2][3] Group 1: User Behavior and Preferences - OpenAI and Anthropic's reports provide complementary insights into user behavior, highlighting differences in user demographics and usage scenarios between consumer and enterprise segments [2][5] - ChatGPT's usage is predominantly non-work-related, with 73% of interactions falling outside work, while Claude.ai shows a stronger preference for technical tasks, with 36% of tasks related to computer and mathematics [6][8] - ChatGPT users engage in collaborative interactions, with 52% seeking information and 35% executing tasks, whereas Claude users lean towards automation, with 77% of interactions being task execution [9][10] Group 2: Geographic and Demographic Insights - ChatGPT has a younger user base and is rapidly expanding in emerging markets, while Claude's usage is concentrated in high-income, digitally advanced regions, with a strong correlation between usage frequency and local income levels [12][14] - The AI Usage Index (AUI) reveals that high-income countries like Israel and Singapore have significantly higher usage rates, indicating a tiered adoption landscape [26] Group 3: Strategic Insights for Entrepreneurs - The reports suggest that the focus should be on identifying "must-have scenarios" rather than merely following popular trends, emphasizing the importance of sustainable user habits [21][34] - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to prioritize system integration and context provision over pricing concerns, as the latter has minimal impact on adoption rates [31][35] - The shift from "repair" to "creation" in AI applications indicates a growing market for innovative solutions that require new content generation rather than mere debugging [32] Group 4: Future Directions - The divergence in user interaction models suggests that products should either focus on collaborative learning for consumers or full automation for enterprises, as hybrid models may struggle to find a competitive edge [33][36] - The ability to shape demand through product strategy is crucial, as evidenced by how ChatGPT and Claude have defined their market positions [36][37]

Core Concept - The article presents a comprehensive framework for industry research, focusing on the industry lifecycle, business models, market size, and competitive landscape, providing investors with essential tools for informed decision-making [2][4][21] Industry Lifecycle - Industries can be categorized into four stages based on revenue: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, reflecting changes in customer demographics and market dynamics [4][5] - The introduction phase features innovative products with uncertain market potential, while the growth phase sees an increase in user adoption and revenue [4][5] - In the maturity phase, revenue growth slows as new customer acquisition diminishes, leading to increased competition and potential market share consolidation [5][6] - The decline phase is characterized by stagnant user growth and the emergence of substitutes, where only companies with significant scale or cost advantages can maintain competitiveness [5][6] Research Focus by Lifecycle Stage - In the introduction phase, the primary concern is the feasibility of the business model, assessing real demand and sustainable profitability [7][10] - For the growth phase, the focus shifts to estimating market size and potential growth over the next 3-5 years to ensure sufficient growth opportunities [7][14] - In the maturity phase, evaluating the industry's competitive advantages and potential for new market opportunities becomes crucial [8][15] - During the decline phase, research should pivot towards substitutes and alternative investment opportunities [8][19] Market Size and Concentration - Market size is typically measured by sales revenue, with larger markets being essential for the emergence of significant companies [13][14] - Different market size metrics are relevant at various lifecycle stages: Total Addressable Market (TAM) in the introduction phase, Serviceable Available Market (SAM) and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) in the growth and maturity phases [13][14] - Industry concentration levels impact profitability, with higher concentration often leading to better profit margins [20] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is critical in determining future profitability, with horizontal competition (among peers) and vertical relationships (upstream and downstream) both influencing market dynamics [19][20] - Understanding market share and industry concentration helps gauge profitability potential, with high concentration indicating better profit prospects [20] - The ability to maintain a competitive edge through unique advantages, such as brand strength or cost leadership, is vital for long-term success [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public relations crisis surrounding Xibei is not just an isolated incident but reflects a broader shift in consumer sentiment and the restaurant industry's challenges in maintaining value perception amidst rising transparency and competition [2][14]. Consumer Sentiment Shift - The "central kitchen + prepared dishes" model of Xibei has been in place for years, but the recent scrutiny is linked to changes in the economic cycle and consumer behavior [2]. - In the past, consumers were willing to pay a premium for brand value and identity, but now they are more price-sensitive and critical of the cost structures behind products [2][3]. - The anger from consumers represents a reckoning with the long-standing imbalance in perceived value versus actual cost [4]. Prepared Dishes Market Dynamics - The rapid rise of the B2C prepared dishes market has led consumers to gain a clearer understanding of the cost baseline for such products, with quality offerings available at lower prices [7]. - Xibei's dishes are now being compared to commercially available prepared dishes, leading to a perception shift where consumers feel they are paying for heating services and dining space rather than gourmet meals [8][9]. Value Perception and Transparency - The shift in consumer perception has transformed dissatisfaction from a vague feeling of being overcharged to a precise, data-supported sense of value extraction [11][13]. - In an era of information transparency, business models relying on information asymmetry face systemic challenges [12]. Broader Implications for the Industry - The crisis at Xibei serves as a warning for all companies that depend on brand premiums without solid value backing [14]. - In a time when consumer spending is scrutinized, sincerity and pricing that aligns with genuine value are essential for business survival [15].

Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 22.856 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of 18.99% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was -176 million yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement of 40.62% [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue reached 12.816 billion yuan, up 15.82% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -67.67 million yuan, an increase of 49.98% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved by 10.72% year-on-year to 3.35%, and the net margin increased by 46.16% year-on-year to -1.13% [1] - Total selling, administrative, and financial expenses amounted to 1.071 billion yuan, accounting for 4.69% of revenue, a decrease of 19.62% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share were -0.04 yuan, an increase of 40.69% year-on-year, while operating cash flow per share was 0.46 yuan, up 749.41% year-on-year [1] Business Evaluation - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 1.99% last year, indicating weak capital returns [2] - The net profit margin was -0.17%, suggesting low added value in products or services [2] - Historical data shows a median ROIC of 1.72% over the past decade, with two years of losses since the company went public, indicating a fragile business model [2] Debt and Cash Flow Analysis - The company has a healthy cash asset position, but attention is needed on cash flow metrics [3][4] - The ratio of cash and cash equivalents to current liabilities is 50.5%, and the average operating cash flow over the past three years to current liabilities is only 9.03% [4] - The interest-bearing debt ratio is 45.9%, and the ratio of interest-bearing liabilities to the average operating cash flow over the past three years is 12.81% [4] - Financial expenses account for 53.15% of the average operating cash flow over the past three years, indicating potential financial strain [4] Accounts Receivable - The accounts receivable to profit ratio has reached 1486.77%, suggesting significant concerns regarding receivables management [5] Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding in the company is the Dongfanghong Qiheng Mixed Fund, with 53.1366 million shares, which has reduced its holdings [5] - Other funds, such as Huatai-PB Growth Mixed A and Huatai-PB Fundamental Smart A, have increased their positions in the company [5] - The largest fund currently has a scale of 631 million yuan, with a recent net value increase of 1.92% and a yearly increase of 28.66% [5]

Core Insights - The company Compton (603798) reported a total revenue of 575 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 4.95% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.91% to 53.73 million yuan [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a significant decline in revenue, with total revenue of 213 million yuan, down 18.77% year-on-year, and a net profit of -556,700 yuan, a decrease of 114.67% [1] - Despite the decline in revenue, the company's profitability improved, with a gross margin increase of 9.9% to 22.97% and a net margin increase of 19.48% to 9.98% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 605 million yuan, compared to 575 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a decline of 4.95% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose from 45.96 million yuan in 2024 to 53.73 million yuan in 2025, an increase of 16.91% [1] - The company's gross margin improved from 20.90% in 2024 to 22.97% in 2025, while the net margin increased from 8.35% to 9.98% [1] Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported cash and cash equivalents of 449 million yuan in 2025, a significant increase of 40.56% from 319 million yuan in 2024 [1] - Accounts receivable decreased by 54.58% from 163 million yuan in 2024 to 74.20 million yuan in 2025, indicating improved collection efficiency [1] - Interest-bearing debt reduced from 30 million yuan in 2024 to 20.73 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 30.90%, reflecting better debt management [1] Operational Efficiency - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 45.73 million yuan, accounting for 7.95% of revenue, down 3.21% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share increased from 0.18 yuan in 2024 to 0.21 yuan in 2025, a growth of 16.67% [1] - Operating cash flow per share improved from 0.46 yuan to 0.57 yuan, marking a 23.93% increase [1] Business Model and Market Position - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 5.25% last year, indicating average capital returns [3] - The historical median ROIC since the company went public is 12.15%, suggesting a generally favorable investment return [3] - The company relies heavily on marketing-driven performance, necessitating further analysis of the underlying drivers [3]