Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a divergence in transaction volumes, with a steady reduction in land acquisition by developers, which is expected to improve the new housing market outlook [2][4]. - New housing transaction volumes in major cities have shown a week-on-week increase, with a total of 1.49 million square meters sold in the top 30 cities during the 5th week of 2026, representing a 12.15% increase from the previous week [4]. - The report highlights that the supply-demand relationship for new homes is improving due to the continued reduction in land purchases by developers [4]. Summary by Sections - **Transaction Data**: In the 5th week of 2026, new home sales in first-tier cities reached 430,000 square meters (up 8.3% week-on-week), second-tier cities 730,000 square meters (up 11.7%), and third-tier cities 330,000 square meters (up 18.7%) [4]. - **Year-on-Year Comparisons**: Cumulative sales for the first five days of February 2026 in the 30 cities amounted to 990,000 square meters, down 16.05% compared to January [4]. - **Land Supply and Sales**: In the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, land supply was 9.91 million square meters, with land sales reaching 12.05 million square meters, resulting in a supply-to-sales ratio of 0.82 [4]. - **Inventory and Clearance Cycles**: The report notes that the inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities increased to 26.45 months in January 2026, reflecting a 0.82% rise month-on-month [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable outlook for the real estate market, with expectations of a weak rebound in transactions amid high inventory clearance cycles and uncertain policy conditions as the year-end approaches [1][10]. Core Insights - Last week, major cities experienced a rebound in new home transactions, with a total of 1.58 million square meters sold, reflecting a 0.72% increase week-on-week but a 30.5% decrease year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 3.8% increase week-on-week, while second-tier cities experienced a 3.79% decline [11]. - The cumulative transaction area from November 1-13, 2025, reached 2.68 million square meters, up 42.8% from October 2025 but down 38% year-on-year. First-tier cities contributed 750,000 square meters, marking a 43% increase from October 2025 but a 43% decrease year-on-year [11]. - Second-hand home transactions in 24 cities also showed a rebound, totaling 2.12 million square meters, up 2.82% week-on-week but down 20% year-on-year. Cumulative transactions from November 1-13 reached 4.06 million square meters, up 106.3% from October 2025 but down 22.4% year-on-year [12]. Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In the 46th week of 2025, new home transactions in 30 major cities reached 1.58 million square meters, with first-tier cities selling 440,000 square meters, second-tier cities 810,000 square meters, and third-tier cities 340,000 square meters [11]. - The year-on-year comparisons show significant declines, with first-tier cities down 42%, second-tier cities down 24%, and third-tier cities down 25.6% [11]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - The report highlights a total of 2.12 million square meters sold in second-hand homes across 24 cities, with first-tier cities at 849,800 square meters, second-tier cities at 851,000 square meters, and third-tier cities at 421,500 square meters [12]. - Year-on-year declines are noted, with first-tier cities down 19.5%, second-tier cities down 26.9%, and third-tier cities down 2.56% [12]. Land Transactions - The report indicates a slowdown in land transaction growth, with 6.31 million square meters sold and a supply-to-sales ratio of 5.66. The cumulative land supply in 100 cities was 712.69 million square meters, down 14% year-on-year [11][12]. - The cumulative land transfer amount reached RMB 1.848 trillion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.21% year-on-year [12]. Inventory Clearance Cycles - The inventory clearance cycle in 35 cities was reported at 23.13 months, an increase of 2.5% from the previous month and 0.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued rise in inventory levels [13].