[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 涂力磊(分析师) 021-23185710 tulilei@gtht.com S0880525040101 谢皓宇(分析师) 010-83939826 xiehaoyu@gtht.com S0880518010002 谢盐(分析师) 021-23185696 xieyan@gtht.com S0880525040098 本报告导读： 上周（1 月 30 日-2 月 5 日）地产成交分化。上周政策面保持平静，房企持续减少 拿地有助于新房成交的逐步回稳。维持行业"增持"评级。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《第 5周成交震荡，房企降杠杆有利未来高 质量发展》2026.02.01 房地产《商业不动产 REITs，资产出表再添工具》 2026.01.31 房地产《核心销售趋于均衡，投资开发仍需助力》 2026.01.29 房地产《第 4周成交涨跌互现，供给下降有利市场 重获均衡》2026.01.25 房地产《通胀好转，资产价格预期受益》2026.01.20 证 券 研 究 报 告 第 6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, under the "controlling incremental" policy, the national land transaction volume continued to decline, but the decline significantly narrowed. The full - year transaction volume was about 3.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9%, and the decline decreased by 9 percentage points year - on - year. The premium rate was about 7.5%, a year - on - year increase of 1.25 percentage points, and the proportion of land purchased by urban investment companies was around 45%, a year - on - year decrease of 6 percentage points [6][9]. - Looking forward, land supply may continue to be optimized, and the decline in land transaction volume may narrow, driving the year - on - year decline in land transfer income in government fund revenue to continue narrowing. Attention should be paid to land supply in core cities and the confidence of real - estate enterprises in land acquisition [6][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 National Land Transaction Changes - In 2025, the central government made efforts in demand, supply, and real - estate enterprise financing to promote the market to "stop falling and stabilize". The land transaction volume continued to decline but with a narrowing decline. Structurally, in the first half of the year, the transaction volume increased by 12% year - on - year, decreased by 7% in the third quarter, and decreased by 22% in the fourth quarter, with a significant increase in urban investment companies' land acquisition for support [6][9]. 3.2 2025 Provincial and Municipal Land Transaction Status Analysis 3.2.1 Provincial Land Transactions - In terms of transaction volume, Jiangsu and Zhejiang exceeded 400 billion yuan, Shandong and Guangdong exceeded 200 billion yuan, and Qinghai and Ningxia were less than 10 billion yuan. 14 provinces had year - on - year growth, with Jilin at 84%, while Shaanxi decreased by 37%, and Jiangsu and Guangxi decreased by over 20% [2][20]. - In terms of premium rate, 15 provinces exceeded 5%, with Zhejiang, Shanghai, etc. exceeding 10%, and Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Shaanxi less than 2%. 20 provinces had a year - on - year increase, with Zhejiang increasing by nearly 11 percentage points, and Guangxi decreasing by about 9 percentage points [2][21]. 3.2.2 Top 30 Cities in Land Transaction Volume - The top 30 cities in land transaction volume were mainly in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Hangzhou had the highest transaction volume at 183 billion yuan, followed by cities with over 70 billion yuan. 10 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng and Changzhou decreased by over 50% [3][23]. - In terms of premium rate, Shenzhen and Hangzhou were around 30%. 17 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hangzhou, Jinhua, and Taizhou increasing by 10 percentage points or more, and Yangzhou decreasing by 48 percentage points [3][23]. 3.3 2025 Provincial and Municipal Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Status Analysis 3.3.1 Provincial Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition - In terms of land acquisition amount, Jiangsu ranked first at 332.2 billion yuan, with Shandong, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Sichuan exceeding 100 billion yuan. 9 provinces had year - on - year growth, and Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi decreased by over 50% [4][25]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 10 provinces had a proportion over 50%, concentrated in the central and western regions. 9 provinces had a year - on - year increase, and Liaoning decreased by over 20 percentage points [4][25]. 3.3.2 Top 30 Cities in Urban Investment Company Land Acquisition Amount - The top 30 cities in urban investment company land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu. Nantong, Wuhan, and Nanjing exceeded 40 billion yuan. 7 cities had year - on - year growth, and Yancheng, Changzhou, and Xi'an decreased by over 50% [5][27]. - In terms of the proportion of land acquisition, 19 cities had a proportion over 50%, with Yangzhou at 80% and Hangzhou at 12%. 6 cities had a year - on - year increase, with Hefei increasing by nearly 12 percentage points and Wuxi decreasing by nearly 27 percentage points [5][27]. 3.3.3 Top 30 Urban Investment Entities in Land Acquisition Amount - In 2025, the top 30 urban investment entities in land acquisition amount were mainly in Jiangsu and Fujian. Wuhan Urban Construction Ruizhen Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. had the highest amount at 12.9 billion yuan. Beijing Huarong Infrastructure Investment Co., Ltd. had the highest proportion of local land transaction volume at 100% [29].

Core Insights - The Beijing Changping District has seen a recent land transaction where a consortium led by Beijing Urban Construction Investment Development Co., Ltd. acquired a key village redevelopment project for a base price of 2.809 billion yuan, translating to an approximate floor price of 32,000 yuan per square meter [1][4] Group 1: Land Transaction Details - The acquired land is located in Dongxiaokou Town, covering an area of approximately 31,300 square meters with a planned building area of about 87,800 square meters and a plot ratio of 2.8 [1] - The site requires the construction of a 500 square meter community management service facility, which will be handed over to the relevant authorities upon completion [1] - The geographical location of the site is strategic, situated between the North Fifth and North Sixth Ring Roads, approximately 3 kilometers from the North Fifth Ring Road, and adjacent to Haidian District [1] Group 2: Surrounding Infrastructure and Market Context - The site is near the under-construction Metro Line 13B, expected to open next year, and is surrounded by various amenities including shopping centers and parks, enhancing its livability [2] - The Dongxiaokou area has not seen new residential land supply in over five years, with the last land sale occurring in February 2020 at an average selling price of approximately 58,000 yuan per square meter [3] - Current second-hand housing prices in the vicinity are around 40,000 yuan per square meter for older units, while newer units range from 60,000 to 80,000 yuan per square meter [3] Group 3: Future Development and Challenges - The project is expected to face challenges such as a plot ratio of 2.8 and a building height limit of 60 meters, which may restrict product types [3] - There are uncertainties regarding the completion of the metro line and the establishment of educational facilities, which could impact the project's value realization [3] - Upcoming land supply in November includes six residential plots across various districts, totaling an area of 202,600 square meters and a starting price of approximately 12.0536 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][53]. Core Insights - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 shows a trend of reduced volume but improved quality, with a slight cooling in the third quarter. The fourth quarter is expected to be a peak period for land sales, warranting attention to the performance of various cities in terms of volume and price [2][3]. - The average premium rate for land transactions in major cities has increased, indicating a heightened focus on core urban areas. The average premium rate for sample cities in the first three quarters of 2025 was 5%, up 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [30][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Land Market Overview - The land market in the first three quarters of 2025 experienced a contraction in transaction volume, with a total land supply of 63,680 million square meters, down 15.5% year-on-year. The transaction area was 47,827 million square meters, a decrease of 8.4%, while the transaction amount increased by 6.7% to 15,746 billion yuan, driven by a 17.9% rise in average transaction price to 3,292 yuan per square meter [7][8][23]. 2. Premium Rates and Market Focus - The premium rates for land transactions in first-tier cities remain relatively high, with an average of 12.9%, reflecting a 7.3 percentage point increase year-on-year. Cities like Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chengdu maintain high premium rates, with Hangzhou at 29.2% [30][38]. 3. Investment Strategies of Key Real Estate Companies - In the first three quarters of 2025, ten real estate companies achieved over 10 billion yuan in land acquisition, with nine being state-owned enterprises. The report highlights that the land acquisition intensity of key companies has increased, with the average acquisition intensity for major firms rising [44][49]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating and suggests specific stocks for investment, including Vanke A, Poly Development, and China Overseas Development among others [53][55].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market in major Chinese cities, highlighting that while supply may decrease in quantity, the quality of offerings is expected to improve, which could maintain market activity but may not significantly boost transaction volumes [1][26]. Group 1: Land Transaction Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, land transaction amounts in 300 cities increased by 9% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities performing significantly better than third and fourth-tier cities [3][5]. - The total land transaction area was 38,982 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of about 10% [5][8]. - Major cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Chengdu accounted for 37% of national land transaction amounts, with each exceeding 350 billion yuan in transactions [8][9]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The expected new supply in five key cities over the next nine months is projected to be 1,944 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29% [11][14]. - The supply peak for projects in Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, with over 50% of new supply expected during this period [14][15]. - In contrast, Beijing's supply peak is expected in the first quarter of 2026, while Xi'an's supply rhythm has slowed due to a sluggish housing market [15][18]. Group 3: Product Mix and Market Dynamics - The anticipated new supply will primarily consist of affordable and upgraded housing products, with significant variations in supply and demand across different cities [18][25]. - In Beijing, the proportion of affordable housing is expected to be 29.2%, while in Xi'an, it could reach 62.2%, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand for different product tiers [25][41]. - The supply of mid-range products in Chengdu is expected to be severely insufficient, while high-end products may face oversupply in Shanghai [30][32]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply dynamics in cities like Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Chengdu are expected to stabilize market activity, but the overall impact on transaction volumes may be limited due to declining supply [26][45]. - In contrast, cities like Beijing and Xi'an face potential inventory pressure due to longer absorption cycles, which could lead to market imbalances [45].

Group 1 - Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate reported a 121.96% month-on-month increase in the transaction area of newly built commercial residential properties in Shanghai last week [1] - Hunan Liuyang introduced new policies to increase deed tax support and implement home purchase subsidies [1] - Shenyang adjusted the upper limit of the housing provident fund contribution base [1] Group 2 - Ningbo Banking Association held a meeting to stop the practice of "rebates" on housing loans [1] - Nanjing saw 13 residential land plots sold for nearly 6.9 billion, with 2 plots having a premium rate exceeding 30% [1] - Greenland Holdings clarified rumors regarding the disappearance of its Executive President Chen Jun, stating he is still "performing his duties normally" [1] Group 3 - Shenzhen Deep Industry Group won a residential land plot in Longhua, Shenzhen for a base price of 1.906 billion [1] - The Meilin area in Shenzhen has undergone planning adjustments, adding a new residential land plot of 5,550 square meters [1] - Dongguan plans to supply 13 residential land plots this year, covering a total area of approximately 661.76 acres [1] Group 4 - The momentum of U.S. housing prices continues to cool, with significant regional differences still evident [1]

2025年第16周 Weekly 2025年4月14日-2025年4月20日，第16周土地成交规模持续回落，三四线土拍溢价率持续升温。本周重点 城市监测供应建筑面积206万平方米，环比下降24%。成交124万平方米，环比下降50%。本周一二线城市 仅出让了4宗含宅用地，均为底价出让，导致重点城市平均溢价率连续两周低于10%，不过三四线城市平均 溢价率再度攀高，达到8.8%，连续四周超过5%。 供应： 本周供应建筑面积206万平方米，环比下降24%。 本周供应含宅用地平均容积率为2.3，南京、西安、 宁波本周供应宅地平均容积率均不低于2.2，杭州本周供应宅地平均容积率也达到了1.9。 重点供应地块方面，4月14日，南京雨花台上新一宗宅地，起拍总价26.05亿元，容积率2.4，起拍楼板价1.6万 元/平方米。地块位于雨核板块的徐工片区，周边聚集着华为、中兴等软件公司，优质客源充沛，且教育、医 疗、生态资源等配套规划较为完善。小片区上一次土地出让是毗邻的2023G38地块，在2023年7月成交，成交 楼板价为2.4万元/平方米。目前同板块主力新房售价在3.7万元/平方米左右。 4月18日，杭州拱墅区新天地板块挂牌一 ...