相关机构表示，北半球虽处传统需求淡季，但中国原油进口量同环比大增，美国炼厂开工率维持高位， 成品油开启补库，全球石油需求预期被上修，显示需求韧性。 需求端呈现出"东方引领，西方稳健"的格局。国际能源署（IEA）基于宏观经济前景改善，上调了 2025/2026年全球石油需求增量预测。需求增长主要由非OECD国家贡献，其中中国的表现尤为关键。 2025年12月，中国原油进口量同比大幅增长17.4%，环比增长10.0%，反映了新一批进口配额下发后补 库需求的释放。国内汽柴油社会库存亦处于补库阶段。 在西方，美国炼厂开工率在集中检修后已提升至近四年高位，成品油库存开始累积，表明下游消费依然 稳健。尽管欧洲需求相对疲软，但全球需求引擎正由新兴市场驱动。同时，美联储步入降息周期，有望 从金融层面提振对原油等大宗商品的需求预期，尤其是对利率敏感的亚非拉地区成品油消费。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气开采及相关服务 领域，选取相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链上下游企业的整体表现。该指数成分股 具有较强的周期性特征，侧重于对能源行业的配置。 风险提示：提 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the textile, apparel, and luxury goods industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that if Nike's sales and inventory situation reaches a turning point by the end of this year, upstream manufacturing companies are expected to see a rebound in orders due to new product development and replenishment of old products. This is anticipated to lead to a recovery in net profit margins for many companies next year [2][5] - The report recommends several textile manufacturing companies related to the Nike supply chain, including Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, Crystal International, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Weixing Co., as well as retail company Tmall [2][5] Summary by Sections Inventory Cycle and Manufacturing - The U.S. apparel inventory cycle serves as a good indicator of the upstream textile manufacturing sector's health. The report reviews the performance of Chinese apparel manufacturing companies during historical inventory phases, indicating that stock prices and valuations are likely to recover as the industry transitions from active destocking to active restocking [4][24] - In the short term, the report notes that the impact of tariffs is diminishing, allowing the manufacturing sector to return to fundamental logic, emphasizing the importance of the inventory cycle switch and Nike's recovery [4][32] - Long-term trends indicate a shift towards globalization and core supplier systems in the apparel industry, with brand companies increasingly relying on core suppliers, which enhances the competitive landscape for leading manufacturers [4][32] Individual Companies - The report emphasizes the potential recovery opportunities for leading manufacturers in the Nike supply chain. If Nike's sales and inventory situation improves as expected, upstream manufacturing companies will likely see a rebound in orders, leading to a recovery in net profit margins for many companies next year [2][5] - The report specifically recommends textile manufacturing companies such as Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, Crystal International, Yue Yuen Industrial, and Weixing Co., along with retail company Tmall, as key investment opportunities [2][5]