Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for oil prices is a strong and volatile trend, while the medium - term suggests a bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The recent strengthening of the WTI monthly spread and the increase in the premium of WTI Cushing over WTI Midland and WTI MEH indicate a tight fundamental situation in Cushing. This is mainly due to the reduction of Canadian light crude components flowing south to Cushing for blending, caused by wildfires and oil sands refinery maintenance. However, this only represents a local issue in the Midwest crude oil market. Usually, after the Canadian oil sands refinery maintenance ends in June, the situation will recover, and the current price difference will drive more Midland crude to flow to Cushing, suppressing the structural strengthening trend of Cushing [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 31 cents to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.47%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 17 cents to $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 0.25%. The SC crude oil main contract rose 0.54% to 482 yuan per barrel [1] - The EIA Short - Term Energy Outlook Report predicts that the average prices of WTI crude oil in the next two years will be $62.33 per barrel and $55.58 per barrel respectively (previously $61.81 per barrel and $55.24 per barrel), and the average prices of Brent crude oil will be $65.97 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel respectively (previously $65.85 per barrel and $59.24 per barrel). It is also predicted that the average daily output of US crude oil this year will be about 13.4 million barrels, and it will drop to about 13.37 million barrels next year [1] - The EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45 per barrel in a new round of sanctions and ban the use of energy infrastructure including the "Nord Stream" pipeline. In response, Russian President Putin extended the ban on oil sales to buyers who comply with the crude oil price cap [1] - OPEC Secretary - General Al - Ghais said that oil demand will maintain strong growth in the next 25 years. OPEC expects that global energy demand will increase by 24% from now to 2050, and during this period, oil demand will exceed 120 million barrels per day [1] - In the week ending June 6 in the US, the API crude oil inventory was - 370,000 barrels (expected 100,000 barrels, previous value - 3.3 million barrels); the Cushing crude oil inventory was - 728,000 barrels (previous value 952,000 barrels); crude oil imports were - 117,000 barrels (previous value 141,000 barrels); gasoline inventory was 2.969 million barrels (expected 1.177 million barrels, previous value 4.7 million barrels); the volume of crude oil put into production was 152,000 barrels per day (previous value 316,000 barrels per day) [1] Strategy - Short - term: The oil price will be in a strong and volatile state. Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [4]

点击注册小程序 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 OPEC+增产叠加地缘政治消息影响，本周油价跳水后大幅波动 免责声明 3月3日OPEC+决定从2025年4月至2026年9月逐月将产量配额上调约13-14万桶/日，在超产国家额外减产补 偿提交之前，至25年底OPEC+将累计增产123万桶/日，至26年底OPEC+将增产246万桶/日。本次OPEC+会 议决定的增产幅度与2024 年 12 月 5 日、2025年2月3日的会议决策完全相同，但是由于俄乌冲突前景、特 朗普关税和美西方对伊朗和俄罗斯制裁存在不确定性，此前市场推测OPEC+会再次推迟重启增产。根据 IEA的预测，2025年全球原油供给将增长190万桶/日，即使OPEC+维持产量不变，今年全球油市仍面临每 天45万桶的供应过剩。 近 ...