Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently in the off - season of consumption, with low production and demand, and inventory rising from a low level. The central bank's cut in re - lending and rediscount rates boosts market confidence to some extent, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the future. Short - term declines are due to the weakening of market sentiment driven by the correction of the stock market, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. For iron ore, the market is also in the off - season, with iron water production likely to decline seasonally, and supply is expected to fall due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere [2][4] - Technically, the steel futures price is oscillating within a narrow range of 100 yuan/ton, and may face a direction choice. The iron ore futures price is under pressure and has fallen near the 60 - day moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and may have some support [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar from 247 sample steel mills increased slightly, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the five major varieties increased slightly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand decreased month - on - month. The market is in the consumption off - season, with production and demand at a low level, and inventory rising from a low level [2] - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3099 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3265 yuan/ton, down 0.73% from last week. Spot prices also showed a downward trend to varying degrees. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.16 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.98 million tons, down 0.05% [3] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and conduct medium - term trading. Do not chase up or kill down. Wait for the bottom signal to be confirmed later and then add positions on dips. Pay attention to whether there is a possibility of an effective downward breakthrough in the short term [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Demand**: The market is still in the consumption off - season. Molten iron production is likely to decline seasonally. Last week, the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills remained basically unchanged. Steel and molten iron production are at a seasonal low, with limited room for significant increase or decrease. Steel mill restocking is nearly complete, and the market focuses more on spring consumption demand [4] - **Supply**: Global shipments increased slightly, but are expected to continue to decline in the later stage due to seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere. The arrival volume decreased, and port inventory continued to rise and reached a record high [4] - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 777.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.33% from last week; the SGX iron ore continuous - one settlement price was 102 US dollars/dry ton, down 2.46% from last week. Overseas iron ore shipments from Australia decreased by 2.29% week - on - week, while those from Brazil increased by 27.31% week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 1.53% week - on - week [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, patiently wait for the futures price to stabilize, and then look for opportunities to go long. Do not chase up or kill down [4] 3. Industry News - According to data from Zhaogang.com, as of the week ending February 4, the output of key steel products in the country was 397.41 million tons, a decrease of 32.69 million tons from the previous week; the apparent demand was 338.1 million tons, a decrease of 60.6 million tons from the previous week [6]

Core Insights - The inventory of passenger vehicles in China is projected to reach 3.28 million units by the end of September 2025, indicating an increase of 120,000 units from the previous month and 260,000 units from September 2024, reflecting a seasonal trend of inventory buildup in preparation for peak demand [1] Industry Summary - The passenger vehicle industry in China is experiencing a notable rise in inventory levels, with a total of 3.28 million units expected by September 2025 [1] - The increase in inventory is characterized by a month-over-month rise of 120,000 units and a year-over-year increase of 260,000 units, suggesting a strategic buildup ahead of peak sales periods [1]