上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 利好来了！ 据1月9日早盘公布的数据，CPI环比由降转涨，同比涨幅继续扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2%；PPI 环比上涨 0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。数据发布之后，A50开始直线拉升。A股各大指数集 体爆发。港股市场受外围市场影响，表现稍有落后。 盘中，沪指时隔10年再度突破4100点。截至午间收盘， 沪指涨0.3%，深成指涨0.57%，创业板指涨0.1%。 分析人士认为，物价数据进一步打消了市场对于经济处于通缩状态的预期，同时物价整体涨幅又在可控范围之 内。这种状态有利于权益资产的演绎，对于债市反而是不利因素。今早，国债期货跌幅一度扩大，30年期主 力合约跌0.30%，10年期主力合约跌0.05%。 值得注意的是，今天早上亚太市场整体表现也较好。日经225指数早盘收涨1.1%，报51692.7点。日本东证 指数早盘收涨0.7%。韩国股指由跌转涨。香港市场也跟随走强。恒生科技指数一度上涨超1%。 分析人士认为，A股市场走强的带动作用可能比较明显。而A股走强背后亦有利好经济数据支撑。据国家统计 局 ...

利好来了！ 如果今天继续收阳线，A股上证指数的表现将继续创造历史。而与此同时，融资余额持续增长，截至1月8日， 上交所融资余额报13060.06亿元，较前一交易日增加77.92亿元；深交所融资余额报12887.61亿元，较前一交易 日增加79.91亿元；两市合计25947.67亿元，较前一交易日增加157.83亿元。 那么，跨年行情是否一马平川？据中信建投研报，过去两年市场开年下跌有一个共性原因是全球流动性变化和 人民币的贬值压力。今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。人民币汇率保持强劲，有利 的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整体宽松，也有利于跨年行情的展 开。人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面积极信号等多重利好共同推动港股开年 大涨，这些利好也同样有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 天风证券研报认为，2026年上半年或迎降准降息窗口，政策宽松预期升温。复盘2020年—2025年央行操作，降 息集中于Q2至Q3，仅2020年、2022年因疫情冲击在Q1落地；降准则多发生于Q1与Q3，9月、12月为高频时 点。当前DR007升至1.52%、 ...

昨日，焦煤、焦炭期货多个合约涨停。此外，A股煤炭板块大涨，大有能源涨停，陕西黑猫回封涨停， 郑州煤电逼近涨停，潞安环能、山西焦煤、晋控煤业均涨超6%。 | 焦炭 2601 | 1500.0 | +4.31% | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 2601 | | | | 焦炭2602 | 1579.0 | +7.82% | | 期货 2602 | | | | 焦炭2603 | 1594.5 | +7.99% | | 期货 2603 | | | | 焦炭 2604 | 1758.0 | +6.13% | | 期货 2604 | | | | 焦炭 2605 | 1773.0 | +7.98% | | 期货 2605 | | | | 焦炭2606 | 1776.0 | +5.75% | | 期货 2606 | | | | 焦炭 2607 | 1825.5 | +5.25% | | 期货 2607 | | | | 焦炭 2608 | 1842.5 | +5.32% | | 期货 2608 | | | | 焦炭2609 | 1851.5 | +7.99% | | 期货 12609 | | | | 焦炭 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货国债周报 发行规模扩张 机构配置意愿增强 20251228 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 国债期货价格 图：30年期国债期货收盘价略有反弹 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 • 本周债券市场整体运行平稳，发行规模显著扩张，利率债与信用债共发行881只，发行总额达11888.74亿元，显示各类主体 融资需求旺盛。而本周 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 合成橡胶数据日报 | 从业资格证号:F3071622 | | | 2025/12/25 | 国贸期货研究院 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 能源化工研究中心：叶海文 单位 前目 | 淵跌 | 涨跌幅 | 行情综述 | 指标 | | 现值 | | | | | | 11175 元/吨 11395 元/吨 11210 11255 | 220.00 -45.00 | 1.97% -0.40% | | 收盘价 结算价 | | | -4086.00 | -3.96% | | BR2602.SHF | | 99013 103099 포 191046 156564 | 34482.00 | 22.02% | | 国内盘面 持む量 成父宣 | | ま 23490 22510 | 980.00 | 4.35% | | 仓单数量 | | -10 -15 元/吨 | 5.00 | 33.33% | | 连一连二 | | | | | | 月间价差 | | -5 -15 元/吨 | 10.00 | 66.67% | ( ...

份额方面，公司债ETF最新份额达2.56亿份，创近半年新高。（数据来源：Wind） 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近16天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得6.72亿元净流入，合 计"吸金"16.47亿元，日均净流入达1.03亿元。（数据来源：Wind） 机构认为债市期限分化明显，长端冲高回落，超长端再度转弱。债市走势呈现明显期限分化，长债未能 延续前一交易日的单边上涨态势。早盘盘面偏空震荡，临近午间多头情绪升温，在央行呵护态度明确、 降准降息预期抬升的背景下，交易盘集中入场，超长端一度快速走强，30Y国债收益率下破2.23%。但 整体反弹力度明显弱于昨日，且盘中很快出现逆转。午后消息称"通过降准大幅释放流动性的必要性不 强"也引起关注，市场将其解读为利空、预期降准时点延后，导致多头情绪快速转弱。午后国债期货跳 水，券商转为卖出主力，长端收益率再度上行，超长端回吐日内全部涨幅，尾盘继续上探并升破 2.25%。相比之下，中短端在流动性呵护下维持偏强，多数券种收益率下行约1BP。年末央行继续加大 流动性呵护，隔夜及7天资金利率整体保持稳定，但跨年资金价格明显走高。DR014加权利率盘初一度 升至1.62%上方， ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing slight differentiation, with expectations for monetary easing reignited by recent economic data, leading to a mixed performance in government bond futures and a modest decline in interbank bond yields [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year main contract down 0.19% to 111.39, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts saw slight increases of 0.05% and 0.03%, respectively [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 30-year special government bond yield down 1.55 basis points to 2.2675%, and the 10-year government bond yield down 1 basis point to 1.849% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield down 1.86 basis points to 3.504% and the 30-year yield up 0.31 basis points to 4.847% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 0.2 basis points to 1.956% [4]. Primary Market - In Heilongjiang Province, the results of the local bond auction showed a bid-to-cover ratio exceeding 16 times, with the 5-year bond yield at 1.75% and the 10-year bond yield at 2.09% [5]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a 135.3 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 18 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate up 0.2 basis points to 1.276% and the 7-day rate down 0.3 basis points to 1.429% [6]. Institutional Views - Citic Securities noted that the overall liquidity in the market is currently loose, with expectations for potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the first half of next year [7]. - Huaxi Fixed Income suggested that the bond market sentiment remains cautious due to concerns over redemption fee regulations and long-term bond supply, despite the expectation of monetary easing [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market sentiment after the economic work conference from December 9th to December 15th, 2025 [4]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - During the period from December 9th to December 15th, the sentiment of bond market sellers increased slightly, while that of buyers continued to decline, showing a K-shaped divergence. The market divergence has increased, and the year - end bond allocation market is still weak, waiting for the catalytic effect of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted index was 0.21, up 0.13 from December 2nd to December 8th. Some institutions' views turned bullish. Currently, 7 institutions are bullish, 15 are neutral, and 2 are bearish. 29% of institutions are bullish due to insufficient domestic demand, slow credit and social financing data, expectations of further easing policies, oversold technical indicators, and released negative factors. 63% are neutral as the market is insensitive to positive factors, the stock market attracts funds, and bond investors are cautious. 8% are bearish as the bond market's rebound may end, and price recovery and the equity market's spring rally may suppress the bond market [12]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From December 9th to December 15th, the tracking unweighted sentiment index was 0.00, lower than that from December 2nd to December 8th. The sentiment index continued to decline. Currently, 4 institutions are bullish, 17 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 16% of institutions are bullish because of increased economic fundamental pressure, stronger expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and positive signals from the economic work conference. 68% are neutral as the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still exists, potential regulatory policy changes increase market uncertainty, and traditional allocation funds lack motivation. 16% are bearish as there is a policy vacuum at the turn of the year, lack of policy support, and capital games overriding fundamental logic [13].

Group 1 - The domestic bond market is under pressure, with long-term bond yields rising, particularly the 10-year government bond yield approaching 1.84% [2][3] - Concerns about the redemption of "fixed income +" funds and the implementation of new public fund sales regulations are contributing to market anxiety [2][4] - The recent debt extension issues faced by Vanke have negatively impacted market sentiment, primarily affecting credit bonds but also influencing interest rate bonds due to redemption pressures [2][5] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the bond market's incremental positive factors are limited, and the direction of monetary policy remains unclear, leading to weak overall market sentiment [4][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been conducting net withdrawals in the open market, but overall liquidity remains ample, with a recent net injection of 564 billion yuan [4][5] - Expectations for interest rate cuts are diminishing, with analysts indicating that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in December, it could provide more room for domestic rate cuts [6][7] Group 3 - The adjustment of banks' deposit structures, particularly the removal of 5-year fixed deposit products, may signal a shortening of the duration of bank liabilities, impacting their bond holding behavior [7][8] - The PBOC's emphasis on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships is seen as a key reference for the trend of long-term bond yields [8]

股债跷跷板效应不存在了？ 近期，国内债市持续承压，长债利率接连上行。11月27日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，10年期国债收益率 在1.84%附近向上震荡。 综合机构观点，近期债市承压一方面是因为政策上降息预期降温，另一方面是市场对"固收+"基金赎 回、公募基金销售新规落地存在担忧。与此同时，万科债券展期风波给市场情绪带来冲击，主要利空信 用债，但赎回压力下利率债也会受到波及。 临近年末，机构对震荡市的判断更为明显，降准降息预期仍是主要干扰因素。受访人士认为，综合考虑 内外部环境和地方债供给情况，岁末年初降准降息仍有空间。 10年期国债收益率回升至1.84% 不同于三季度较为明显的股债跷跷板效应，近期即使股市出现连续下跌，债市依旧表现偏弱。以10年期 国债品种为例，进入11月以来，"25附息国债16"收益率从1.79%一路上行至1.84%左右；30年期国债活 跃券收益率则从2.14%来到2.2%附近。 对此，财通证券固收分析师孙彬彬认为，从宏观逻辑上，债市的增量利好有限、货币政策方向不明确， 而前期利率债补涨结束，主流券种收益率下行有阻力，债市情绪整体较弱。从机构行为角度，他认为一 方面是因为保险大量赎回"固收+" ...