Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with a three-day upward trend, closing at 24,203 points, up 63 points or 0.3% [2] - The main board turnover was HKD 210.4 billion, a decrease of 35.1% from the previous day's high of HKD 324 billion [2] - Northbound trading maintained a net inflow status, with a significant increase of 372.7% in net inflow to HKD 8.243 billion [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The social financing data released by the People's Bank of China for the first half of 2025 exceeded expectations, with a total increase of CNY 22.8 trillion, a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [4] - New RMB loans amounted to CNY 12.9 trillion, indicating reasonable growth in financial volume and a continuous decline in financing costs [4] - Despite strong overall data, some monthly credit data showed weakness, reflecting uncertainty in corporate expectations [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year to HKD 27.01 billion, primarily due to weak offline consumption and reduced foot traffic [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 41.9% to HKD 1.29 billion, with the decline in profit outpacing revenue due to high fixed costs [6] - The company maintained a high dividend payout ratio of 135%, distributing a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [6] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is optimizing its store structure, reducing the number of direct-operated stores by 18.3% to 5,020, while focusing on improving operational efficiency [7] - The company is expanding its brand partnerships, including collaborations with high-end running brands, to diversify its brand matrix [7] - Future performance is expected to improve as retail consumption conditions recover, with projected EPS for FY26/27/28 at HKD 0.21/0.22/0.23, and a target price of HKD 3.6 based on a 16x PE for FY26 [7]

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a price increase of 0.41%, reaching 111.72 yuan as of June 9, 2025, indicating active market trading with a turnover of 14.11% and a transaction volume of 1.095 billion yuan [1] - The fund's latest scale has reached 7.748 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [2] - The fund's shares have also reached a one-year high of 69.5397 million shares, with a net inflow of 67.8564 million yuan recently [3] Liquidity and Market Conditions - Liquidity is expected to remain balanced and ample in June, with the central bank potentially resuming government bond purchases in June or the second half of the year [1] - The core fluctuation range for 10-year government bonds is anticipated to be between 1.5% and 1.8%, with a flat yield curve expected to persist for an extended period [1] Performance Metrics - As of June 6, 2025, the fund has achieved a net value increase of 14.56% over the past year, ranking 4th out of 390 in the index bond fund category [3] - The fund's highest monthly return since inception was 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being 4 months and a maximum increase of 10.58% [3] - The average monthly return during rising months is 2.20%, with a monthly profit percentage of 64.29% and a monthly profit probability of 69.23% [3] - The historical one-year profit probability stands at 100% [3] Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the fund is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Tracking Accuracy - The tracking error for the fund over the past year is 0.072% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].

Quantitative Models and Factor Analysis Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Macro Timing Strategy **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates macroeconomic signals to determine equity allocation recommendations. It incorporates economic growth and monetary liquidity signals to generate timing signals for equity investments[4][27]. **Construction Process**: 1. The model assigns weights to two dimensions: economic growth and monetary liquidity. 2. Signal strength is calculated for each dimension. For April, the economic growth signal strength was 0%, while the monetary liquidity signal strength was 50%[27]. 3. Based on these signals, the recommended equity allocation for April was 25%[27]. **Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to macro timing, but its performance is subject to changes in macroeconomic conditions[27]. - **Model Name**: Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model **Construction Idea**: This model uses indicators related to market sentiment and fundamentals to monitor micro-cap stock performance and rotation opportunities[31]. **Construction Process**: 1. **Rotation Signal**: The model tracks the relative net value of the Micro-Cap Index and the "Mao Index" (a benchmark index). A signal was triggered on October 14, 2024, when the Micro-Cap Index crossed above its annual moving average[31]. 2. **Risk Warning Indicators**: - **Volatility Congestion**: This indicator reflects market sentiment. On October 15, 2024, the indicator fell below its threshold, deactivating the risk warning[31]. - **10-Year Treasury Yield YoY**: This fundamental indicator remained at -20.45%, below the risk control threshold of 0.3[31]. **Evaluation**: The model effectively combines sentiment and fundamental indicators to guide micro-cap stock investments[31]. Model Backtesting Results - **Macro Timing Strategy**: - Year-to-date return: 1.06% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 1.90%[27] - **Micro-Cap Timing and Rotation Model**: - Volatility Congestion YoY: -50.09% - 10-Year Treasury Yield YoY: -28.69%[31][32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Volume-Price Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors capture market dynamics by analyzing trading volume and price volatility[5]. **Construction Process**: - **Low Trading Volume**: Measures stocks with lower trading activity. - **Low Volatility**: Identifies stocks with stable price movements[5]. **Evaluation**: These factors performed well in a low-risk appetite environment, benefiting from market stability[5]. - **Factor Name**: Consensus Expectation Factor **Construction Idea**: This factor reflects market expectations for stocks with strong earnings forecasts[5]. **Construction Process**: - Derived from analysts' earnings forecasts and target prices. - Tracks changes in consensus expectations over time[5]. **Evaluation**: The factor performed well due to investors' preference for certainty in volatile markets[5]. - **Factor Name**: Convertible Bond Selection Factors **Construction Idea**: These factors predict convertible bond performance based on their relationship with underlying stocks and valuation metrics[46]. **Construction Process**: - **Equity Factors**: Derived from the underlying stock's consensus expectations, growth, financial quality, and valuation. - **Valuation Factor**: Based on the premium rate between the convertible bond's parity and floor price[46]. **Evaluation**: The factors achieved positive returns, indicating their effectiveness in identifying outperforming convertible bonds[46]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Volume-Price Factors**: - Low Trading Volume: Positive performance in a low-risk appetite environment[5]. - Low Volatility: Positive performance in stable market conditions[5]. - **Consensus Expectation Factor**: - Positive performance due to strong earnings forecast alignment[5]. - **Convertible Bond Selection Factors**: - Positive multi-long-short returns for equity consensus expectation, equity valuation, and convertible bond valuation factors[46].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of black - related commodities including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke. It is expected that these commodities will generally show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Wednesday, rebar futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was 84 (+24). Due to the large - scale US tariff increase, prices are expected to face pressure today [1]. - Last week, rebar production and apparent consumption both slightly increased, and the speed of inventory reduction accelerated slightly. The inventory reduction of five major steel products was smooth, and there is still room for short - term hot metal production to rise [1]. - Domestic Two Sessions policy intensity basically met expectations, but economic data from January to February were still weak, with the real estate market in a continuous decline and infrastructure growth slightly improving [1]. - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices have fallen near the electric furnace valley electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a moderately low level. In terms of driving factors, the peak demand in the first half of the year is still in the verification period, and the impact of tariffs and domestic countermeasures need further observation. Prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Trump's tariff policy last night exceeded market expectations, and the RMB exchange rate was weak, which is expected to have a greater negative impact on iron ore swaps [1]. - The latest total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,647.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,630.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.50 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 237.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 million tons [1]. - The factors restricting the shipment of Australia and Brazil have subsided, and port inventories are facing upward pressure. The supply side is relatively strong. The blast furnace restart after the Spring Festival is nearly over, and subsequent production recovery is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of hot metal will slow down [1]. - Affected by the unexpected US tariff policy, there is a macro - level negative impact on ore prices. The market should pay attention to the 800 pressure level on the disk [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, some coal mines in the main production areas are restricted in production due to accidents and environmental protection factors. Coupled with the release of downstream replenishment demand, the supply of high - sulfur coal in the region has tightened, the trading atmosphere in the auction market has improved, and the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases [3]. - In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased month - on - month due to weak demand. Although the supply of Australian long - term resources is stable, the domestic spot price is weak, and the cost - performance advantage is insufficient, so traders are cautious in taking delivery [3]. - In terms of demand, the accelerated restart of steel mills has driven the increase in hot metal production, and the demand for coking enterprises to replenish raw materials has gradually been released, but its sustainability needs to be tracked [3]. - In general, the coking coal market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The core contradiction in the current market lies in the game between high supply and demand sustainability. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement signal of finished product demand and the change in imported coal cost [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, the production of coking enterprises in the main production areas has remained stable, the previous inventory pressure has gradually eased, some enterprises have accelerated the shipment by improving logistics efficiency, and the factory inventory has continued to decline [4]. - Although the profit level of coking enterprises is limited after the previous price adjustment, the production rhythm has not significantly shrunk under the support of rigid demand [4]. - In terms of demand, with the progress of blast furnace restart, the stable increase in hot metal production has driven the release of rigid demand for coke [4]. - At the cost end, the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases, and the marginal cost of coke entering the furnace has increased, forming a bottom support for prices. However, under the background of coking - steel game, the lack of sustainability of downstream replenishment is still a concern [4]. - In general, the supply - demand pattern of coke has marginally improved, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the elasticity of hot metal production, the realization of finished product consumption, and the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal cost [4]. Economic News - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [6]. - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to accelerate the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimize rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [6]. - As of April 1, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [6]. - The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway started a 30 - day spring maintenance project on April 1 [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 37 anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations or rulings initiated by foreign countries against Chinese steel products, including stainless - steel sinks and hot - rolled carbon steel pipes [6].