截至2025年6月9日 11:17，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.41%，最新价报111.72元。流动性方面，30 年国债ETF博时盘中换手14.11%，成交10.95亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至6月6日，30年国 债ETF博时近1月日均成交22.00亿元。 浙商证券认为，6月流动性有望维持均衡充裕状态，央行或将在6月或者下半年择机恢复国债买入操作， 降准降息的时间窗口可能在三季度，10年国债核心波动区间或在1.5%-1.8%，收益率曲线平坦预计持续 较长时间。 30年国债ETF博时紧密跟踪上证30年期国债指数，上证30年期国债指数从上海证券交易所上市的国债 中，选取符合中国金融期货交易所30年期国债期货近月合约可交割条件的债券作为指数样本，以反映沪 市相应期限国债的整体表现。 以上产品风险等级为： 中低（此为管理人评级，具体销售以各代销机构评级为准） 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 资金流入方面，30年国债ETF博时最新资金净流入6785.64万元。拉长时间看，近4个交易日内，合计"吸 金"7562.05万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30 ...

值得一提就是军工板块是当日绝对的主线，受相关的事件的催化而拉升。从交易属性来看，这次军工板 块上涨属于短线的一个行为，长期而言工行业规划性强，今年要完成前5年规划，前4年剩余的40%的订 单量，这个业绩的增长确定性较高，具备确定性发展的一个基础。不过去年行情启动以来，军工板块股 性较差，市场溢价不高，而且在今日市场整体冲高回落的一个情况下，很多军工股也出现了一个冲高回 落的一个现象。从长期中长期的逻辑来分析，结合巴以冲突等国际形势，以及我国在飞机、军舰等军备 装备领域展现出的一个强大的实力。军工板块具备一些向好的一些逻辑，但操作上需要精准的把握节 奏，这样才能更好的获取收益。 简单跟大家复一下盘。和讯投顾熊伟分析称，今天的市场整体指数呈现出略微放量的一个态势，成交额 大概在1.5万亿左右，不过市场走势冲高回落，出现了一个明显的兑现的一个动作。这反映出资金在当 前的位置上面有一定的分歧，有获利了了结的一个倾向。那么板块方面整体以轮动运行为主，早盘受降 准降息预期的驱动，金融板块里的租赁概念率先启动，房地产板块也跟着上涨，但后续由于市场承接不 足，这两个板块都出现了冲高回落，未能形成持续上涨的一个动能。那么盘中的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].

简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3180 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，05 合约基差 119（-8），特朗普宣布暂停多数国家 90 天关税、提高中国关税税率至 125%，外盘大涨，钢价跟随反弹。就钢材 而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨， 仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去 年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万 吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受 到一定冲击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策需要 进一步观察。短期来看，行情跟随关税政策上下波动，暂时观望为宜。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿期货价格大幅反弹，中国反制关税再加征 50%，市场波动率 提高。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨（+20）。普氏 62%指数 98.35 美元/吨（+2.60），月均 100.17 美元/吨。PBF 基差 98 元/吨 （+4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿 ...