Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a consumption off - season with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although group farms have not increased supply, some individual farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This indicates that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may cause more concentrated sales, leading to an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of this inventory cycle is more complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and individual farmers' hoarding behavior. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,010 yuan/ton, 13,490 yuan/ton, and 13,700 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 240 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 50,384 lots, 10,814 lots, and 4,715 lots respectively, with increases of 26,540 lots, 5,178 lots, and 44 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 69,001 lots, 44,390 lots, and 22,988 lots respectively, with increases of 1,125 lots, 822 lots, and 265 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 620 yuan/ton, 1,140 yuan/ton, and 930 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 140 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and - 35 yuan/ton. The Pig 9 - 11 spread is 520 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the short - term, due to the consumption off - season and increased selling by individual farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market's expectation of a future price increase may lead to more concentrated sales and an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of the inventory cycle is complex and needs further spot price verification. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market gaming sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to late July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged in combination with factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,880 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 16,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,375 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 13,695 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 13,775 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2509 contract is 40,300 lots, an increase of 14,639 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,505 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. The 2511 contract has a trading volume of 9,558 lots, an increase of 1,014 lots, and an open interest of 43,119 lots, an increase of 70 lots. The 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,085 lots, an increase of 1,223 lots, and an open interest of 20,483 lots, an increase of 403 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 505 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 1,185 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton; the 2601 contract is 1,105 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the 9 - 11 contracts is 680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3. Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase, with policy and near - term sentiment driving the market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent spot performance after the large - scale slaughter of piglets in mid - to late July. The inventory rotation path is complex, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are given [4]