Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. The market expects prices to rise from late July to early August, which may cause more concentrated sales and keep the spot market weak. The macro sentiment is strong recently, but the premium on the futures market has increased, and hedging profits have risen significantly. Piglet purchases will enter the off - season in August, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,230 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 13,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,440 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [4] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract is 14,210 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton; and the生猪2601 contract is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [4] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2509 contract is 79,187 lots, down 42,372 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 62,464 lots, down 4,839 lots; the生猪2511 contract has a trading volume of 21,662 lots, down 22,162 lots, and an open interest of 46,374 lots, down 732 lots; the生猪2601 contract has a trading volume of 27,110 lots, down 22,001 lots, and an open interest of 39,822 lots, up 1,068 lots [4] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the生猪2509 contract is - 135 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton year - on - year; the生猪2511 contract's basis is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the生猪2601 contract's basis is - 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread is 155 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; and the 11 - 1 spread is - 340 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [- 2,2]. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current period is the off - season for consumption, with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices, which confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. The report is waiting for the spot price verification at the end of the month. Recently, the macro - sentiment is strong, and the implementation of policies should be monitored. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,800 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,890 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the Pig 2509 contract is 14,365 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 230 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 235 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 contract is 14,110 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 290 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Pig 2509 contract is 60,032 lots, an increase of 31,070 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 64,259 lots, an increase of 600 lots; the Pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 25,211 lots, an increase of 16,970 lots, and an open interest of 44,029 lots, an increase of 126 lots; the Pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 24,904 lots, an increase of 19,029 lots, and an open interest of 29,487 lots, an increase of 5,388 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The Pig 2509 basis is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 180 yuan/ton; the Pig 2511 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the Pig 2601 basis is 370 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 240 yuan/ton; the Pig 9 - 11 spread is 495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [-2, 2]. The classification of strength includes weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Confirmation" and was released on July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analysts - The analysts are Zhou Xiaoqiu (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0001891, Email: zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com) and Wu Hao (Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0018592, Email: wuhao8@gtht.com) [2] Group 3: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 13,650 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 15,490 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Futures Prices**: LH2509 is 14,135 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 75 yuan/ton; LH2511 is 13,635 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 100 yuan/ton; LH2601 is 13,820 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [3] - **Trading Volumes and Open Interests**: LH2509 trading volume is 28,962 lots, an increase of 904 lots from the previous day, and open interest is 63,659 lots, a decrease of 1,152 lots; LH2511 trading volume is 8,241 lots, an increase of 2,423 lots, and open interest is 43,903 lots, a decrease of 271 lots; LH2601 trading volume is 5,875 lots, an increase of 2,340 lots, and open interest is 24,099 lots, an increase of 859 lots [3] - **Price Spreads**: LH2509 basis is 295 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 125 yuan/ton; LH2511 basis is 795 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 150 yuan/ton; LH2601 basis is 610 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 120 yuan/ton; LH9 - 11 spread is 500 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 25 yuan/ton; LH11 - 1 spread is -185 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 30 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 5: Market Logic - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms have not increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has increased, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects price increases from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. Wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends recently [5] - In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the unanimous bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - term sentiment, increasing the market gaming sentiment. The large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in mid - to late July, and subsequent spot performance should be monitored. The impact path of this round of inventory rotation is more complex and needs to be judged in combination with factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's pig holding. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 14,880 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 16,540 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the live hog 2509 contract is 14,375 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 13,695 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton; and the 2601 contract is 13,775 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the live hog 2509 contract is 40,300 lots, an increase of 14,639 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,505 lots, an increase of 2,765 lots. The 2511 contract has a trading volume of 9,558 lots, an increase of 1,014 lots, and an open interest of 43,119 lots, an increase of 70 lots. The 2601 contract has a trading volume of 5,085 lots, an increase of 1,223 lots, and an open interest of 20,483 lots, an increase of 403 lots [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the live hog 2509 contract is 505 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract is 1,185 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan/ton; the 2601 contract is 1,105 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton. The spread between the 9 - 11 contracts is 680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 11 - 1 contracts is - 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 3. Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading phase, with policy and near - term sentiment driving the market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent spot performance after the large - scale slaughter of piglets in mid - to late July. The inventory rotation path is complex, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are given [4]