Report Summary Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Reality Confirmation" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms haven't increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, causing a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. It's necessary to wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices: Henan is 14,480 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), Sichuan is 13,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and Guangdong is 15,790 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton) - Futures prices: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 13,750 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,058 lots (down 22,326 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 5,818 lots (down 4,996 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 3,535 lots (down 1,180 lots) - Open interest: The open interest of the pig 2509 contract is 64,811 lots (down 4,190 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 44,174 lots (down 216 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 23,240 lots (up 252 lots) [3] Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 420 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 945 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 730 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) - Inter - contract spreads: The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 525 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton), and the 11 - 1 spread is - 215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, which is in the neutral range within the [-2, 2] interval [4]

2025 年 7 月 17 日 生猪：情绪转向 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 14630 | | -100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 13900 | | -50 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 16090 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 | 比 | | | 生猪2509 | 元/吨 | 14010 | | -240 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 13490 | | -130 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 13700 | | -65 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | ...