Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot market performance of live pigs is below expectations, with near - term weakness. The market pressure is high due to factors such as the limited increase in demand and the planned increase in group slaughter volume in August. The September contract is expected to be mainly weak, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 14,430 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Sichuan, it is 13,700 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100; in Guangdong, it is 15,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 300 [2] - **Futures prices**: The price of the live pig 2509 contract is 14,055 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 20; the live pig 2511 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 35; the live pig 2601 contract is 14,180 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 [2] - **Trading volume and open interest**: The trading volume of the live pig 2509 contract is 31,356 lots, an increase of 2311 from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,971 lots, a decrease of 4228 from the previous day; the live pig 2511 contract has a trading volume of 24,661 lots, an increase of 7289 from the previous day, and an open interest of 51,204 lots, an increase of 583 from the previous day; the live pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 13,759 lots, a decrease of 3042 from the previous day, and an open interest of 40,395 lots, an increase of 180 from the previous day [2] - **Price differences**: The basis of the live pig 2509 contract is 375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 120; the live pig 2511 contract basis is 580 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135; the live pig 2601 contract basis is 250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65; the 9 - 11 spread is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the 11 - 1 spread is - 330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 70 [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3] 3. Market Logic - The market had a consistent expectation of price increases from late July to early August, but the group's volume - reduction and price - pulling were below expectations. There is panic among retail farmers and secondary fattening groups. The market pressure is high in August, and the September contract is expected to be weak. The macro - sentiment has strong support for the far - end, presenting a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price difference structure has switched to backwardation [4]

Report Summary Report Title - The report is titled "Pigs: Waiting for End-of-Month Reality Confirmation" and was released on July 18, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - Currently in the off - season of consumption, downstream digestion capacity is limited. Although large - scale farms haven't increased supply, some small - scale farmers' willingness to sell has risen, causing a rapid decline in spot prices. This confirms that the previous price increase was mainly due to inventory - building sentiment. The market expects a price increase from late July to early August, which may lead to more concentrated sales. It's necessary to wait for end - of - month spot price confirmation and pay attention to reserve policy trends. In August, the purchase of piglets will enter the off - season, and the 03 contract will enter the piglet pricing period, where production capacity and cost logic may have an impact. Stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Data Summary Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices: Henan is 14,480 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), Sichuan is 13,750 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and Guangdong is 15,790 yuan/ton (down 300 yuan/ton) - Futures prices: The price of the pig 2509 contract is 14,060 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 13,535 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 13,750 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [3] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume: The trading volume of the pig 2509 contract is 28,058 lots (down 22,326 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 5,818 lots (down 4,996 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 3,535 lots (down 1,180 lots) - Open interest: The open interest of the pig 2509 contract is 64,811 lots (down 4,190 lots), the pig 2511 contract is 44,174 lots (down 216 lots), and the pig 2601 contract is 23,240 lots (up 252 lots) [3] Price Spreads - Basis: The basis of the pig 2509 contract is 420 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton), the pig 2511 contract is 945 yuan/ton (down 195 yuan/ton), and the pig 2601 contract is 730 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan/ton) - Inter - contract spreads: The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is 525 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton), and the 11 - 1 spread is - 215 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, which is in the neutral range within the [-2, 2] interval [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current market is in a consumption off - season with limited downstream digestion capacity. Although group farms have not increased supply, some individual farmers' willingness to sell has risen, leading to a rapid decline in spot prices. This indicates that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may cause more concentrated sales, leading to an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of this inventory cycle is more complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and individual farmers' hoarding behavior. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,630 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 13,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 16,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 14,010 yuan/ton, 13,490 yuan/ton, and 13,700 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 240 yuan/ton, 130 yuan/ton, and 65 yuan/ton [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 50,384 lots, 10,814 lots, and 4,715 lots respectively, with increases of 26,540 lots, 5,178 lots, and 44 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 69,001 lots, 44,390 lots, and 22,988 lots respectively, with increases of 1,125 lots, 822 lots, and 265 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the Pig 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts are 620 yuan/ton, 1,140 yuan/ton, and 930 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 140 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton, and - 35 yuan/ton. The Pig 9 - 11 spread is 520 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year, and the Pig 11 - 1 spread is - 210 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]. 3.3 Market Logic - In the short - term, due to the consumption off - season and increased selling by individual farmers, the spot price has dropped rapidly. The market's expectation of a future price increase may lead to more concentrated sales and an early shift in market sentiment. Attention should be paid to policy trends after the spot price falls below 14 yuan/kg. The impact path of the inventory cycle is complex and needs further spot price verification. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract are 13,500 yuan/ton and 15,000 yuan/ton respectively [5].