委内瑞拉局势对原油及化工产业链影响 20260105 摘要 委内瑞拉原油产量受美国制裁和投资不足影响持续下降，目前仅占全球 供应约 1%，虽雪佛龙恢复经营带来部分恢复，但整体增量有限，大规 模增产需大量资本支出，短期内难以实现显著增长。 地缘政治风险（中东、俄乌冲突）虽持续扰动油价，但非核心定价因素。 俄罗斯原油出口虽未明显下降，但印度和中国进口减少，大量原油滞留 海上，库存问题及供应过剩将在 2026 年一季度显性化，短期支撑油价 但难改下行趋势。 海上浮仓库存因俄罗斯原油供应累积而上升，低价油挤占市场需求。中 国买家可能因新配额消化部分库存，但美国制裁不确定性增加风险规避 情绪，预计未来海上浮仓库存将逐渐下降，一季度需求淡季或损害常规 市场需求。 OPEC+一季度维持不增产政策，但市场环境已变，海上库存验证过剩预 期，外部竞争者潜力消耗，OPEC+内部闲置产能减少，增产意愿下降， 可能转向维持或减产以维护价格，2026 年进一步增产可能性降低。 Q&A 委内瑞拉局势对原油市场的短期和中期影响如何？ 第一季度，更重要的是库存问题及供应过剩显性化，这将形成短期支撑但不足 以改变整体下行趋势。 目前全球海上浮仓 ...

Core Viewpoint - The record orders placed on the London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in Singapore have not led to a significant increase in lead prices, which have declined due to high global inventory levels [1] Group 1: Inventory and Market Dynamics - LME reported that 117,550 tons of lead inventory are marked for immediate delivery, the highest level since 1997 [1] - Global lead inventory is nearing a 12-year high, indicating a supply surplus in the market [1] - The majority of orders are coming from Singapore, where lead inventory has surged to unprecedented levels this year [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Marex strategist Alastair Munro noted that the record inventory does not indicate a sudden surge in demand [1] - The increase in Singapore's reserves is attributed to a decline in demand from the automotive industry, leading to an oversupply of lead [1] - High logistics and labor costs are making it expensive for traders or manufacturers to transport metal out of Singapore [1]

Group 1 - The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for South Korean companies is reported at 93.2 for September, indicating a pessimistic outlook as it remains below the baseline of 100 since April 2022, marking a record low [1] - The manufacturing sector's BSI is at 92.6, while the non-manufacturing sector is slightly better at 93.8, with several industries, including non-metallic materials and metal products, expected to remain sluggish [1] - The semiconductor industry has seen a significant decline, with the BSI for the "Electronics and Communication Equipment" sector dropping from 111.1 to 94.7, a decrease of 16.4 points [1] Group 2 - In the non-manufacturing sector, industries such as electricity, gas, and water (73.7), construction (83.7), and transportation and storage (95.5) are expected to continue underperforming [2] - Key economic indicators such as investment (90.6), domestic demand (91.7), and employment (93.2) are all in a low state, with the inventory index exceeding 100, indicating an oversupply [2] - A report from the Korea Chamber of Commerce highlights that 33.9% of companies cite "difficulties in financing" as their primary operational challenge, followed by tax rates (20.9%) and labor regulations (15.8%) [2] Group 3 - The decline in new business establishments in South Korea is attributed to weak consumer demand, poor restaurant industry performance, and a sluggish construction sector, with the accommodation and food services sector seeing a 14.7% year-on-year decrease [3] - The real estate sector has also experienced a 12.8% decline, while wholesale and retail sectors have contracted by 8.1% [3] - Conversely, the financial and insurance sectors have seen a 21.9% increase in new establishments, and professional and technical services have experienced a slight growth of 1.7% [3]

Core Viewpoint - SHIMANO is facing significant challenges in its financial performance due to a decline in bicycle demand in China, leading to a substantial reduction in profit forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - SHIMANO announced a projected net profit decrease of 60% for the fiscal year ending December 2025, down to 30.5 billion yen, a revision from the previously adjusted forecast of 33.3 billion yen [1]. - The company expects a 2% increase in sales for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 460 billion yen, while operating profit is anticipated to decline by 29% to 46 billion yen, with both figures revised down by 10 billion yen and 24 billion yen respectively [1]. - Currency exchange losses for the first half of the year amounted to 21.6 billion yen, which directly impacts the annual forecast [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in SHIMANO's component sales in China is attributed to a slowdown in personal consumption and an oversupply of inventory due to inaccurate market size predictions by local manufacturers [1]. - The company noted that the bicycle market in China, which had been growing since 2023, is now facing challenges, particularly in the road bike segment [1]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - Rising global labor costs and raw material prices are affecting SHIMANO's performance, with significant impacts noted from minimum wage increases in Malaysia [2]. - The appreciation of Southeast Asian currencies against the yen has also contributed to increased production costs for SHIMANO's factories in the region [2]. - SHIMANO's president indicated that potential tariff rates of 15% on goods from Southeast Asia could be manageable, suggesting limited impact on operations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The French private sector activity further contracted in June, with both manufacturing and services weakening due to multiple factors including inventory surplus and rising uncertainties [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI (including services and manufacturing) both fell below expectations in June [1] - Manufacturing is impacted by customer inventory surplus, challenging market conditions, and order delays [1] - New orders have declined for the 13th consecutive month, with factory orders experiencing the largest drop since February [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as tariff uncertainties and the conflict between Israel and Iran, have also affected business activity [1] - Economic outlook is described as gloomy due to weakened domestic demand for goods and declining new orders [1] - The escalation of the Middle East situation further exacerbates uncertainties surrounding global trade and competition [1]