智通财经APP获悉，交易商对伦敦金属交易所(LME)位于新加坡的仓库所下达的创纪录订单不以为然， 铅价随之下跌。而全球库存仍接近 12 年来的最高水平。期货价格下跌了约 0.8%，抹去了此前的涨幅。 此前，LME公布数据显示，有117，550吨库存已标记为可随时交付，这是自 1997 年以来的最高水平。 几乎所有的订单都来自新加坡，该国的库存今年迅速飙升至前所未有的水平，并仍接近历史最高点。 新加坡拥有LME几乎所有的铅类商品库存。这种特殊的情况为仓库和交易商提供了赚取高额租金的机 会，因为这些仓库和交易商能够从金属的新所有者手中获得收益。订单量大并不一定意味着需求旺盛。 这个城市国家的储备量大幅增加，原因是汽车行业需求的下降导致全球出现了该金属供应过剩的情况， 而高昂的物流和劳动力成本使得贸易商或制造商将金属从新加坡运出的成本变得很高。 Marex策略师Alastair Munro在早间报告中表示："市场已经注意到这一创纪录的库存注销现象，但实际 情况是，其规模之大并不能表明这是一次突然出现的需求潮。" ...

Group 1 - The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for South Korean companies is reported at 93.2 for September, indicating a pessimistic outlook as it remains below the baseline of 100 since April 2022, marking a record low [1] - The manufacturing sector's BSI is at 92.6, while the non-manufacturing sector is slightly better at 93.8, with several industries, including non-metallic materials and metal products, expected to remain sluggish [1] - The semiconductor industry has seen a significant decline, with the BSI for the "Electronics and Communication Equipment" sector dropping from 111.1 to 94.7, a decrease of 16.4 points [1] Group 2 - In the non-manufacturing sector, industries such as electricity, gas, and water (73.7), construction (83.7), and transportation and storage (95.5) are expected to continue underperforming [2] - Key economic indicators such as investment (90.6), domestic demand (91.7), and employment (93.2) are all in a low state, with the inventory index exceeding 100, indicating an oversupply [2] - A report from the Korea Chamber of Commerce highlights that 33.9% of companies cite "difficulties in financing" as their primary operational challenge, followed by tax rates (20.9%) and labor regulations (15.8%) [2] Group 3 - The decline in new business establishments in South Korea is attributed to weak consumer demand, poor restaurant industry performance, and a sluggish construction sector, with the accommodation and food services sector seeing a 14.7% year-on-year decrease [3] - The real estate sector has also experienced a 12.8% decline, while wholesale and retail sectors have contracted by 8.1% [3] - Conversely, the financial and insurance sectors have seen a 21.9% increase in new establishments, and professional and technical services have experienced a slight growth of 1.7% [3]

Core Viewpoint - SHIMANO is facing significant challenges in its financial performance due to a decline in bicycle demand in China, leading to a substantial reduction in profit forecasts for the upcoming fiscal year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - SHIMANO announced a projected net profit decrease of 60% for the fiscal year ending December 2025, down to 30.5 billion yen, a revision from the previously adjusted forecast of 33.3 billion yen [1]. - The company expects a 2% increase in sales for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 460 billion yen, while operating profit is anticipated to decline by 29% to 46 billion yen, with both figures revised down by 10 billion yen and 24 billion yen respectively [1]. - Currency exchange losses for the first half of the year amounted to 21.6 billion yen, which directly impacts the annual forecast [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in SHIMANO's component sales in China is attributed to a slowdown in personal consumption and an oversupply of inventory due to inaccurate market size predictions by local manufacturers [1]. - The company noted that the bicycle market in China, which had been growing since 2023, is now facing challenges, particularly in the road bike segment [1]. Group 3: Cost Pressures - Rising global labor costs and raw material prices are affecting SHIMANO's performance, with significant impacts noted from minimum wage increases in Malaysia [2]. - The appreciation of Southeast Asian currencies against the yen has also contributed to increased production costs for SHIMANO's factories in the region [2]. - SHIMANO's president indicated that potential tariff rates of 15% on goods from Southeast Asia could be manageable, suggesting limited impact on operations [2].

Core Viewpoint - The French private sector activity further contracted in June, with both manufacturing and services weakening due to multiple factors including inventory surplus and rising uncertainties [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI (including services and manufacturing) both fell below expectations in June [1] - Manufacturing is impacted by customer inventory surplus, challenging market conditions, and order delays [1] - New orders have declined for the 13th consecutive month, with factory orders experiencing the largest drop since February [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, such as tariff uncertainties and the conflict between Israel and Iran, have also affected business activity [1] - Economic outlook is described as gloomy due to weakened domestic demand for goods and declining new orders [1] - The escalation of the Middle East situation further exacerbates uncertainties surrounding global trade and competition [1]