需求方面，广发期货分析称，12月仍处于传统汽车消费旺季，需求呈现温和修复，但终端领域的需求传 导并不顺畅，尤其是占主导的汽车零配件领域表现偏弱，导致库存消化缓慢，一定程度上拖累了需求的 实质性提升。另一方面，高企的铝价抑制了下游企业的采购意愿，导致大多企业均维持刚需备货。同 时，部分需求在旺季前已被提前预支，也削弱了传统旺季的订单增量。 库存方面，据五矿期货介绍，上期所周度库存增加0.06至7.38万吨，国内主要市场铝合金锭库存减少 0.08至7.02万吨，铝合金锭厂内库存增加0.25至6.06万吨。 1月5日，国内期市有色金属板块大面积飘红。其中，铸造铝合金期货盘面表现偏强，截至发稿主力合约 大幅上涨3.95%，报22480.0元/吨。 基本面上，国信期货指出，下游对废铝的高价接受度有限，畏高情绪升温，废铝市场整体成交清淡。在 行业政策的持续影响，和成本压力下，再生铝行业开工持续受限。 展望后市，广州期货表示，废铝供应紧张，铜价创新高，提高合金生产成本，供应端冶炼因多地环保限 产，部分再生铝厂生产受限，下游需求上看，淡季效应逐步体现但仍有基础消费支撑。供应缩减，需求 有刚性支撑铸造铝合金跟随电解铝偏强震荡运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, China's total scrap aluminum recycling volume was 11.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The supply growth rate of old scrap aluminum was 11.6%, and that of new scrap aluminum was 1.6%. It is estimated that the growth rate of scrap aluminum supply will decline to 1.9% and 4.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][37]. - China's annual primary aluminum production is about 43.5 million tons. After rough calculation based on the recycling rate, scrap aluminum accounts for 18.5% of the total aluminum supply. To meet a 1% growth in consumption, the scrap aluminum supply growth rate needs to reach at least 5.5%. With limited primary aluminum supply, the increment of new scrap aluminum supply is scarce. It is expected that the increment of new scrap aluminum supply in 2025 will be 1%, so old scrap aluminum needs to achieve a growth rate of over 7.5%. Therefore, the tight supply situation of scrap aluminum will be difficult to ease in the next two years [2][9][37]. - The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum continues to decline. In addition, the price of industrial silicon has dropped significantly. Even when producing with primary aluminum and adding 11% industrial silicon, its production cost - effectiveness is gradually emerging. If the scrap aluminum price remains high, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum in the later stage, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [2][28][37]. - In Q2 2022, due to factors such as the geopolitical crisis and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, the A00 aluminum price dropped significantly due to recession trading factors. As a result, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance. From 2023 to the current position in 2025, the ADC12 - A00 price difference has shown regular seasonal fluctuations [3][31][38]. - The ADC12 - A00 price difference can be simply understood as the aluminum ingot basis or the aluminum ingot spot premium or discount. ADC12 is more focused on cost and actual supply - demand strength, while the A00 aluminum ingot is more affected by macro factors. When the inventory is low and actual consumption strengthens, the ADC12 price is firm, and the A00 spot premium rises. When the inventory is high, even if consumption is strong, the ADC12 price and the A00 spot premium situation will not be optimistic [3][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost - side Analysis of ADC12 Price 3.1.1 Insufficient Increment of Scrap Aluminum Supply in the Next Two Years - The domestic scrap aluminum market supply is tight. Although the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the procurement sources for aluminum alloy plants are decreasing due to the promotion of scrap aluminum grade - preserving recycling. The theoretical calculation shows that the scrap aluminum supply growth rate will decline in the next two years, posing challenges to cost control and raw - material channels for aluminum alloy manufacturers [7]. - The slowdown in scrap aluminum supply growth in the next two years is mainly due to factors such as China not entering the real - estate aluminum recycling period yet, the slowdown in scrap aluminum recycling from electronic and durable goods due to the impact of the epidemic, and the decline in scrap aluminum supply from transportation and machinery equipment caused by the previous slowdown in consumption growth. However, the actual scrap aluminum recovery volume from automobiles may be slightly better than the theoretical value due to the rapid development of new energy and government subsidies [7][8]. 3.1.2 Increased Procurement Difficulty for Aluminum Alloy Plants due to the Promotion of Scrap Aluminum Grade - Preserving Recycling - In the past, most of China's recycled aluminum could only be used for die - casting aluminum at a downgraded level. In 2024, the use of scrap aluminum in aluminum profiles and strips increased significantly, indicating that the mature aluminum in old scrap aluminum is being used at the original grade. Even though the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the raw - material procurement for recycled alloy enterprises is becoming more difficult, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is narrowing [11]. 3.1.3 Analysis of the Relationship between Scrap Aluminum Price and ADC12 Price - The correlation coefficient between scrap aluminum price and ADC12 price is 0.91, and that between A00 and ADC12 price is 0.96. Scrap aluminum price affects ADC12 price mainly from the cost side, while the relationship between A00 and ADC12 is more about output and price correlation [16]. - The scrap aluminum price is affected by the primary aluminum price, but in a tight supply situation, scrap aluminum traders may hold back goods when the primary aluminum price drops. Seasonally, the scrap aluminum price is relatively stronger than the primary aluminum price around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum will remain at a low level in the next two years [16]. 3.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between ADC12 and A00 3.2.1 Analysis from the Perspective of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Aluminum - The current theoretical production cost of ADC12 is about 20,150 yuan/ton, and the industry is facing a slight loss. With the high scrap aluminum price and the narrowing price difference between refined and scrap aluminum, as well as the significant decline in the industrial silicon price, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum if the scrap aluminum price remains high, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [26][28]. 3.2.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Consumption Seasonality - In 2022 Q2, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance, while from 2023 to the current position in 2025, it has shown regular seasonal fluctuations. Around the Spring Festival, the high cost of scrap aluminum supports the ADC12 price, making the ADC12 - A00 price difference relatively high at the beginning and end of the year. In Q2, due to sufficient supply after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation and the influence of macro factors on A00, the ADC12 - A00 price difference weakens. From August to September, as consumption strengthens and supply becomes relatively insufficient, the ADC12 - A00 price difference gradually strengthens [31].