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铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][6] Core Viewpoints - The industry's start - up has shown differentiation, and in the short term, it is expected to be range - bound [2][6] - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space in the short term, but the cost - support logic remains [6] Summary by Directory Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73% [14] - The scrap - refined price difference has declined [20] Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has been flat, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged [27] - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly start - up rate has increased [37] - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average is estimated to be in a loss [38] - The explicit and implicit inventory of cast alloy has slightly decreased [43] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [45] - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are presented, with different production shares in various regions [48][49] Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption [55] - In July (July 7 - July 13), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 333,000, a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [6]
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250716
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:33
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the upcoming US copper tariff and the current off - season, while being affected by the tight copper raw material situation[2]. - The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term because of the potential increase in aluminum ingot supply and the off - season downstream demand[4]. - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend overall, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under the pressure of weak domestic consumption[5]. - The zinc price is expected to be bearish in the medium - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show an oscillating trend in the short term influenced by market sentiment[6]. - The tin price is predicted to oscillate weakly in the short term as supply and demand are balanced with the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's tin mine复产[7]. - The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels as the valuation of nickel price relative to nickel - iron has risen to a relatively high level[8]. - The lithium carbonate price may face pressure as supply is expected to remain high despite short - term rebounds[9]. - The alumina price is expected to be shorted at high levels considering the over - capacity situation, with the ore price as the core factor[11]. - The stainless steel market is in an off - season with limited demand and reduced trading activity[13]. - The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance due to the off - season and large spot - futures price difference[16]. Summaries by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper closed up 0.15% to $9657/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 78070 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110475 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 11.4%. The domestic Shanghai copper warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 50000 tons[2]. - Outlook: The copper price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 77200 - 78600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9500 - 9720/ton[2]. Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum closed down 0.52% to $2583/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20390 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position decreased by 9000 hands to 636000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 1600 tons to 70000 tons[4]. - Outlook: The aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20200 - 20550 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2550 - 2610/ton[4]. Lead - Market performance: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.88% to 16946 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $28.5 to $1988.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 60000 tons[5]. - Outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited under weak domestic consumption[5]. Zinc - Market performance: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.73% to 22070 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $27.5 to $2711.5/ton. The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 93100 tons[6]. - Outlook: The zinc price is bearish in the medium - long term and may oscillate in the short term[6]. Tin - Market performance: The tin price oscillated. The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 54.07%. The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025[7]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price operating in the range of 250000 - 280000 yuan/ton and LME tin price in the range of $31000 - 35000/ton[7]. Nickel - Market performance: The nickel price rebounded at night. The main contradiction lies in the stainless - steel production line. The nickel - iron production profit is extremely low, and the ore price has weakened recently[8]. - Outlook: The nickel price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the Shanghai nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the corresponding range[8]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed up 1.26%. The LC2509 contract closed up 0.27%[9]. - Outlook: The lithium carbonate price may face pressure, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract operating in the range of 64800 - 68200 yuan/ton[9]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 0.61% to 3143 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Guizhou and Shanxi increased. The import window is closed, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 6900 tons to 25500 tons[11]. - Outlook: The alumina price is recommended to be shorted at high levels, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 2850 - 3300 yuan/ton[11]. Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12695 yuan/ton, down 0.16%. The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory increasing by 3.12%[13]. - Outlook: The stainless - steel market is in an off - season with limited demand[13]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract fell 0.08% to 19790 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price remained flat, and the inventory in three regions increased by 900 tons to 27600 tons[15][16]. - Outlook: The casting aluminum alloy price has significant upward resistance[16].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250714
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market remains positive, but the upward momentum is slowing, and there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The prices of various non - ferrous metals are expected to show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][4]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 1.92% to $9,663/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,320 yuan/ton. Total inventories in three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1st, which may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, putting pressure on the latter. With the raw material shortage situation weakening and the current off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,400 - 9,800/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices first declined and then rose last week. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%, and LME aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,602/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while bonded area inventories increased. Aluminum rod inventories increased, and processing fees were low. With the domestic commodity atmosphere positive but slowing, and the downstream in the off - season, aluminum ingots are expected to accumulate inventory, and aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic main contracts is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,530 - 2,650/ton [4]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.85% to 17,092 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,027.5/ton. The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and social and enterprise inventories are accumulating. With the approaching peak season, downstream demand is improving. Due to the high concentration of long - positions in the LME lead July contract, lead prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,355 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,777/ton. Domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. In the short - term, due to the dovish atmosphere of the Fed and the positive sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The current domestic social inventory is 90,300 tons [6]. Tin - Tin prices fell after high - level fluctuations last week. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is ongoing, but the actual output is yet to come. The shortage of raw materials for smelters persists, and downstream demand is weak. With the supply and demand in short - term balance and the increasing expectation of Myanmar's resumption, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated last week. The main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. Due to weak stainless steel demand, the profit of ferro - nickel production is compressed, and the price of nickel ore has weakened. In July, the surplus pressure of ferro - nickel has slightly eased, but the downstream demand for stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices are expected to be affected by the price difference between nickel and ferro - nickel, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,000/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, up 1.22% for the week. The price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia increased. The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has not changed significantly, with downstream in the off - season and supply at a high level. Without macro - level positive factors, the upward space of lithium prices is limited. The operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 63,040 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On July 11, the alumina index fell 2.7% to 3,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed. With the expectation of stronger ore prices in the medium - term and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the futures price may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity situation remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,710 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.20%. Spot prices in some markets were flat. It is currently the off - season for stainless steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The futures price of cast aluminum alloy first declined and then rose last week. The AD2511 contract rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, and the production profit of enterprises improved slightly. The overall supply and demand are weak in the off - season. Considering the slowdown of aluminum price increase and the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward resistance of cast aluminum alloy prices is large [17][19].
铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250706
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:12
Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Mo Xiaoxiong, Wang Zongyuan - Industry Investment Rating: Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost, but the upside is limited due to weak demand, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - The micro - fundamentals show that inventory remains high in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation [6] - The automotive market had a significant sales push at the end of the quarter in June, and consumer enthusiasm remains high [6] Supply - Side Analysis Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [14] - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a gradual upward trend [6] Recycled Aluminum - Cast aluminum alloy prices have declined slightly in the short term, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [27] - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37] - ADC12 production is currently in a state of average loss [42] - The obvious and hidden inventories of cast alloys have decreased slightly [47] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [49] - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods show certain regional characteristics [52][54] Demand - Side Analysis - In the terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption [59]
市场主流观点汇总-20250701
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 11:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price from the previous Friday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - **Commodities**: From June 23 to June 27, 2025, commodities such as coke, copper, and iron ore had price increases, with coke rising 2.67%, copper rising 2.47%, and iron ore rising 1.92%. Commodities like corn, gold, and palm oil had price decreases, with corn falling 1.04%, gold falling 1.56%, and palm oil falling 1.87%. Crude oil had a significant drop of 12.02% [3]. - **A - shares**: During the same period, the CSI 500 rose 3.98%, the SSE 50 rose 1.27%, and the CSI 300 rose 1.95% [3]. - **Overseas Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 rose 4.55%, the Nasdaq Index rose 4.25%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.44% [3]. - **Bonds**: The 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.64%, the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond rose 0.19% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 1.69%, the US dollar index fell 1.52%, and the US dollar central parity rate fell 0.09% [3]. 3.2大宗商品观点汇总 3.2.1宏观金融板块 - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a low risk - premium rate of the CSI 300, increased issuance of equity - oriented public funds, and sufficient bottom - supporting funds. Bearish factors included short - term difficulty in improving corporate fundamentals, the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, and over - heated market sentiment [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included net liquidity injection by the central bank, weak credit and inflation data, and strong demand for bond allocation. Bearish factors included the central bank's change in monetary policy stance, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and rising long - term interest rates [4]. 3.2.2能源板块 - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included falling US and Cushing crude oil inventories, reduced Russian exports, and geopolitical tensions. Bearish factors included the decline in geopolitical premiums, expected OPEC production increases, and weak terminal demand [5]. - **Eggs**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included postponed peak - season stocking, approaching stocking season, potential egg - price increases, and reduced supply due to heat. Bearish factors included limited decline in laying - hen inventory, high chick - replenishment volume, high new - production capacity, and postponed downstream stocking [5]. 3.2.3有色板块 - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 5 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, improved risk appetite, and falling global visible inventories. Bearish factors included the substitution effect of recycled copper, weakening downstream procurement, and weakening terminal demand [6]. - **Methanol**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 6 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included limited port - available goods, expected low port inventories, and increased downstream demand. Bearish factors included expected increases in Iranian imports, port inventory accumulation, potential MTO device maintenance, and a loosening supply - demand pattern [6]. 3.2.4贵金属 - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 2 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included rising Fed rate - cut expectations, a downward trend in real interest rates, and the strengthening of gold's safe - haven property. Bearish factors included reduced safe - haven demand, capital flowing to risky assets, and technical - level sell - offs [7]. 3.2.5黑色板块 - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were for a sideways market. Bullish factors included increased molten - iron production, expected decline in overseas shipments, and improved macro sentiment. Bearish factors included rising port inventories, increased global shipments, weakening demand for five major steel products, and narrowing basis [7].
铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250629
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of cast aluminum alloy futures remains strong, and the recent strong aluminum price provides good traction for the cast aluminum alloy price. Currently, it is in a stage of weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, the negative feedback of demand has emerged. Cast aluminum alloy enterprises have reduced their production due to sales pressure, which has decreased the demand for scrap aluminum and suppressed the scrap aluminum price. The price of ADC12 is expected to remain range - bound, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation and the improvement signs on the demand side. The impact of the off - season has deepened, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The downstream automotive consumption in June has continued to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [7]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73%, and the cumulative import was 85.66 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.09% [12]. - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range oscillation and overall upward movement [4]. Supply Side - Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly in the short term, and the price difference between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [25]. - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [30]. - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [36]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, it is estimated to be in an average loss state [41]. - The explicit and implicit inventories of cast alloys have increased slightly [46]. - The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed [48]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods: The production volume and its proportion vary by region, and the inventory also shows certain characteristics [51][52][53]. Demand Side - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. In June 2025, the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars reached 563,000, a year - on - year increase of 29.72%. Since May, the consumption of extended - range and plug - in hybrid models has significantly recovered, and the fuel - powered vehicle market has also shown a strong trend, jointly promoting the continuous strengthening of automobile consumption in June [4][58].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250604
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].
新能源、有色专题:废铝供应紧张将持续成为合金厂的考验
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 09:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2024, China's total scrap aluminum recycling volume was 11.06 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. The supply growth rate of old scrap aluminum was 11.6%, and that of new scrap aluminum was 1.6%. It is estimated that the growth rate of scrap aluminum supply will decline to 1.9% and 4.5% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][37]. - China's annual primary aluminum production is about 43.5 million tons. After rough calculation based on the recycling rate, scrap aluminum accounts for 18.5% of the total aluminum supply. To meet a 1% growth in consumption, the scrap aluminum supply growth rate needs to reach at least 5.5%. With limited primary aluminum supply, the increment of new scrap aluminum supply is scarce. It is expected that the increment of new scrap aluminum supply in 2025 will be 1%, so old scrap aluminum needs to achieve a growth rate of over 7.5%. Therefore, the tight supply situation of scrap aluminum will be difficult to ease in the next two years [2][9][37]. - The price of scrap aluminum remains high, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum continues to decline. In addition, the price of industrial silicon has dropped significantly. Even when producing with primary aluminum and adding 11% industrial silicon, its production cost - effectiveness is gradually emerging. If the scrap aluminum price remains high, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum in the later stage, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [2][28][37]. - In Q2 2022, due to factors such as the geopolitical crisis and the Fed's interest - rate hikes, the A00 aluminum price dropped significantly due to recession trading factors. As a result, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance. From 2023 to the current position in 2025, the ADC12 - A00 price difference has shown regular seasonal fluctuations [3][31][38]. - The ADC12 - A00 price difference can be simply understood as the aluminum ingot basis or the aluminum ingot spot premium or discount. ADC12 is more focused on cost and actual supply - demand strength, while the A00 aluminum ingot is more affected by macro factors. When the inventory is low and actual consumption strengthens, the ADC12 price is firm, and the A00 spot premium rises. When the inventory is high, even if consumption is strong, the ADC12 price and the A00 spot premium situation will not be optimistic [3][32][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cost - side Analysis of ADC12 Price 3.1.1 Insufficient Increment of Scrap Aluminum Supply in the Next Two Years - The domestic scrap aluminum market supply is tight. Although the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the procurement sources for aluminum alloy plants are decreasing due to the promotion of scrap aluminum grade - preserving recycling. The theoretical calculation shows that the scrap aluminum supply growth rate will decline in the next two years, posing challenges to cost control and raw - material channels for aluminum alloy manufacturers [7]. - The slowdown in scrap aluminum supply growth in the next two years is mainly due to factors such as China not entering the real - estate aluminum recycling period yet, the slowdown in scrap aluminum recycling from electronic and durable goods due to the impact of the epidemic, and the decline in scrap aluminum supply from transportation and machinery equipment caused by the previous slowdown in consumption growth. However, the actual scrap aluminum recovery volume from automobiles may be slightly better than the theoretical value due to the rapid development of new energy and government subsidies [7][8]. 3.1.2 Increased Procurement Difficulty for Aluminum Alloy Plants due to the Promotion of Scrap Aluminum Grade - Preserving Recycling - In the past, most of China's recycled aluminum could only be used for die - casting aluminum at a downgraded level. In 2024, the use of scrap aluminum in aluminum profiles and strips increased significantly, indicating that the mature aluminum in old scrap aluminum is being used at the original grade. Even though the scrap aluminum supply is increasing, the raw - material procurement for recycled alloy enterprises is becoming more difficult, and the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum is narrowing [11]. 3.1.3 Analysis of the Relationship between Scrap Aluminum Price and ADC12 Price - The correlation coefficient between scrap aluminum price and ADC12 price is 0.91, and that between A00 and ADC12 price is 0.96. Scrap aluminum price affects ADC12 price mainly from the cost side, while the relationship between A00 and ADC12 is more about output and price correlation [16]. - The scrap aluminum price is affected by the primary aluminum price, but in a tight supply situation, scrap aluminum traders may hold back goods when the primary aluminum price drops. Seasonally, the scrap aluminum price is relatively stronger than the primary aluminum price around the Spring Festival. It is expected that the price difference between refined and scrap aluminum will remain at a low level in the next two years [16]. 3.2 Analysis of the Price Difference between ADC12 and A00 3.2.1 Analysis from the Perspective of the Price Difference between Refined and Scrap Aluminum - The current theoretical production cost of ADC12 is about 20,150 yuan/ton, and the industry is facing a slight loss. With the high scrap aluminum price and the narrowing price difference between refined and scrap aluminum, as well as the significant decline in the industrial silicon price, there is a possibility of primary aluminum replacing scrap aluminum if the scrap aluminum price remains high, which can be used as a reference for arbitrage of the price difference between A00 and ADC12 [26][28]. 3.2.2 Analysis from the Perspective of Consumption Seasonality - In 2022 Q2, the ADC12 - A00 price difference showed abnormal seasonal performance, while from 2023 to the current position in 2025, it has shown regular seasonal fluctuations. Around the Spring Festival, the high cost of scrap aluminum supports the ADC12 price, making the ADC12 - A00 price difference relatively high at the beginning and end of the year. In Q2, due to sufficient supply after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation and the influence of macro factors on A00, the ADC12 - A00 price difference weakens. From August to September, as consumption strengthens and supply becomes relatively insufficient, the ADC12 - A00 price difference gradually strengthens [31].