1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 目 录 2026年2月24日 1 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 成本端来看，多晶硅N型料行业平均成本为40830元/吨，生产利润为11420元/吨。 4 2、基差: 02月13日，N型致密料52250元/吨，05合约基差为3945元/吨，现货升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: 周度库存为34.9万吨，环比增加2.34%,处于历史同期高位。 偏空。 4、盘面: MA20向下，05合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净多，多减。 偏多。 6、预期: 供给端排产持续减少，需求端硅片生产持续减少，电池片生产持续减少，组件生产持续减少， 总体需求表现为持续衰退。成本支撑有所持稳。多晶硅2605:在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lichong Group has transformed from a small family workshop into a leading global player in the aluminum alloy industry, achieving over 30 billion yuan in revenue through a focus on innovation and a complete industrial chain [1][2][8]. Group 1: Company History and Development - Founded in the early 1980s in Baoding, Hebei, Lichong Group started as a family-run workshop focused on waste aluminum recycling and processing [2][3]. - The company capitalized on the booming demand for aluminum during China's economic reforms, achieving a net profit of over 9 million yuan in 1988 as aluminum prices surged from 7,000 yuan/ton to over 18,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Lichong Group avoided diversification and focused on the aluminum alloy sector, which allowed for deep exploration and innovation in production processes [3]. Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company has invested heavily in R&D to overcome initial technological barriers, leading to the development of high-purity aluminum-silicon-magnesium-titanium alloys, breaking foreign monopolies [4]. - Lichong Group's latest innovation, a heat treatment-free aluminum alloy, enhances manufacturing efficiency and reduces costs, marking a significant technological breakthrough [4][6]. - The company has established a comprehensive technical system covering alloy materials, wheel manufacturing, and new material applications, with a total of 984 patents, including 181 invention patents [6]. Group 3: Global Expansion and Market Strategy - Lichong Group has built overseas production bases in Thailand and Mexico, creating a supply chain network across Southeast Asia, Europe, and America, which helps mitigate trade barriers and respond quickly to international orders [7][8]. - The company emphasizes a complete industrial chain from waste aluminum recycling to new energy materials, achieving a resource closed loop that significantly reduces energy consumption and carbon emissions [7]. - Lichong Group's products span various sectors, including automotive, rail transportation, robotics, aerospace, and high-end manufacturing, enhancing its resilience against market fluctuations [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company plans to continue focusing on aluminum alloy new materials and automotive lightweight strategies while exploring emerging fields such as humanoid robots and solid-state batteries [5][8]. - Lichong Group aims to strengthen its position in both traditional and new industries, striving for high-quality development in the aluminum alloy sector [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, suggesting to pay attention to market sentiment changes in industrial silicon and the situation of the Beijing meeting in polysilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2605 closing price is 8,815 yuan/ton, with a volume of 256,241 lots, and an open interest of 234,800 lots. PS2605 closing price is 50,000 yuan/ton, with a volume of 18,297 lots, and an open interest of 38,411 lots [1] - Industrial silicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 35 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the continuous - first inter - period is 51.2 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's near - month contract to continuous - first spread is - 120.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Basis - Industrial silicon's spot premium or discount varies according to different benchmarks. For example, the spot premium to East China Si5530 is + 535 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot premium to N - type re - investment material is + 3750 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.3 Price - The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53500 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Profit - Silicon factory profits for Xinjiang new - standard 553 are - 2316.5 yuan/ton, and for Yunnan new - standard 553 are - 5509 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.5 Inventory - Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.4 million tons, enterprise inventory is 20.9 million tons, and industry inventory is 76.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 33.3 million tons [1] 3.1.6 Raw Material Costs - The prices of silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. in different regions are provided. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, and Yunnan silicon ore is 230 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.7 Downstream Products of Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) - The prices and profit situations of products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are given. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.53 yuan/piece, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is 9.0 yuan/kg [1] 3.1.8 Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy - The price of DMC is 13900 yuan/ton, and the DMC enterprise profit is 1912 yuan/ton. The price of ADC12 is 23650 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum enterprise profit is 360 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6233 newly - established on - record new energy power generation projects (excluding household photovoltaics) nationwide, including 36 wind power projects, 6190 photovoltaic power generation projects (48 centralized photovoltaic power generation projects and 6142 industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic power generation projects), and 7 biomass power generation projects [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is also 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [3]

Copper - Copper prices have stabilized slightly overnight, with domestic refined copper maintaining an import window closure status [3][13] - The US ISM manufacturing index for January rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since February 2022, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [3][13] - China's January manufacturing PMI rose to a three-month high of 50.3, with sales prices increasing for the first time in 14 months [3][13] - LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons to 174,675 tons, while Comex inventory increased by 1,859 tons to 525,967 tons [3][13] - The market is facing short-term price pressure due to weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, with potential support testing in the range of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [3][13] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.91% to $17,045 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.83% to 132,670 yuan per ton [14][15] - LME inventory decreased by 756 tons to 285,528 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 302 tons to 46,574 tons [14][15] - Despite market sentiment dragging prices down, there are concerns about tight resource supply, which may support boundary costs [14][15] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy - The price of alumina showed a slight increase, with AO2605 closing at 2,821 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [16] - SHFE aluminum experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,520 yuan per ton, down 2.12% [16] - Recent regional alumina maintenance has led to supply disturbances, causing inventory to gradually accumulate [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 8,795 yuan per ton, down 1.18% [17] - Polysilicon prices also fell, with the main contract closing at 47,050 yuan per ton, down 1.66% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures dropped to 132,440 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices falling by 7,500 yuan to 160,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is currently negative, with prices under pressure, but strategic stocking demand from downstream may provide some support [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].

供应方面，广州期货指出，废铝原料供应偏紧价格整体保持稳定，有进口增量货源流入国内市场，临近 春节，部分企业对原料备货需求走增，成本端为铝合金价格提供较强支撑。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，由于行业淡季影响，下游压铸企业实际订单增量较少，向上采买 仅为刚需补货，消化库存为主，加之铸铝价格偏高位运行，其备货意愿亦不足。 1月30日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少。其中，铸造铝合金期货行情呈现震荡下行走势，截至发稿 主力合约报23110.0元/吨，跌幅达3.04%。 消息面上，上期所公告，经研究决定，自2026年1月30日(星期五)收盘结算时起，铸造铝合金期货已上 市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整 为9%。 展望后市，五矿期货表示，铸造铝合金成本端价格明显冲高回落，虽然需求相对一般，但在供应端扰动 持续和原料供应季节性偏紧背景下，短期价格预计仍有较强支撑。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market as a crucial financial infrastructure that supports the stability of the real economy, particularly in the context of price volatility risks faced by enterprises during economic adjustments and industrial upgrades [2]. Group 1: Service Model and Strategic Collaboration - The "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand provides a comprehensive service model that encompasses the entire risk management chain for enterprises, exemplified by its collaboration with Shuaiyichi New Materials Group [3]. - A specialized service team was established to guide Shuaiyichi through the entire process of futures trading, enabling the company to become a pioneer in the aluminum alloy futures market and laying a solid foundation for future risk management [3]. Group 2: Innovative Pricing Mechanism - An innovative pricing model combining "futures price + premium/discount" was developed to address traditional pricing challenges, effectively locking in procurement costs and sales prices while enhancing transaction transparency and fairness [4]. - This model mitigates profit losses due to price fluctuations and reduces cooperation risks between upstream and downstream clients, thereby improving transaction efficiency and gaining market recognition [4]. Group 3: Comprehensive Service Expansion - Beyond basic trading support, Shenwan Guotai Futures assisted Shuaiyichi in applying for an industrial cultivation base and hedging quotas, facilitating a transition from market participant to a deep user and co-builder of the industrial ecosystem [5]. - A complete futures application system was established, encompassing trading, pricing, warehousing, and risk management [5]. Group 4: Case Study and Value Demonstration - Shuaiyichi's successful implementation of risk management strategies has significantly reduced the impact of price volatility on operations and led to multi-level strategic enhancements [6]. - The company's hedging strategies have stabilized profit margins and improved financial robustness, while innovative pricing and comprehensive financial capabilities have strengthened its competitive position in the industry [7]. - Shuaiyichi has shifted from passive risk response to proactive risk management, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that promotes mutual growth among upstream and downstream enterprises [7]. Group 5: Commitment to Future Empowerment - The case of Shuaiyichi validates the effectiveness and replicability of the "Shenwan Zhiyuan" service model, providing a clear template for leading enterprises in the bulk commodity industry to utilize financial tools [8]. - The core of this model lies in the synergy of professional support from futures companies, deep participation from real enterprises, and collaborative services from risk management firms, achieving precise alignment between financial supply and industrial demand [8]. - Looking ahead, Shenwan Guotai Futures aims to deepen the construction of the "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand, extending successful experiences to more industrial sectors through the development of four empowering pillars [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term tin prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment, so cautious participation is advised. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply side is gradually recovering, but considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy for tin prices is recommended [2]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is stable, and the futures price fluctuates, rising after a decline. The production in January and February is expected to decrease. The demand side is likely to decline slightly in January. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, with the main price range between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the changes in production on the demand side [3]. Polysilicon - The average spot price of polysilicon and the price of silicon wafers have declined. The demand expectation has improved, and component production may increase slightly, which is conducive to inventory digestion. However, polysilicon and silicon wafer prices are under pressure due to high inventory. The monthly average production in the first quarter is expected to drop to about 80,000 tons. The price may be supported at the 48,000 yuan/ton level, and even at 45,000 yuan/ton considering full - cost support [4]. Copper - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and copper prices fluctuated. Geopolitical factors affect market expectations of copper tariffs. The global visible inventory has reached a high level in recent years, and the return of COMEX copper inventory may ease the supply pressure in non - US regions. In the short term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing, and in the long term, the price bottom center is expected to gradually rise. Attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes, with support at 97500 - 98500 [5]. Zinc - Market speculative sentiment has eased, and zinc prices adjusted. The shortage of zinc ore supports prices, and the import window for zinc ore has opened. The supply pressure of refined zinc has been relieved. High zinc prices have suppressed demand, and the downstream operating rate has weakened. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support around 23,800. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [9]. Aluminum - The alumina market showed a weak and volatile trend, with an oversupply situation. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Although macro and policy expectations are positive, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed. Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton [12]. Nickel - The nickel futures market was volatile. Macro factors and the situation of Indonesian nickel ore quotas affect the market. The overall spot transaction of refined nickel is average. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron have increased. The demand for stainless steel in the off - season is weak, and the market cost is relatively limited. The inventory pressure has increased. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 138000 - 148000 [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated at a high level, with cost being the main driving factor. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the fundamentals show a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The social inventory has decreased slightly. The ADC12 price is expected to continue the high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 23500 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices showed a narrow - range fluctuation and then a late - session rally. Macro factors and raw material supply expectations affect the market. The raw material prices are expected to rise, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is weak. The social inventory is decreasing, but the demand in the off - season is still insufficient. Stainless steel prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14200 - 15000 [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures prices rose sharply. News about lithium concentrate auctions and mine supply fluctuations affected the market sentiment. The production is slightly increasing, and the supply is expected to decline during the pre - holiday maintenance period. The downstream demand shows certain resilience. Social inventory decreased last week. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, but chasing the rise requires attention to volatility and liquidity risks [20]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin rose 0.22% to 395,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased 14.82% to - 92.00 dollars/ton. The import loss was - 7117.93 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99% [2]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports increased 16.81% to 17,637 tons, SMM refined tin production decreased 0.06% to 15,950 tons, and refined tin exports increased 41.84% to 2763 tons [2]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory increased 37.69% to 9549.0 tons, and social inventory increased 36.07% to 10,175.0 tons [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis of Main Contracts**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9250 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased 6.93% [3]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The national operating rate decreased 0.35% to 64.59% [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory increased 2.91% to 14.83 million tons, and social inventory increased 0.54% to 55.50 million tons [3]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type granular silicon decreased 7.34% to 50,500 yuan/ton, and the N - type material basis increased 5.49% [4]. - **Monthly Fundamental Data**: Polysilicon production increased 0.79% to 11.55 million tons, and silicon wafer production decreased 19.26% to 43.90 million tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: Silicon wafer inventory decreased 5.53% to 24.78 million tons, and polysilicon warehouse receipts increased 1.54% to 4620.00 [4]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased 0.66% to 100,060 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 increased to 101.84 dollars/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and imports decreased 4.02% to 26.02 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased 7.81% to 69.04 million tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased 12.27% to 32.94 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased 18.26% to 21.35 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased 0.53% to 24,210 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased to - 1851 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production decreased 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and imports decreased 51.94% to 0.88 million tons [9]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory increased 3.13% to 12.20 million tons, and LME inventory decreased 0.40% to 11.2 million tons [9]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum increased 0.13% to 23,710 yuan/ton, and the alumina (Shandong) average price decreased 0.19% to 2560 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, alumina production decreased 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased 3.97% to 363.66 million tons [12]. - **Inventory Changes**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased 2.60% to 74.90 million tons, and LME inventory increased 5.01% to 50.7 million tons [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased 0.99% to 144,900 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased 2.15% to - 200 dollars/ton [13]. - **Cost and New - Energy Material Prices**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel increased 1.09% to 112,237 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased 0.22% to 33,375 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased 26.10% to 31,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased 3.28% to 48,180 tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 23,850 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed primary aluminum scrap price difference increased 0.80% to 2509 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased 0.46% to 30.41 million tons [15]. - **Inventory Changes**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased 1.41% to 4.89 million tons [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased 1.40% to 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) increased 0.89% to 51 dollars/wet ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased 0.92% to 176.32 million tons, and stainless steel imports increased 29.32% to 14.50 million tons [16]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased 1.47% to 45.07 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased 3.93% to 158,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF increased 2.52% to 2035 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and demand decreased 2.50% to 130,118 tons [20]. - **Inventory Changes**: In December, lithium carbonate total inventory decreased 12.23% to 56,664 tons, and downstream inventory decreased 7.21% to 38,998 tons [20].

Copper - Overnight copper prices showed a downward trend, with domestic refined copper imports continuing to incur losses [3][12] - Macro factors include significant selling of long-term Japanese government bonds due to pre-election expectations and expansionary fiscal narratives, leading to market tension [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, while SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 4,462 tons to 148,193 tons [3][12] - Domestic copper consumption is entering a low season, with inventory accumulation stronger than in the past two years, indicating a need for adjustment [3][12] - Despite the current market conditions, there is still support from funds, making a significant price drop unlikely, with attention on the LME support level of $12,000 per ounce [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.12% to $17,760 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 1.68% to 140,110 yuan per ton [4][13] - LME nickel inventory decreased by 972 tons to 284,736 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts fell by 320 tons to 41,478 tons [4][13] - Indonesia plans to adjust nickel quotas based on industry demand to support local mineral prices, although specific quota levels for 2026 were not disclosed [4][13] - Primary nickel production increased significantly by 18.5% to 37,200 tons, with hedging demand potentially exerting pressure on prices [4][5][13] - Short-term nickel prices may be supported by Indonesian policies, but high inventory levels pose upward pressure [5][13] Aluminum & Alumina - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,668 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [6][14] - SHFE aluminum prices also decreased, with AL2603 closing at 23,775 yuan per ton, down 1.02% [6][14] - The market is experiencing a high inventory level, and there is a lack of purchasing interest from alumina plants, leading to continued inventory accumulation [6][14] - Domestic downstream inventory is expected to continue accumulating, with a potential for short-term price corrections in aluminum [6][14] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract settling at 8,745 yuan per ton, down 0.4% [7][15] - Polysilicon prices remained strong, with the main contract at 50,700 yuan per ton, up 0.91% [7][15] - The market is shifting from speculative trading to a focus on fundamentals, with pressures on polysilicon prices due to supply-demand imbalances [7][15] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit up at 160,500 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 1,500 yuan to 152,500 yuan per ton [8][16] - Weekly production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with various sources of lithium showing production increases [8][16] - Social inventory of lithium carbonate rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, indicating a mixed supply-demand situation [8][16] - The market is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless clear negative feedback from demand emerges [8][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out the supply - demand situations, price trends, and investment strategies for each sector. For instance, in the financial derivatives sector, A - share markets are expected to be volatile, and investors are advised to control risks; in the commodity futures sector, different commodities face different supply - demand pressures and price trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed accordingly [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Alumina**: The market is in a surplus situation with supply increasing and demand weakening. The price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is expected, and the price in January is under pressure. Strategies such as EG5 - 9 anti - arbitrage are recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is strong before the Spring Festival, but the futures price has over - anticipated the increase. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Driven by export growth, it attempts to break through resistance levels. Domestically, it may try to break through 8750 yuan and may briefly reach 9000 yuan [5]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts boost safe - haven demand, and the price is expected to be strong in the long - term. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average [6]. 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: A - share major indices declined, and the four major stock index futures contracts also fell. The market is divided, and small and medium - sized indices corrected [7][8]. - **News**: The government will implement more active fiscal and monetary policies to promote economic growth and price recovery [8]. - **Funding**: Trading volume increased slightly, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal. - **Operation Suggestion**: Control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [9]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures rose, and bond yields generally declined [10][11]. - **Funding**: The central bank had a net capital withdrawal, and the inter - bank market liquidity was generally stable [11]. - **Policy**: The fiscal policy in 2026 will be more active to support economic stability [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market may fluctuate in the short - term. Adopt range - bound operations and pay attention to basis - widening strategies [12]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Geopolitical and trade conflicts led to the selling of US and Japanese bonds, a decline in the US dollar and US stocks, and the precious metals market remained strong [13][14][15]. - **Outlook**: Gold is expected to be strong in the long - term due to geopolitical and trade risks. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium will follow gold with narrowed fluctuations [15][16]. 3.4 Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index declined [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Container shipping capacity increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [17]. - **Logic**: The futures price is under pressure from the downward trend of spot prices [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Expect short - term fluctuations [17]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: The spot discount widened, and the inventory continued to accumulate [18][21]. - **Macro**: The US is promoting negotiations on key minerals, which affects the tariff expectations for copper [19][22]. - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC decreased, and the electrolytic copper production showed different trends in December and is expected to decline slightly in January [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream copper processing industry's operating rate was low, and the terminal demand was weak [20]. - **Logic**: The copper price may return to fundamental pricing, and attention should be paid to the CL premium and LME inventory changes [22]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe, and enter long positions after adjustment. Pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [23]. 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the inventory increased weekly by 7.9 tons [23][24]. - **Supply**: The production may decrease slightly in January due to some enterprises' losses [24]. - **Logic**: The market is in surplus, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate between 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [25]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short at high prices within the range of 2600 - 2900 [25]. 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was cold [25]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may continue to decline [26]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate was low, and the demand was weak [26]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton in the short - term [28]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not chase high prices. Enter long positions after a pullback within the range of 23000 - 25000 [29]. 3.5.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the market maintained rigid demand [29]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline slightly in January due to raw material shortages [29][30]. - **Demand**: The demand is in a mild recovery, but the terminal demand transmission is not smooth [30]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton in the short - term [31]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Long AD03 and short AL03 for arbitrage within the range of 22000 - 24000 [31]. 3.5.5 Zinc - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the transaction was general [32]. - **Supply**: The zinc ore supply is tight, and the refined zinc production decreased in December [33]. - **Demand**: The downstream processing industry's operating rate declined, and the demand was weak [34]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [35][36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to the support at 23800, and hold long positions in the long - term. Hold cross - market anti - arbitrage [36]. 3.5.6 Tin - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was general [36]. - **Supply**: The tin ore and tin ingot import and export showed different trends in December [37]. - **Demand**: The downstream tin - soldering industry's operating rate declined, and the terminal demand was divided [38]. - **Logic**: The price is affected by market sentiment and is expected to be volatile. Consider low - buying after the sentiment stabilizes [39]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe [39]. 3.5.7 Nickel - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the transaction was weak [39]. - **Supply**: The refined nickel production increased, and the market supply was sufficient [40]. - **Demand**: The demand in different sectors showed different trends, and the stainless - steel demand was general [40]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely between 138000 - 148000 [42]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations [42]. 3.5.8 Stainless Steel - **Spot**: The spot price was stable, and the basis declined [43]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of nickel ore and ferronickel increased, and the price of ferrochrome was firm [43]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to increase in January, and the supply is relatively loose [44]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 13800 - 14600, and attention should be paid to the ore news and downstream inventory [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Operate within the range of 13800 - 14600 [46]. 3.5.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: The spot price increased, and the market sentiment was boosted [46][47]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January due to pre - holiday maintenance [47]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to be optimistic, but the 1 - month demand may decline [48]. - **Logic**: The futures price increased sharply due to supply - side speculation. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term, and enter long positions at low prices in the medium - term [50]. 3.5.10 Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price increased slightly [50]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and the first quarter of 2026 [50]. - **Demand**: The demand may be improved by export demand, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [51]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be supported at 48000 yuan/ton. Wait and observe and consider hedging [52]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at high - level fluctuations [52]. 3.5.11 Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: The spot price was stable [53]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline in January and February [53]. - **Demand**: The demand is expected to decline in January, and attention should be paid to the polysilicon production [53]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the demand changes [55]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe at low - level fluctuations and pay attention to the production cut [55]. 3.6 Ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The spot price declined, and the basis of rebar strengthened [56]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost decreased, and the profit increased. The profit order is billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar [56]. - **Supply**: The production is expected to decline seasonally [56][57]. - **Demand**: The demand declined seasonally, and the post - holiday demand elasticity is limited [57]. - **Logic**: The steel price may decline due to cost reduction. The rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges [57]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exit long positions on the steel - ore ratio at high prices and hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread [57]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot**: The spot price declined [58]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory increased [58][59]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand was weak, and the iron - making production declined [58]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking [59]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conduct range - bound operations within the range of 770 - 830 [60]. 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Spot**: The Shanxi coal price increased more than it decreased, and the Mongolian coal price declined [61][63]. - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly [63]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand for replenishment increased, and the coking plant's profit declined [63]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150 [63]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1000 - 1150 [63]. 3.6.4 Coke - **Spot**: The mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and the port price declined [64][65]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the coking plant's profit was under pressure [64][65]. - **Demand**: The steel mill's demand increased, and the iron - making production increased [65]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to be weak after the holiday, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1750 [65]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - term weakness and operate within the range of 1600 - 1750 [65]. 3.6.5 Ferrosilicon - **Spot**: The spot price was stable [66]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost was stable, and the profit was negative [66]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [66][67]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries declined [67]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5300 - 5800, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [67]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5300 - 5800 [67]. 3.6.6 Manganese Silicon - **Spot**: The spot price declined slightly [69]. - **Cost**: The cost was relatively high, and the profit was negative [69]. - **Supply**: The production decreased slightly, and the output was at a low level [70][71]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel industry declined, and the inventory was high [71]. - **Logic**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 5600 - 6000, and attention should be paid to macro and policy factors [71]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe and pay attention to the price range of 5600 - 6000 [71]. 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price increased [72]. - **Fundamentals**: Brazilian soybean production and export are affected by weather and other factors [73]. - **Outlook**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate around 2700 [74]. 3.7.2 Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price declined slightly [75]. - **Market Data**: The breeding profit improved, and the slaughter weight increased [75]. - **Outlook**: The market is in a game between supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [76]. 3.7.3 Corn - **Spot Price**: The price was stable in most areas [77]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased [78]. - **Outlook**: The price is supported by supply shortage and pre - holiday demand but limited by policy supply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [79]. 3.7.4 Sugar - **Analysis**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is in the pre - holiday stocking period. The price is expected to be weak [80]. - **Fundamentals**: The Indian sugar production increased, and the Brazilian sugar production decreased [80]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and observe in the short - term [80]. 3.7.5 Cotton - **Analysis**: The ICE cotton price is under pressure, and the domestic cotton supply is sufficient. The price is expected to be adjusted [82]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton inspection progress is behind, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is increasing [82]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to be adjusted [82]. 3.7.6 Eggs - **Spot Market**: The price was stable in most areas, and the supply and demand were balanced [84]. - **Supply**: The inventory of laying hens is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [84]. - **Demand**: The trader's purchasing is cautious, and the inventory has increased [84]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [84]. 3.7.7 Oils - **Analysis**: The palm oil price is boosted by exports, and the soybean oil and rapeseed oil prices are affected by multiple factors. The prices are expected to fluctuate [85][87][88]. - **Fundamentals**: The Malaysian palm oil export and reference price change, and the US soybean oil supply is sufficient [86][88]. - **Outlook**: The palm oil may break through resistance levels, and the