期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 新能源&有色组铝产业年报 本期分析研究员 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝年度报告 2025-11-30 "十五五"开年给铝消费带来新希望 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 联系人 蔺一杭 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：linyihang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03149704 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：富宝有色） 核心提示：本周废铝价格稳中上涨，幅度0-100元/吨不等，合金白料、喷涂、铝线价格表现略好于生 铝、铝屑等铸造铝合金原料；预计下周废铝偏稳运行，涨跌空间有限；铝企下游订单不温不火，成品售 价处于贴水状态、利润不足，一定程度上限制废铝原料价格反弹。但华东、西南等多地废铝市场供应偏 紧亦支持其抗跌属性较强，综合来看，预计下期废铝或延续偏稳运行。 一、国内再生铝合金市场分析 1、再生铝合金市场情况 期内A00铝锭重心继续下移，整体表现先涨后跌；截止11月27日，富宝现货A00铝价格在21440-21480 元/吨，均价21460元/吨，环比11月20日跌110元/吨；富宝现货ADC12铝合金锭价格20800元/吨，环比11 月20日平稳；目前华东地区非交割品ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20600-20800元/吨之间，华南ADC12主 流价格20900-21000元/吨，西南地区ADC12铝合金锭主流价格在20800-21100元/吨，环保11月20日平 稳。交割品价格多高100-200元/吨不等。 期内铸造铝合金期货先抑后扬，主力合约盘中一度跌至2.02万附近，随后陆续抬升，扳 ...

专题报告 2025-11-27 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年美国铝关税落地后引起美国原铝、铝材及铝制品进口数量减少，关税在抑制美国需求的 同时也带动了该国铝库存消耗。同时，美国铝关税落地也导致加拿大出口美国原铝数量明显减 少、出口到非美国家的数量增加。由于非美国家铝需求增加，关税引起的贸易流向变化并未引 起美国以外库存累积。 当前及未来一段时间，美国原铝库存消耗引起的现货升水走高使得出口到美国的优势重新显 现，加拿大以及非美国家和地区的原铝有望更多流向美国，并逆转 4-8 月的贸易流向。叠加消 费维持增长和新增产能有限，我们预计美国以外的原铝供需关系将维持阶段性偏紧，全球铝价 依然具有较强的支撑。 有色金属研究 | 铝 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 2018 年美国启动针对钢铁和铝的 232 调查，并对铝征收 10%的关税，不过此后逐渐实施关税豁 免，并扩大关税豁免范围。今年 3 月 12 日，美国将进口铝产品关税提升至 25%，且取消了加拿 大、墨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals suggest a stable supply and slightly weakened demand due to the off - season. The social inventory remains stable. It is recommended to trade the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - For alumina, the supply is relatively abundant while the demand is stable. It is advised to trade the main contract of alumina lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [5]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply is contracting and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the raw material supply shortage still supports the spot price. It is recommended to trade the main contract of cast aluminum lightly with a focus on operation rhythm and risk control [7]. - Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material cost is favorable, the supply is at a high level, the demand is transitioning to the off - season, and the spot trading sentiment has slightly improved. The overall fundamentals are stable supply and slightly weakened demand [4]. - **Alumina**: The raw material supply will gradually be sufficient, the supply is abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The subsequent production cut situation needs to be observed [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material cost is supported, the supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand may slightly weaken as it transitions from the peak to the off - season [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of November 21, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 2.07% from November 14; the closing price of LME Aluminum was 2,806.5 dollars/ton, down 2.45% from November 14. The alumina futures price was 2,706 yuan/ton, down 3.01% from November 14, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closing price was 20,595 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from November 14 [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.66, down 0.19 from November 14. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,055 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton from November 14, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,320 yuan/ton, down 740 yuan/ton from November 14 [11][20]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 21, 2025, the Shanghai Aluminum position was 612,209 lots, down 21.87% from November 14, and the net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 14,758 lots from November 14 [15]. - **Spot Price**: As of November 21, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,360 yuan/ton, down 2.42% from November 14, with a spot discount of 10 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.18%, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,350 yuan/ton, down 1.39% from November 14 [22][23][29]. 3. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 20, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 544,075 tons, down 1.65% from November 13; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 566,000 tons, unchanged from November 13. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 69,283 tons, up 7.01% from November 14, and the LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts were 484,800 tons, down 7.04% from November 13 [31][34]. - **Raw Material Import and Port Inventory**: In October 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 13.7661 million tons, down 13.3% month - on - month and up 12.31% year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 170.9596 million tons, up 30.05% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 26.35 million tons, down 110,000 tons month - on - month [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The scrap aluminum price weakened, and in September 2025, the import volume of scrap aluminum was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year, and the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, up 5.8% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 76.344 million tons, up 8% year - on - year. The import volume was 189,300 tons, up 215.64% month - on - month and 2927.91% year - on - year, and the export volume was 180,000 tons, down 28% month - on - month and up 5.88% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 37.75 million tons, up 2% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.434 million tons, down 0.12% month - on - month and up 1.54% year - on - year, the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.5% year - on - year, and the operating rate was 98.24%, down 0.12% from last month and down 1.01% from the same period last year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 55.243 million tons, down 0.4% year - on - year. The import volume was 350,000 tons, up 10.4% year - on - year, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, down 12.8% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, unchanged month - on - month and up 15.96% year - on - year, and the production was 608,300 tons, down 7.35 from last month and down 1.83% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, up 17.2% year - on - year; from January to October, the cumulative production was 15.76 million tons. The import volume was 76,400 tons, down 33.77% year - on - year, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, up 50.65% year - on - year [63]. - **Downstream Markets**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from last month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, down 19.87% year - on - year, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, down 16.31% year - on - year. From January to October 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, China's automobile sales were 3,322,000 units, up 8.81% year - on - year, and production was 3,359,000 units, up 12.1% year - on - year [66][69]. 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected volatile movement and converging volatility of the aluminum price, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [73].

11月18日（周二），欧盟贸易专员塞夫科维奇(Maros Sefcovic)表示，欧盟委员会计划对欧盟废铝出口实 施限制，以防止其大量外流，避免行业缺乏脱碳所需的原料。 欧盟委员会于7月开始监测出口，并表示将评估是否有必要采取行动。 塞夫科维奇在布鲁塞尔举行的欧洲铝业会议上表示，"今天……我们正在启动一项新措施的筹备工作， 以解决废铝外流问题。" 他补充说，这项将于2026年春季采取的措施将是"均衡的"，同时考虑到生产商、回收商和下游行业的利 益。 废铝在该行业的脱碳工作中也起着至关重要的作用，因为回收铝比从开采的铝土矿中生产铝要少消耗 95%的能源。 反对限制措施的欧洲回收工业联合会(EuRIC)表示，废铝出口是区域内需求低迷和欧盟处理混合废料能 力不足的结果。 据欧洲铝业协会（European Aluminium）称，欧盟废铝出口量在2024年达到创纪录的126万吨，较五年 前高出约50%，其中大部分出口到亚洲。 欧盟业界表示，由于美国对铝征收50%的进口关税，但对废料只征收15%的关税，目前情况已经恶化。 关税提升了美国的废铝进口，减少了出口，促使亚洲买家更多地关注欧盟的供应。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The raw material end shows that the rainy season in Guinea is ending, and the subsequent import volume of bauxite may recover, but the current supply is still tight and port inventories are slightly decreasing. Supply may gradually converge as high - cost enterprises face losses and carry out maintenance and production cuts. Demand is expected to increase steadily as the electrolytic aluminum industry is in the peak season, with strong aluminum prices and high production enthusiasm. It is recommended to lightly go long on the alumina main contract at low prices [4][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina, the raw material, is still abundant, with low prices. Aluminum prices are strong, increasing smelter profits and production enthusiasm. Domestic production capacity is approaching the industry limit, and supply is expected to remain stable. However, the traditional peak consumption season is ending, and downstream demand may decline, with inventory accumulating. It is recommended to lightly go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum, the raw material, is tight, and the price of casting aluminum auxiliary materials is rising, providing strong cost support. Supply may slow down due to raw material shortages. High aluminum prices have led to weak downstream demand and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to lightly go short on the cast aluminum main contract at high prices [7]. - **Options Market**: Considering that aluminum prices may face pressure in the future and volatility may increase, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Alumina**: Go long on the main contract at low prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Go short on the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: Go short on the main contract at high prices with light positions, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movements**: As of November 7, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from October 31; LME Aluminum closed at 2,843 US dollars/ton on November 6, down 0.94% from October 31. Alumina futures were at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from October 31; cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,010 yuan/ton, up 0.99% [10][14]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.6 on November 7, down 0.25 from October 31. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 64,315 yuan/ton, down 1,395 yuan/ton [11][22]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's open interest was 730,168 lots on November 7, up 17.44% from October 31. The net position of the top 20 was 4,602 lots, down 25,415 lots [17]. - **Spot Prices**: As of November 7, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,580 yuan/ton, up 1.31% from October 31 with a spot discount of 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week. Alumina spot prices in Henan and Shanxi decreased, while the national average price of cast aluminum alloy increased [25][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of November 6, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 548,375 tons, up 19.34% from October 30; domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 565,000 tons, up 0.71% from October 30. As of November 7, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 113,335 tons, down 0.21% from the previous week [33]. - **Bauxite**: The inventory of nine domestic bauxite ports was 26.4 million tons, down 230,000 tons from the previous period. In September 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 15.8806 million tons, down 13.17% from the previous month but up 38.14% year - on - year [37]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 150 yuan/ton from the previous week. In September 2025, the import of aluminum scrap was 155,414.4 tons, up 17.7% year - on - year; the export was 68.54 tons, up 1.1% year - on - year [43]. - **Alumina**: In September 2025, the production was 7.999 million tons, up 8.7% year - on - year. The import was 60,000 tons, down 36.43% from the previous month but up 61.68% year - on - year; the export was 250,000 tons, up 38.89% from the previous month and 78.57% year - on - year [46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 3.809 million tons, up 1.8% year - on - year. The in - production capacity was 44.449 million tons, up 0.16% from the previous month and 2.11% year - on - year; the total capacity was 45.232 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 0.52% year - on - year; the operating rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% from the previous month and down 1.53% year - on - year [53]. - **Aluminum Products**: In September 2025, the production was 5.9 million tons, down 1.5% year - on - year. The import was 360,000 tons, up 35.4% year - on - year; the export was 520,000 tons, down 7.3% year - on - year [57]. - **Cast Aluminum**: In September 2025, the production was 656,500 tons, up 3.25% from the previous month and 10% year - on - year. The monthly built - in capacity was 1.26 million tons, flat from the previous month and up 15.96% year - on - year [60]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September 2025, the production was 1.776 million tons, up 17.1% year - on - year. The import was 82,200 tons, down 13.21% year - on - year; the export was 23,500 tons, up 2.06% year - on - year [63]. - **Real Estate**: In September 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 92.78, down 0.27 from the previous month and up 0.47 year - on - year. From January to September 2024, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, down 19% year - on - year; the completed housing area was 311.2888 million square meters, down 14.96% year - on - year [66]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: From January to September 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chinese automobile sales were 3,226,375 units, up 14.86% year - on - year; production was 3,275,802 units, up 17.15% year - on - year [69]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - Due to expected pressure on aluminum prices and increased volatility, consider a double - buying strategy to bet on increased volatility [74].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core View - On November 3, Shanghai aluminum opened high and went higher, with the main 2512 contract closing at 21,600 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase, hitting a new high for the year. The spot market showed that although traders in East China increased shipments, downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices. The import window was closed, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets continued, with the spot import loss expanding to about -2,600 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is expected to remain strong in the follow - up under the support of a positive macro - environment [9]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Performance - On November 3, the main 2512 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,600 yuan/ton, up 1.48% [9]. - In the spot market, East China reported at par, Central China at a discount of -140, and South China at a discount of -150. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss expanded to about -2,600 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Analysis - Domestic bauxite remained tight. Mines in the north affected by environmental protection and the rainy season could resume production, but the specific time awaited government approval. The price increase of northern bauxite was expected to be limited due to high inventory and weak restocking willingness of alumina plants, while southern bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite was sluggish, and the price of Guinean bauxite was under pressure. Policy disturbances in November should be noted [9]. - Alumina remained in surplus, and the import window was open, with pressure from overseas inflows. In the north, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection requirements after heating in November and annual carbon emission verifications. The low - price situation and long - term delivery obligations put great pressure on enterprises, and the spot long - term settlement price in November was close to the cash cost of high - cost production capacity, which might lead to production cuts [9]. - Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, providing strong cost support. After November, the traditional peak season basically ended, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level following Shanghai aluminum [9]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic operating capacity remained high with limited changes. The production cuts of Century Aluminum this month and the expected production cuts of Mozambique Aluminum next year might intensify the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. With positive macro - factors such as successful Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the aluminum market was expected to be strong in the follow - up [9]. Group 5: Industry News - On October 30, the second - phase alumina project of the Guinea Aluminum Development Project of State Power Investment Corporation officially started. It is planned to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 1.2 million tons and supporting facilities, and is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Mercuria, a global commodity trading giant, is transporting over 30,000 tons of aluminum from Port Klang, Malaysia, to New Orleans, USA, presumably to meet the needs of its US customers. Mercuria's long - term holding of over 90% of LME aluminum warehouse receipts is considered the key factor for the premium of LME near - month aluminum contracts over far - month contracts [10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan (including domestic and imported cans) was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [10]. - The China Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested implementing different strategies for the "anti - involution" of the non - ferrous metal smelting industry, including setting a production capacity "ceiling" for bulk metals, enhancing concentration through mergers and acquisitions for strategic metals, and guiding enterprises to transform towards personalization and high added - value [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall, the aluminum market is expected to be supported by positive expectations and inventory depletion. For different aluminum - related products, the fundamentals show different characteristics, but generally present a positive outlook. It is recommended to conduct light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum all showed a strong and upward trend. Shanghai Aluminum rose 1.51% to 21,225 yuan/ton, Alumina increased 0.36% to 2,810 yuan/ton, and Cast Aluminum rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Fundamentals**: For electrolytic aluminum, supply may increase slightly, while consumption is strong, and inventory is depleting. For alumina, supply is expected to decrease, and demand may be slightly boosted. For cast aluminum, it is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations [5][6][9]. - **Strategies**: Light - position, low - buying short - term trading on the main contracts of Shanghai Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5][6][9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Trends**: As of October 24, 2025, Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,205 yuan/ton, up 1.53% from October 17; London Aluminum closed at 2,865 US dollars/ton on October 23, up 2.47% from October 17. Alumina futures rose 0.22% to 2,785 yuan/ton, and cast aluminum alloy rose 1.54% to 20,705 yuan/ton [12][16]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.38, down 0.47 from October 17. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,130 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from October 17, and the copper - aluminum futures spread was 66,495 yuan/ton, up 3,015 yuan/ton from October 17 [13][21]. - **Inventory and Position**: Shanghai Aluminum's position increased by 22.47% to 607,128 lots, and the net position of the top 20 decreased by 10,191 lots to 4,602 lots. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 0.81% to 21,130 yuan/ton, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [19][30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of October 23, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased 3.56% to 477,675 tons, SHFE inventory decreased 2.2% to 122,028 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased 0.7% to 568,000 tons. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased 5.62% to 66,695 tons, and LME registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The import volume of bauxite in September 2025 was 15.8806 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.17% and a year - on - year increase of 38.14%. The inventory of nine bauxite ports decreased by 100,000 tons to 26.69 million tons. The price of scrap aluminum was firm, and in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 25.3% year - on - year, while the export volume decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [37][43]. - **Production and Trade**: In September 2025, alumina production increased 8.7% year - on - year, imports decreased 36.43% month - on - month and increased 61.68% year - on - year, and exports increased 38.89% month - on - month and 78.57% year - on - year. Electrolytic aluminum production increased 1.8% year - on - year, and imports increased 80.13% year - on - year in September 2025. The total output of aluminum products decreased 1.5% year - on - year, imports increased 35.4% year - on - year, and exports decreased 7.3% year - on - year. The output of cast aluminum alloy increased 10% year - on - year, and the output of aluminum alloy increased 17.1% year - on - year, with imports decreasing and exports increasing [46][53][57]. - **Downstream Markets**: The real estate market declined slightly, with the real estate development climate index at 92.78 in September 2025, down 0.27 from the previous month. Infrastructure investment increased 3.34% year - on - year from January to September 2024. In September 2025, automobile sales increased 14.86% year - on - year, and production increased 17.15% year - on - year [66][69]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the future aluminum price is expected to be supported, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Rong, Wang Zongyuan - Author Affiliation: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - Ferrous and Precious Metals Group 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and tend to rise in the long - term. It is advisable to look for buying opportunities at low prices. The cost side provides strong support due to the cancellation of tax - refund policies and tight scrap aluminum supply. With the end - of - year car sales push, the fourth - quarter seasonal performance may be stronger [6]. - As of October 17, the combined inventory of alloy ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.31 million tons to 13.41 million tons compared with the previous week, but the inventory pressure remains. In the second week of October, domestic car sales reached 686,000, a year - on - year increase of 14.14%. The "trade - in" policy has been effective, and the fourth - batch of funds was advanced in late September, which is conducive to boosting car consumption [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction End - Volume and Price - The current trading volume, position, and capital precipitation data are presented, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - For the AD2511 - AD2512 contract pair on October 17, 2025, the fixed cost is 11.54 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 66.17 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 78 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 20,600 yuan/ton. Considering storage fees, capital costs, and other factors, the warehouse receipt cost is 20,815.6 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is decreasing. Import volume is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in August 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 1.726 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.35% [16][19]. - The short - term refined - scrap price difference is rising [24]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The Baotai ADC12 price remains flat, and the recycled - primary price difference fluctuates. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [31][36]. - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has declined, while the monthly operating rate has increased. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy and its regional output share are also presented. For example, Guangdong accounts for 19.65% of the output [41][46]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost is estimated to be above the break - even line [47]. - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, and the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [52][56]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production volume, regional production share, factory inventory, and regional inventory share are provided [59][60][62]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Fuel vehicles are in the end - of - year sales push stage, which will drive die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the car inventory warning index and the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts manufacturing [65][66].