Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Aluminum Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [2] - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply and rising demand [2][6] Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - Shanghai Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 2.05%, closing at 21,120 yuan/ton [6] - Alumina: Oscillated weakly, with a weekly decrease of 3.06%, closing at 2,914 yuan/ton [6] - Cast Aluminum: Oscillated strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.8%, closing at 20,645 yuan/ton [8] Market Outlook - Alumina: The supply and demand are stable. The supply remains stable despite the decline in bauxite supply, and the demand has improved due to the stable operation of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the recent price correction [6] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The supply is stable and the demand is gradually improving. The supply is stable due to the stable supply of alumina and the high operating capacity and start - up rate. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season [6] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The supply is slightly convergent and the demand is warming up. The raw material cost is supported by the strong aluminum price and the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the supply is limited. The demand has improved with the arrival of the consumption peak season, but the spot market trading is still dull due to the high inventory [8] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai Aluminum: Light - position short - term long trading on dips for the main contract [6] - Alumina: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [6] - Cast Aluminum: Light - position oscillating trading for the main contract [8] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - Shanghai Aluminum: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan/ton or 2.75% from September 5 [11] - LME Aluminum: As of September 11, 2025, the closing price was 2,679 US dollars/ton, up 89 US dollars/ton or 3.44% from September 5 [11] - Alumina Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the price was 2,875 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton or 2.48% from September 5 [15] - Cast Aluminum Futures: As of September 12, 2025, the closing price was 20,645 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.8% from September 5 [15] - Alumina Spot: In Henan, the average price was 3,065 yuan/ton on September 12, down 55 yuan/ton or 1.76% from September 5; in Shanxi, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5; in Guiyang, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton or 2.74% from September 5 [26][27] - Cast Aluminum Spot: The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 21,050 yuan/ton on September 12, up 300 yuan/ton or 1.45% from September 5 [27] - Domestic Shanghai Aluminum Spot: As of September 12, 2025, the A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,050 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton or 1.79% from September 5, with a spot discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from last week [30] Other Indicators - Shanghai Aluminum Position: As of September 12, 2025, the position was 611,039 lots, an increase of 76,550 lots or 14.32% from September 5 [18] - Shanghai Aluminum Top 20 Net Position: As of September 12, 2025, it was 4,602 lots, an increase of 4,949 lots from September 5 [18] - Aluminum - Zinc Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 1,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - Copper - Aluminum Futures Spread: As of September 12, 2025, it was 59,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 495 yuan/ton from September 5 [24] - LME Aluminum Near - Month and 3 - Month Spread: As of September 11, 2025, it was 11.06 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.55 US dollars/ton from September 4 [29] Group 4: Industry Situation Inventory - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 485,275 tons, an increase of 5,675 tons or 1.18% from September 4 [36] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory: As of September 5, 2025, it was 124,078 tons, a decrease of 1,518 tons or 1.21% from last week [35] - Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory: As of September 11, 2025, it was 570,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons or 0.35% from September 4 [35] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Warehouse Receipt: As of September 12, 2025, it was 72,469 tons, an increase of 12,508 tons or 20.86% from September 5 [36] - LME Electrolytic Aluminum Registered Warehouse Receipt: As of September 11, 2025, it was 375,025 tons, a decrease of 93,725 tons or 19.99% from September 4 [36] Raw Materials - Bauxite: The total import volume increased year - on - year, and the port inventory decreased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 123.2607 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.65%. The nine - port inventory was 26.84 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 790,000 tons [39] - Scrap Aluminum: The quotation increased, and the import and export increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91%. The quotation of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [46] Production and Trade - Alumina: The production increased year - on - year, and the import and export increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In July 2025, the import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [49] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production and import increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In July 2025, the export volume was 41,000 tons; from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 126,900 tons [52][56] - Aluminum Products: The total production decreased year - on - year, the import increased year - on - year, and the export decreased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. In July 2025, the import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [60] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The production increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the production was 623,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 and a year - on - year increase of 12.41%. The monthly built - in production capacity was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.25% [63] - Aluminum Alloy: The total production increased, the import decreased, and the export increased. In July 2025, the production was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; from January to July, the cumulative production was 10.628 million tons. In July 2025, the import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. From January to July, the import volume was 611,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.83%; the export volume was 145,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.77% [66] Downstream Markets - Real Estate: The market declined slightly. In July 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from last month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing start - up area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19% [69] - Infrastructure: The investment was favorable. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year [72] - Automobile: The production and sales increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [72] Group 5: Option Market Analysis - Strategy Recommendation: Considering the support for the future aluminum price, a double - buy strategy can be considered to bet on the increase in volatility [77]

强弱分析：中性 精废价差近期呈现震荡 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年8月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：临近传统消费旺季，下游需求或小幅回暖 ADC12-A0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Foundation Service" initiative for the resource recycling industry in Liaoning aims to establish it as a strategic pillar industry with distinct regional characteristics, promoting green and low-carbon industrial development [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The "Foundation Service" initiative was officially launched on August 27 in Shenyang, organized by the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology [1] - The Liaoning Resource Recycling Association was inaugurated during the event, signing agreements with various organizations including the China Circular Economy Association and Northeast University [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The initiative focuses on enhancing the resource recycling industry by building a solid foundation, creating platforms, aggregating resources, and strengthening services [1] - The provincial government aims to leverage the "dual carbon" goals, emphasizing the recycling of materials such as scrap steel, stainless steel, aluminum, copper, and used batteries [1] Group 3: Future Plans - The association will serve as a bridge for government-enterprise cooperation, an exchange platform for industry connections, a base for technological innovation, and a training center for talent development [1] - The full lifecycle management of the recycling industry will be implemented, covering the entire chain from waste generation to recycling, processing, and reuse [1]

Group 1 - The EU is seeking to quickly advance legislation to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods, as requested by President Trump, in exchange for a reduction in tariffs on EU automotive exports [2][3] - The EU Commission acknowledges that the trade arrangement with Trump benefits the US but is necessary for providing stability and certainty to businesses [2] - Currently, EU automotive exports to the US face a 27.5% tariff, while a trade agreement aims to reduce US tariffs on nearly all European products to 15%, contingent on the EU's legislative action [2][3] Group 2 - If the EU proposes the legislation by the end of the month, the 15% tariff on European cars will be retroactive to August 1 [3] - The automotive sector is a crucial export for the EU, with Germany exporting $34.9 billion worth of cars and parts to the US in 2024 [3] - Trump's tariff policies are causing a significant shift of European scrap aluminum to the US, threatening the survival of local recycling facilities in Europe [3] Group 3 - The aluminum industry in Europe, with an annual turnover of €40 billion, directly employs 250,000 people and supports an additional 1 million jobs [3] - Exports of aluminum products to the US incur a 50% tariff, severely impacting sales, while scrap aluminum exports face no tariffs [3] - The EU Commission is considering emergency measures to support the struggling aluminum industry, including potential tariffs on all EU scrap aluminum exports [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The alumina market may experience a situation of double - growth in supply and demand, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. The electrolytic aluminum market may see a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. The overall aluminum market may face some pressure [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of cast aluminum first declined and then rose, with a weekly change of +0.05%, closing at 20,175 yuan/ton. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 0.67%, closing at 20,630 yuan/ton. The alumina contract oscillated weakly, with a weekly change of - 2.09%, closing at 3,138 yuan/ton [4][5]. - **Market Outlook**: Alumina may face a situation of double - growth in supply and demand. Electrolytic aluminum may see stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected improvement [4]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Light - position short - selling transactions for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at high prices and light - position short - term long - buying transactions for the main contract of alumina at low prices, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of August 22, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.51% from August 15; the closing price of LME aluminum was 2,593 US dollars/ton, down 1.18% from August 15. The alumina futures price was 3,127 yuan/ton, down 1.14% from August 15; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,175 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from August 15 [8][12]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of August 22, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.95, up 0.11 from August 15. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,645 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from August 15; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 58,060 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from August 15 [9][20]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of August 22, 2025, the position of Shanghai aluminum was 575,286 lots, down 4.33% from August 15; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 10,019 lots from August 15 [15]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 21, 2025, the alumina spot price in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang regions decreased slightly. The national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was 20,450 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from August 15. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot was 20,750 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from August 15, and the spot premium was 30 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [22][23][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, down 0.03% from August 14; the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 120,653 tons, up 6.2% from the previous week; the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, up 2.66% from August 14 [32]. - **Raw Material Import and Inventory**: As of the latest data, the nine - port inventory of domestic bauxite was 27.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons. In July 2025, the monthly import of bauxite was 20.063 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.75% and a year - on - year increase of 34.22% [35]. - **Waste Aluminum**: As of the latest data this week, the price of crushed waste aluminum in Shandong region was 15,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton. In July 2025, the import volume of waste aluminum and scrap was 160,494.61 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.68%; the export volume was 79.39 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.91% [41]. - **Alumina**: In July 2025, the alumina output was 7.5649 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 52.6721 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The import volume was 125,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.35% and a year - on - year increase of 78.23%; the export volume was 230,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.29% and a year - on - year increase of 53.33% [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July 2025, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 26.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The import volume was 248,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 91.19%; the cumulative import from January to July was 1.4975 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In July 2025, the output of aluminum products was 5.4837 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; the cumulative output from January to July was 38.4699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The import volume was 360,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.2%; the export volume was 540,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In June 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. The output was 618,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 and a year - on - year increase of 5.49% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July 2025, the aluminum alloy output was 1.536 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%; the cumulative output from January to July was 10.628 million tons. The import volume was 69,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.39%; the export volume was 24,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.3% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In July 2025, the real estate development sentiment index was 93.34, a decrease of 0.25 from the previous month and an increase of 1.23 from the same period last year. From January to July 2024, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.5%; the housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 21.19%. From January to July 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 7.29% year - on - year. In July 2025, the Chinese automobile sales volume was 2,593,410 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.66%; the automobile production volume was 2,591,084 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.33% [64][67]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the aluminum price is expected to experience slight oscillatory pressure in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [72].

Core Insights - The article discusses the import and export trends of aluminum-related products in China for July 2025, highlighting the resilience of aluminum exports despite global trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States [1]. Group 1: Bauxite Imports - Bauxite imports reached 20.06 million tons in July, marking a month-on-month increase of 10.7% and a year-on-year increase of 34.2% [2]. - Imports from Guinea accounted for 15.94 million tons, up 19.6% month-on-month and 52.0% year-on-year, while imports from Australia were 3.13 million tons, up 3.9% month-on-month but down 19.4% year-on-year [2]. - The average import price of bauxite fell to $74.9 per ton, down 4.9% month-on-month but up 13.5% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Alumina Trade - China maintained a net export position for alumina, with a net export volume of 104,000 tons in July, up 48.5% month-on-month [4]. - Alumina imports totaled 126,000 tons, up 24.4% month-on-month and 78.2% year-on-year, primarily from Indonesia and Australia [4]. - Cumulative alumina exports from January to July reached 1.572 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.3% [4]. Group 3: Primary Aluminum Trade - Primary aluminum imports in July were 248,000 tons, up 29.1% month-on-month and 91.2% year-on-year [6]. - Exports of primary aluminum reached 41,000 tons, marking a significant increase of 108.9% month-on-month and 116.7% year-on-year [6]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.498 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0% [6]. Group 4: Aluminum Alloy Trade - Aluminum alloy imports decreased to 69,000 tons in July, down 10.6% month-on-month and 28.4% year-on-year [7]. - Exports of aluminum alloys were 25,000 tons, down 3.3% month-on-month but up 38.3% year-on-year [7]. Group 5: Scrap Aluminum Imports - Scrap aluminum imports reached 160,000 tons in July, up 3.1% month-on-month and 18.7% year-on-year [10]. - Cumulative imports from January to July totaled 1.173 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [11]. Group 6: Aluminum Product Exports - Aluminum product exports in July were 475,000 tons, up 7.4% month-on-month but down 13.2% year-on-year [14]. - The top five export destinations included Mexico, India, Vietnam, South Korea, and Thailand, with varying month-on-month growth rates [14]. - Cumulative aluminum product exports from January to July totaled 3.181 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% [14]. Group 7: Aluminum Wheel Exports - Aluminum wheel exports reached 88,000 tons in July, up 1.5% month-on-month and 15.2% year-on-year [19]. - The United States, Japan, and Mexico were the primary importers, accounting for 56.3% of total exports [19]. - Cumulative exports from January to July totaled 579,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [20]. Group 8: Overall Export Trends - The combined exports of aluminum materials and products from January to July totaled 5.211 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4% [22]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on global aluminum trade is expected to gradually manifest, affecting China's aluminum product exports [22].

Core Insights - China's aluminum scrap imports in July 2025 reached 160,494.606 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.15% and a year-on-year increase of 18.68% [1][2]. Import Data Summary - Thailand remains the largest supplier of aluminum scrap to China, with imports of 36,406.736 tons in July 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.09% and a year-on-year increase of 22.21% [1]. - Japan is the second-largest supplier, with imports of 21,209.287 tons, marking a month-on-month growth of 16.26% and a significant year-on-year increase of 107.11% [1]. - Other notable suppliers include: - The UK: 16,464.09 tons, month-on-month increase of 0.89%, year-on-year increase of 14.65% [1]. - The US: 9,161.48 tons, month-on-month decrease of 13.25%, year-on-year decrease of 41.65% [1]. - Canada: 8,651.87 tons, month-on-month increase of 124.82%, year-on-year increase of 157.11% [1]. - Australia: 8,348.18 tons, month-on-month decrease of 5.73%, year-on-year increase of 8.59% [1]. - Germany: 6,766.48 tons, month-on-month increase of 2.00%, year-on-year increase of 70.75% [1]. - Norway: 3,223.33 tons, month-on-month increase of 21.25%, year-on-year increase of 749.00% [1]. - The overall trend indicates a strong demand for aluminum scrap in China, particularly from Asian suppliers, while imports from the US have significantly declined [1][2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the foundry aluminum alloy industry is "Bullish" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scarcity of scrap aluminum resources and the expected increase in demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials provide strong support for the price of ADC12. Considering the expected production cuts due to policies and the strong market sentiment for long - positions, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on AD2511 at low prices. Additionally, an arbitrage opportunity of going long on AD2511 and short on AL2511 when the spread is below - 500 can be considered [2][15][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Scrap Aluminum Arrival is Scarce, Beware of the Risk of Tax Rebate Decline - Last week (08/11 - 08/15), the price of recycled cast aluminum alloy ingots fluctuated strongly. The closing price of AD2511 increased by 0.3% to 20,165 yuan/ton, and the selling price of Baotai Group's ADC12 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 19,900 yuan/ton. The cost side was strongly supported, and the profit margin widened [12] - The prices of different scrap aluminum varieties showed mixed trends this week. The factors affecting the fundamentals of scrap aluminum include the cooling of the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the high inflation data in the US, the slowdown of order - taking by spot - futures traders and traditional traders, and the reduction or suspension of production by some enterprises, which suppresses the upward movement of scrap aluminum prices [13] - The raw material inventory in national alloy ingot factories and the social inventory of scrap aluminum have both increased marginally. However, due to the high price of scrap aluminum, aluminum enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The arrival of scrap aluminum has decreased, and it is expected that the inventory at the scrap aluminum end will not continue to accumulate. The demand for ticketed resources and imported raw materials is expected to increase significantly, which may widen the procurement price difference between East and South China [14][15] - The 2025 (770) document requires the rectification of illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion. The cancellation of tax rebates and the investigation of reverse - invoicing will significantly increase enterprise production costs, and there may be a transfer of production capacity in tax - preferential areas. It is expected that the spot supply of aluminum alloy will tighten significantly, which is negative for scrap aluminum prices [16] 2. Review of Weekly Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries jointly issued a notice to rectify illegal fiscal rebates and subsidies in local government investment promotion, including the full - scale inspection and abolition of relevant policies, the immediate suspension of illegal clauses in existing projects, and the prohibition of various illegal operations. For some specific violations, a transition period can be set, with the latest exit deadline of August 2027 [21] - The US government announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products. The expanded tariff list will take effect on August 18 [21] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Scrap Aluminum: Tight Arrival and Slight Inventory Accumulation - The report provides multiple data charts on scrap aluminum, including monthly production, monthly shipments, weekly procurement volume of traders, regional production, inventory of traders and foundry aluminum alloy factories, price trends, and the price difference between scrap and primary aluminum, reflecting the current situation of tight arrival and slight inventory accumulation of scrap aluminum [23][25][27] 3.2 ADC12: Strong Price and High Social Inventory - The report presents data on the closing price of the main contract of foundry aluminum alloy, term structure, basis, sales price, price difference with A00 aluminum, production and operation rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots, social and in - factory inventory, and production and import profits, indicating that the price of ADC12 is strong and the social inventory is high [35][38][40] 3.3 Downstream: Weakening Start - up of Semi - Steel Tires and the Automobile Industry Still in the Off - season - The report uses data on the monthly consumption of recycled cast aluminum, automobile production (including new energy and fuel vehicles), motorcycle production, inventory warning index, and start - up rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires to show that the start - up of semi - steel tires is weakening and the automobile industry is still in the off - season [59][60][62]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory has stabilized, ending a continuous accumulation trend since early May, with supply tightness persisting in the market [1] Supply and Inventory - As of August 7, the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in major consumption areas was 33,400 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has not changed significantly, and the supply of scrap aluminum remains tight, leading to poor profit margins for aluminum alloy manufacturers [1] - On August 13, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 31,611 tons, an increase of 138 tons from the previous trading day and an increase of 393 tons from August 6 [1] Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics - According to Yide Futures, the downstream aluminum alloy market is still in a consumption off-season, but financial demand is increasing, indicating a "not-so-weak" off-season; alloy manufacturers are in a profitable situation [2] - Guoxin Futures notes that aluminum alloy prices are running strong alongside Shanghai aluminum, with scrap aluminum prices rising to high levels, which increases the cost of aluminum alloys and supports bottom price levels [2] - The pressure from the consumption off-season continues to suppress both spot and futures prices of aluminum alloys, with inventory data showing a state of accumulation and remaining at historically high levels [2]