1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the situation between the US and Iran has further deteriorated, causing a significant decline in AL prices and a weak overall performance of the aluminum product line. The price of scrap aluminum remains firm, with high - level price fluctuations. During the "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season, recycled aluminum enterprises are actively starting work, and production is on the rise. However, due to the short - term difficulty in alleviating the tense situation in the Middle East, the market recession expectation is rising, risk assets are under pressure, and the AD price has also declined, with short - term high - level price fluctuations [6] - As of March 20, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.53 million tons compared with the previous week, with an increase in factory inventory and a decrease in social inventory. The automotive market in March is expected to show seasonal recovery, but the recovery of fuel - powered vehicles is hindered [6] 3. Summary by Directory Transaction End - Volume and Price - The report presents the price differences of AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, and AD02 - 03, as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest data [9] Transaction End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2604.shf and AD2605.shf contracts, the spread is 70 yuan/ton. The total cost of inter - period positive arbitrage is 92 yuan/ton, including fixed costs of 12.62 yuan/ton and floating costs of 79.72 yuan/ton [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The spot price of cast aluminum alloy is 24,100 yuan/ton. Considering various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost is 24,254.2 yuan/ton [15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has significantly decreased, while social inventory has increased. Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [17][18] Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensively. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns [29][34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains low. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line [39][43] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has slightly increased, while the social inventory has slightly decreased. The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed [48][50] - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the report shows the production volume, inventory volume, and inventory proportion data [53][54][55] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Automobile production is at a low level year - on - year, and there are concerns about automobile consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as the PPI of auto parts and the automobile inventory warning index [58][59]

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 15, 2026 [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, overseas disturbances in primary aluminum continued to intensify. The price of AL was strong, outperforming AD, and the overall aluminum product line showed strength. Although the supply of scrap aluminum was becoming more abundant, its price remained firm, following the upward trend of primary aluminum. The rising cost put some pressure on the production of secondary aluminum enterprises, but with the price increase of ADC12, the theoretical profit improved significantly. In terms of supply and demand, secondary aluminum enterprises actively resumed production, and production was in the climbing stage. Downstream demand continued to recover, and enterprises reported stable orders. In the short term, due to cost support and moderate supply release, the price of AD may continue to fluctuate. [6] - As of March 13, the visible inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 13,500 tons to 132,600 tons compared with the previous week, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. From February 1 to 28, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.034 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 25.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 2.578 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Although the high - frequency retail data showed a significant year - on - year slowdown, the decline in the overall production and sales of automobiles was relatively limited. Considering the complex market influencing factors and the "low - start, high - finish" characteristic of domestic automobile sales in recent years, as well as the impact of the early purchase behavior of some consumers due to the expiration of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy at the end of last year, this cannot represent the long - term trend of automobile sales this year. [6] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - The report presents data on price spreads such as AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03, as well as information on capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest. [9] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. Taking the AD2604 and AD2605 contracts on March 13, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost is 12.78 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 82.40 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 95.18 yuan/ton. [13] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotes fluctuate around the Baotai price. The report calculates the cost of spot - futures arbitrage for cast aluminum alloy. The spot price reference is 24,700 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and other expenses, is 24,856.9 yuan/ton. [14][15] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production has dropped significantly, while social inventory has increased. [17] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82%. [18] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been significantly raised, and the price spread between secondary and primary aluminum has fluctuated more intensely. [29] - The regional price spread of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. [34] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy enterprises has rebounded, but the monthly operating rate remains at a low level. [39] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum (91%), and the current cost estimate is above the break - even line. [44][45] - The factory and social inventories of cast aluminum alloy have both decreased slightly. [49] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is closed. [51] - Regarding secondary aluminum rods, data on production and inventory are presented. The production of secondary aluminum rods and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also provided. [54][55][56] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The year - on - year growth of automobile production is at a low level, raising concerns about automobile consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, small household appliances, and related price indices and inventory indices are presented. [59][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the AL price showed a fluctuating trend, with the AD price stronger than AL, and the overall performance was relatively strong. The supply of scrap aluminum remained firm, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials continued to be tight. With the resumption of production of secondary aluminum plants, the concentrated replenishment demand of aluminum plants was gradually released, and the price of scrap aluminum might remain at a high level. The demand recovery was relatively slow, and the orders of secondary aluminum plants had not recovered yet. Overall, the current market supply and demand were still weak, and the price might show a range - bound fluctuation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - end - Volume and Price - The report shows the price differences between different contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), as well as the capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest data of casting aluminum alloy from 2025 - 08 to 2026 - 02 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - end - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The inter - period spread cost of the AD contract (AD2603.shf and AD2604.shf) was calculated on February 27, 2026. The fixed cost was 9.72 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 73.59 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 83.31 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot - futures arbitrage cost was calculated. The spot price was 23,000 yuan/ton, and the total cost of the warehouse receipt was 23,149.6 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - end - Scrap Aluminum - The output of scrap aluminum was at a high level in the same period, and the social inventory was continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum was also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - end - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 was slightly raised, and the price difference between secondary and primary aluminum slightly weakened. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy showed certain seasonal patterns. The weekly and monthly operating rates of casting aluminum alloy increased, and the monthly output was presented. The cost of ADC12 was mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost was above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy slightly increased, and the social inventory slightly decreased. The import window of casting aluminum alloy was closed [27][32][37]. 3.5 Demand - end - Terminal Consumption - The output of automobiles was flat year - on - year, and the consumption had resilience. The report presented the output data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as relevant indicators such as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the auto inventory warning index [57][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On February 26, the domestic bauxite price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton compared to the previous day [41]. - On February 26, the spot price index was 2,654 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [41]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 26, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 117 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium and discount was -175 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 288,287 tons, an increase of 3,112 tons compared to the previous day [3]. - According to Mysteel, on February 26, the aluminum rod processing fee was 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 26, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - On February 26, the ADC12 price was 23,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [4]. - According to the Shanghai Futures Exchange, on February 26, the futures inventory was 66,174 tons, a decrease of 907 tons compared to the previous day [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain, including prices, inventories, and other indicators for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys. 3. Summary by Directory Alumina - On February 12, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged [1]. - The spot price index on February 12 was 2646 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 276,825 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 12, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,991 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton from the previous day; the premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 200,654 tons, an increase of 33,088 tons from the previous day [1]. - The aluminum rod processing fee on February 12 was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 12, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1]. - The price of ADC12 on February 12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 66,638 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Alumina - On February 10, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also with a 0 US dollars/dry ton change [1] - On February 10, the spot price index was 2,646 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 251,010 tons, a net increase of 8,384 tons compared to the previous day [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 10, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 166,516 tons, a net increase of 2,004 tons compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the aluminum rod processing fee was 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy - On February 10, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also with a 0 yuan/ton change [1] - On February 10, the ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 67,300 tons, a net decrease of 1,235 tons compared to the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].

Group 1 - The company has established a stable supply of scrap aluminum through a comprehensive domestic recycling network and also utilizes import channels from multiple countries and regions [2] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (601677.SH) has a stable supply of scrap aluminum due to its well-established domestic recycling network and diversified import channels, which are unaffected by the EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum [1] Group 2 - The company relies on a comprehensive domestic recycling network for its scrap aluminum procurement, ensuring a stable supply [1] - The import channels for scrap aluminum cover multiple countries and regions, further enhancing supply stability [1] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company's operations [1]

Group 1 - The main contract price of casting aluminum alloy futures reached a high of 24,410 yuan/ton last Friday but has since experienced a significant decline due to panic in the precious metals market and expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses commodity prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's waste aluminum market is expected to show an increase in volume and price stability, with domestic recycling systems growing and imports remaining strong to supplement raw material supply. The total waste aluminum recycling volume is projected to reach 8.5927 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The waste aluminum import volume for 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, with December imports showing a significant increase of 19.36% month-on-month and 22.82% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging high-quality recycled material imports and strong domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of January 29, the waste aluminum market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, with prices rising significantly but actual transactions remaining weak due to supply and demand weaknesses. Supply has tightened due to tax policy adjustments and holiday closures, while demand is suppressed by environmental production limits and rapid price increases [3] Group 4 - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market is entering a seasonal off-peak period, with significant internal structural differentiation. In December 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 640,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [5] - The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry has continued to decline, reaching 58.9% as of January 29, with expectations of further decreases before the Spring Festival. Social inventory has been decreasing, while factory inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand [5] Group 5 - The outlook for casting aluminum alloy futures prices is expected to be characterized by weak fluctuations, constrained by strong cost support and weak fundamental demand. The solid cost support comes from tight supply of core raw materials and high aluminum prices, while weak demand limits upward price movement [6]