铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 精废价差小幅回落 ADC12-A00价差短期走弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 100 ...

期货有限公司 2026年02月26日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 (3) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为66174吨,环比-907吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为349790吨,环比+2390吨。 氧化铝基本面观测指标 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 图表 2: 几内亚铝土矿价格 图表 3:氧化铝现货汇总均价 TT 2026 . - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2024 600 6000 120 5500 570 110 5000 540 100 4500 510 4000 480 80 3500 450 3000 420 2500 01/02 02/12 03/24 05/05 06/15 07/26 09/05 10/23 12/03 04/08 05/13 06/14 07/16 08/17 09/18 10/27 11/28 12/3 图表 5:氧化铝-仓单库存 图表 6:氧化铝价差(连一连三) 图表 4:现货基美走势 一、氧化铝 二、电解铝 比+117元/吨;升贴水为-175元/吨,环比+25元/吨。 (2) 据上期所,2月26日期货库存为288287吨,环比+3112吨。 (3) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report provides daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain, including prices, inventories, and other indicators for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloys. 3. Summary by Directory Alumina - On February 12, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged [1]. - The spot price index on February 12 was 2646 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 276,825 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1]. Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 12, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,991 yuan/ton, an increase of 86 yuan/ton from the previous day; the premium/discount was -160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 200,654 tons, an increase of 33,088 tons from the previous day [1]. - The aluminum rod processing fee on February 12 was 94 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Alloy - On February 12, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1]. - The price of ADC12 on February 12 was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - The futures inventory on February 12 was 66,638 tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous day [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalogs Alumina - On February 10, the domestic ore price was 491 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the Guinea imported ore price was 61 US dollars/dry ton, also with a 0 US dollars/dry ton change [1] - On February 10, the spot price index was 2,646 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 251,010 tons, a net increase of 8,384 tons compared to the previous day [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On February 10, the spot average price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 91 yuan/ton compared to the previous day; the premium/discount was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 166,516 tons, a net increase of 2,004 tons compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the aluminum rod processing fee was 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Aluminum Alloy - On February 10, the price of raw aluminum was 17,250 yuan/ton, with a 0 yuan/ton change compared to the previous day; the price of cooked aluminum was 17,650 yuan/ton, also with a 0 yuan/ton change [1] - On February 10, the ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [1] - On February 10, the futures inventory was 67,300 tons, a net decrease of 1,235 tons compared to the previous day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. The market sentiment has significantly cooled this week, and the AD price has declined. However, aluminum enterprises in the spot market are holding up prices, leading to a rapid expansion of the spot premium. Before the Spring Festival, the industry's operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, with limited support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction - Volume and Price - The document shows data on the price differences between different AD contracts (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03) and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest from 2025 - 10 to 2026 - 01 [7]. 3.2 Transaction - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on February 6, 2026, the fixed cost of the inter - period positive arbitrage in the casting aluminum alloy (including VAT, trading fees, etc.) is 15.32 yuan/ton, and the floating cost (including storage fees, capital costs, etc.) is 49.00 yuan/ton, with a total cost of 64.32 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - Based on the reference price of Baotai Group, the spot price of the casting aluminum alloy is 23,600 yuan/ton. The total cost of spot - futures arbitrage, including storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs, is 23,751.9 yuan/ton [12]. 3.3 Supply - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level in the same period, and social inventories are continuously decreasing. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.82% [14][16]. 3.4 Supply - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has decreased, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has increased. The regional price difference of the casting aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of the casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the monthly operating rate remains at a high level. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line [26][31][36]. - The factory inventory of the casting aluminum alloy has increased significantly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly. The import window for the casting aluminum alloy is closed [43][44]. - The production and inventory data of recycled aluminum bars are provided. The production of recycled aluminum bars in different regions and the proportion of factory inventory in different regions are also presented [47][49]. 3.5 Demand - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption, especially in the automotive sector, shows resilience, which is transmitted to the die - casting industry. The production data of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances from 2020 to 2025 are presented, as well as the year - on - year change in the PPI of auto parts and the monthly value of the auto inventory warning index [52][53].

Group 1 - The company has established a stable supply of scrap aluminum through a comprehensive domestic recycling network and also utilizes import channels from multiple countries and regions [2] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Ming Tai Aluminum Industry (601677.SH) has a stable supply of scrap aluminum due to its well-established domestic recycling network and diversified import channels, which are unaffected by the EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum [1] Group 2 - The company relies on a comprehensive domestic recycling network for its scrap aluminum procurement, ensuring a stable supply [1] - The import channels for scrap aluminum cover multiple countries and regions, further enhancing supply stability [1] - The EU's strengthened export controls on scrap aluminum do not impact the company's operations [1]

Group 1 - The main contract price of casting aluminum alloy futures reached a high of 24,410 yuan/ton last Friday but has since experienced a significant decline due to panic in the precious metals market and expectations of a hawkish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a stronger dollar that suppresses commodity prices denominated in dollars [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's waste aluminum market is expected to show an increase in volume and price stability, with domestic recycling systems growing and imports remaining strong to supplement raw material supply. The total waste aluminum recycling volume is projected to reach 8.5927 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6% [2] - The waste aluminum import volume for 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.67%, with December imports showing a significant increase of 19.36% month-on-month and 22.82% year-on-year, driven by policies encouraging high-quality recycled material imports and strong domestic demand [2] Group 3 - As of January 29, the waste aluminum market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, with prices rising significantly but actual transactions remaining weak due to supply and demand weaknesses. Supply has tightened due to tax policy adjustments and holiday closures, while demand is suppressed by environmental production limits and rapid price increases [3] Group 4 - The domestic recycled aluminum alloy market is entering a seasonal off-peak period, with significant internal structural differentiation. In December 2025, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 640,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.16% [5] - The operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry has continued to decline, reaching 58.9% as of January 29, with expectations of further decreases before the Spring Festival. Social inventory has been decreasing, while factory inventory has been accumulating due to weak demand [5] Group 5 - The outlook for casting aluminum alloy futures prices is expected to be characterized by weak fluctuations, constrained by strong cost support and weak fundamental demand. The solid cost support comes from tight supply of core raw materials and high aluminum prices, while weak demand limits upward price movement [6]

Core Viewpoint - The proposed restrictions by the European Commission on aluminum waste exports are deemed unnecessary and potentially harmful to the circular economy by the Bureau of International Recycling (BIR) [1] Group 1: Proposed Restrictions - The European Commission plans to limit aluminum waste exports to prevent a significant outflow from the EU, which could lead to supply shortages in the industry [1] - The European Aluminium Association supports the proposed restrictions and urges policymakers to impose export fees on aluminum waste [1] Group 2: Industry Response - BIR argues that the idea of restricting aluminum waste exports is neither necessary nor effective, stating that the EU generates more aluminum waste than it can process domestically [1] - Current data does not support the claim of structural "waste leakage" as a valid reason for intervention [1] Group 3: Economic Implications - BIR warns that export restrictions could lead to an oversupply of aluminum waste in the EU, negatively impacting prices and placing recyclers in an unsustainable economic position [1] - Such restrictions could ultimately reduce collection and recycling rates, increasing the risk of unmanaged waste streams and undermining the circular economy [1] Group 4: Future Actions - The European Commission is expected to propose measures regarding aluminum waste before the second quarter of this year [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: February 1, 2026 - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute, Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Group - Analysts: Wang Rong (Chief Analyst/Assistant to the Director), Wang Zongyuan (Contact Person) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the extreme chasing sentiment in the market continued to increase, and the AD price also followed the upward trend. However, since the night session on Thursday, precious metals started a stampede - style decline, and the panic sentiment spread in the market under the liquidity crisis, causing the AD price to fall from its high. With the Spring Festival approaching, the liquidity of the scrap aluminum market decreased, and the supply of scrap aluminum raw materials remained tight. As downstream die - casting industries entered the holiday season, secondary aluminum enterprises also took early holidays, and the overall industry operating rate is expected to continue to decline before the Spring Festival, restricting the supply side. Although the sharp rise in aluminum prices increased the theoretical profit of the secondary aluminum industry, the market showed the characteristic of "high prices but few transactions", and demand continued to weaken. Overall, with high aluminum prices and a seasonal off - peak demand period, the price of cast aluminum alloy may remain volatile at a high level. [4] - As of January 31, the explicit inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.63 tons to 13.84 million tons compared with the previous week, with a rapid increase in factory inventory but a continuous decrease in social inventory. From January 1 - 31, the retail sales of the passenger car market nationwide were 1.8 million, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The estimated new energy retail sales were about 800,000, with a penetration rate of about 44.4%. In 2026, the maximum subsidy amount for the trade - in policy remained unchanged, but the subsidy method became more precise with the addition of vehicle prices as a limiting condition, which would benefit mid - to - high - end cars more. The weak retail data of automobiles in January this year was in line with expectations. [4] Summary by Directory Trading End - Volume and Price - Relevant data charts show the price differences between different AD contracts and the trends of capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest over time, but no specific text analysis is provided [7] Trading End - Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - For the cast aluminum alloy inter - period spread cost calculation within the warehouse receipt system, taking the AD2602 and AD2603 contracts on January 30, 2026 as an example, the fixed cost was 8.05 yuan/ton, the floating cost was 51.30 yuan/ton, and the total cost was 59 yuan/ton [10] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The actual spot quotation in the market fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking into account various costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and handling fees, the warehouse receipt cost was calculated to be 23,752.7 yuan/ton [11][12] Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously being depleted [14] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. For example, in December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41% [17] Supply End - Secondary Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the spread between secondary and primary aluminum has weakened [27] - Cast aluminum alloy regional spreads show certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy remained flat, while the monthly operating rate declined [37] - The monthly output of secondary aluminum alloy and its regional output shares are presented. For example, the output share of Henan is 0.34% [40][42] - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and the current estimated cost is above the break - even line. The cost structure includes 90% scrap aluminum, 2% silicon, 4% copper, 1% natural gas, and 3% other components [43][44] - The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly, while the social inventory has decreased slightly [48] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy has opened, and relevant import volume, cumulative import volume, and import profit data are presented [54][55] - The production and inventory data of secondary aluminum rods and their regional shares are provided. For example, the production share of Shandong in secondary aluminum rods is 9.27% [57][59] Demand End - Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: Automobile consumption has resilience, which is transmitted to die - casting consumption. Relevant data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances are presented, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the automobile inventory warning index [62][63]