Group 1 - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" trend is driving a super cycle in commodities, particularly benefiting upstream resources and midstream materials, with the true focus being on the midstream sector [2][14] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" phenomenon is a precursor to debt reduction, indicating that future demand-side policies will be crucial following the recent supply-side adjustments [3][15] - The ROIC-WACC metric is identified as a key indicator for measuring "involution," with industries like coking coal and photovoltaic equipment being classified as "true involution" sectors that are poised for growth [4][16] Group 2 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for August 2025, including companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi (computing), Yuandong Biological (pharmaceuticals), and BYD (automotive), among others [6][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand-side policy implementation and potential liquidity pressures from overseas markets [5][13] - The report notes that the strong exchange rate is expected to support continued export strength, which may exceed market expectations [5][13]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]