康波萧条

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康波萧条末期的中东地缘冲突升级
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-06-22 02:07
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].
超级关税全球股市脆断,周期天王十年预言一语成箴
鲁明量化全视角· 2025-04-06 02:10
每周思考总第623期 综上所述,上周全球股市如期大跌,A股表现相对强势但也仍在调整趋势,我们上周标题《全球 股市调整或仍将延续》再度切中当前市场最大焦点问题;美国对包括欧洲及日韩等传统盟友一致性加 征远超市场预期关税, 美股有重蹈95年前那轮相似事件下的经济、流动性双杀的风险 ,重申近3个月 反复强调的美股重大回避观点;中国政府第一时间强烈反制政策快速推出,对全球经济冲击短期加码 作用, 全球关税战强烈升级,康波萧条2025年准时落地 。 主板择时观点: 重申上周观点,目前国内基本面及技术面都支持A股延续调整,海外美股连续调整也 形成连带影响,继续控制仓位在中等并耐心等待,重点关注后续我国应对本次事件冲击的财政货币对 冲政策的具体发布时点与相关细节; 《 超级关税全球股市脆断,周期天王十年预言一语成箴 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现(2023.1.1 至今),其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至4 月6日累计收益7.79%。 观点简述: 上周市场延续调整,沪深300指数涨幅-1.37%,上证综指周涨幅-0.28%,中证500指数周涨 幅-1.19%。上周标题明确提示"全球股市调整",实际全球股 ...