弱基钦周期

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市场的双轮驱动系列一:交易PPI
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-07-29 15:18
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that despite the current low level of PPI, there is potential for marginal improvement, which, combined with a loose liquidity environment, may accelerate valuation recovery [2][10][12] - The report identifies two leading signals for PPI's marginal recovery: the transmission from the credit side and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery [17][18] - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to influence PPI trading, with expectations for valuation recovery in cyclical consumer assets, supported by recent government initiatives [2][24] Group 2 - The report discusses the early stage of the "anti-involution" market, highlighting that supply-demand resonance is a core variable driving PPI elasticity and market dynamics [26] - It notes that the current market environment is characterized by a weak base cycle, with PPI showing a significant decline, particularly in the mining and raw materials sectors [10][11] - The report suggests that the stock market has stronger liquidity premium protection compared to the commodity market, with certain sectors already showing signs of trend recovery [38][44] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from PPI marginal improvement expectations, including insurance, building materials, liquor, real estate, and chemicals [52] - The report highlights that the scope of the "anti-involution" policy has expanded beyond traditional cyclical sectors to include emerging manufacturing areas such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, indicating mid-term potential [52][54] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand-side policies that could either support or hinder the sustainability of the current market recovery [36][35]