投资策略周报 2025 年 10 月 26 日 策略研究团队 三季报当前的亮点，集中在科技和反内卷 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 坚定牛市信心，双轮驱动下，科技为先，PPI 交易为辅 市场回调后，我们对于指数的长期突破仍维持乐观判断: ①要坚定牛市信心，降 低斜率预期。前期市场已快速完成估值修复，接下来盈利才是胜负手。②市场结 构呈现【双轮驱动】，科技为先，PPI 交易为辅。③坚守科技，短期和长期，目 前尚不具备高低切条件。四中全会进一步肯定"产业"与"科技"的重要性，意 味着"十五五规划"或将会把科技和产业维度放在较为靠前的规划位置上。④虽 然市场进行全面高低切的窗口尚未到来，但我们认为科技内部需要关注高低切， 关注：电池、电网、消费电子、游戏、军工、互联网。 政策再次加码科技：推动科技创新向产业落地靠拢 四中全会系统谋划布局"十五五"经济社会发展，具有里程碑意义。对比三中全 会，四中全会的公报里，"产业"和"科技"提及频次大幅上 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 10月22日早盘，AH两市再度陷入调整。A股方面，三大指数集体低开，创业板指开盘后一度翻红，科 创100、科创50等指数盘中领跌，有色、煤炭、电力设备等行业板块跌幅居前。港股方面，三大指数低 开低走，恒生科技指数一度跌超1%，科网股多数下跌。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规模最大的恒生科技 指数ETF（513180）盘中一度跌近2%，持仓股中，中芯国际、腾讯音乐等涨幅居前，比亚迪电子、网 易、华虹半导体、百度集团、阿里巴巴、快手等领跌。 投资思路上，该机构认为，坚定牛市信心，双轮驱动下，科技为先，PPI交易为辅。科技内部要关注高 低切。操作上：（1）科技成长+自主可控：电池、电网、液冷、机器人、游戏、互联网、半导体、AI 应用、军工，此外关注与指数共振度较高的金融科技。（2）受益于"PPI边际改善+部分低位补涨"的顺 周期扩散：钢铁、化工、有色金属、建材有望受益，保险、白酒、地产或存估值修复机会。（3）具备 反内卷弹性、更"广谱"方向：本轮反内卷的范围已超越传统周期品，光伏、锂电、工程机械、医疗、港 股恒生互联网等部分制造与成长方向同样具备中期潜力。（4）出海结构性机会；（5）底仓配置 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently experiencing increased volatility, but it remains in a medium to long-term upward trend, with a focus on technology growth as the dominant theme [1][2]. Market Conditions - The A-share market has seen heightened fluctuations since early September, but it is believed to be in a clear medium to long-term upward trend, suggesting investors should not overly focus on short-term volatility [2]. - The driving forces behind the current market rally are identified as top-level design support for the capital market, increased liquidity from ETF inflows, and sustained positive catalysts from technological innovations such as AI [2]. Market Valuation - The current securities ratio (market capitalization to GDP) is approximately 0.86 to 0.87, indicating significant potential for market capitalization growth, as historical data shows that securities ratios above 1 often lead to higher market valuations [2]. Sector Analysis - There is ongoing discussion about whether the market will shift from high-growth technology sectors to lower-performing cyclical sectors; however, the conditions for such a shift are not yet present [3]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors are expected to maintain profitability advantages starting in 2025, supported by strong demand for AI computing power and a dual resonance in the semiconductor cycle driven by both consumer and corporate demand [3]. Investment Opportunities - The ChiNext index is currently viewed as the most cost-effective growth index in the market, with a diverse weight distribution across AI hardware, new energy, and pharmaceuticals [4]. - The Hong Kong market has faced challenges but is now entering an environment of incremental capital, with a focus on growth-oriented investments, particularly in AI hardware and applications [5]. Investment Strategy - In the current market, selecting sectors may be more critical than picking individual stocks, with a dual focus on technology growth stocks and sectors benefiting from PPI recovery [6]. - Recommendations include focusing on sectors with strong policy certainty such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and real estate for valuation recovery, while also considering consumer sectors with improving profitability [7].

Group 1 - Northbound capital has increased its holdings in A-shares for three consecutive quarters, with a significant flow into technology manufacturing, particularly in hardware equipment and semiconductors [1] - The current focus among institutions is whether there will be a style shift in the market, debating between dividends and technology as the main market theme [1] - According to Wei Jixing, Chief Strategist at Kaiyuan Securities, the market does not yet have the conditions for a comprehensive style switch, indicating that technology stocks will outperform in the medium to long term [1] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [2]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, emphasizing a "technology first" strategy supported by dual drivers: technology leadership and PPI trading [2][11][40] - Current market characteristics highlight a strong focus on technology, with funds diversifying from a few high-performing sectors to a broader range of sub-themes within technology, enhancing the belief in "technology first" [2][11][40] - For investors seeking lower-priced alternatives to previously high-performing sectors like optical modules and innovative drugs, the report suggests focusing on gaming, media, internet, Huawei's supply chain, and battery sectors [2][11][40] Group 2 - The report identifies a calendar effect where the market typically experiences "pre-holiday sluggishness and post-holiday enthusiasm," with specific sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and agriculture expected to outperform in October [3][17][25] - Historical data indicates that the probability of market leadership switching or crossing over around the holiday is similar, with technology sectors more likely to maintain their leadership [4][35][36] - The report outlines a "4+1" industry allocation strategy, recommending technology growth, self-sufficiency, military industry, cyclical sectors benefiting from PPI improvements, and stable dividend stocks [5][44][45] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current technology leadership is supported by three long-term factors: relative profitability of technology sectors, overseas market influences, and a global semiconductor cycle that is trending upward [4][40] - The report highlights that the market's main themes have shifted over the years, with technology sectors like fintech and TMT being more resilient during holiday periods [35][36][39] - Specific sectors such as AI hardware, semiconductors, and robotics are recommended for investment, alongside cyclical sectors like metals and chemicals that may benefit from PPI improvements [5][44][45]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI computing industry, driven by significant investments from major overseas companies, which is expected to boost the demand for related technologies and services [25][27][33] - The introduction of a national childcare subsidy program in China is anticipated to stimulate demand in the dairy sector, particularly in infant formula, as it aims to increase birth rates [43][44][45] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the communication sector, particularly for Corning, which reported strong Q2 earnings and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI-related technologies [24][25][26] Industry Analysis Communication Sector - Corning's Q2 2025 revenue reached $4.05 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with a notable 41% growth in its optical communications segment [24][25] - The company's "Scale-up" strategy is projected to significantly enhance its sales and profit margins by 2026, with expectations of a $10 billion market opportunity in data center interconnects by 2030 [26][27] Dairy Sector - The national childcare subsidy program is set to provide annual cash benefits of 3,600 yuan per child, which is expected to positively impact birth rates and subsequently increase demand for infant formula [43][44] - The report anticipates a recovery in the demand for infant formula in 2025, driven by the subsidy and a favorable demographic shift [45][46] AI Computing Industry - The integration of AI technologies is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly through platforms like NVIDIA's Omniverse, which facilitates collaboration and simulation across various industries [29][30][31] - The report identifies several investment opportunities within the AI computing supply chain, including optical modules and liquid cooling technologies, which are poised for growth as AI applications expand [27][33] Agricultural Sector - Haida Group reported a 12.5% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by strong sales in its feed business, particularly in the pig and poultry segments [60][61] - The company is also expanding its international market presence, with a 40% year-on-year increase in overseas feed sales [61][62] Real Estate and Property Management - South Property's diversified service model is expected to enhance profitability, with a projected net profit of 168 million yuan for 2025 [54][55] - The company is leveraging technology, such as cleaning robots, to improve service efficiency and reduce costs [58][59]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that despite the current low level of PPI, there is potential for marginal improvement, which, combined with a loose liquidity environment, may accelerate valuation recovery [2][10][12] - The report identifies two leading signals for PPI's marginal recovery: the transmission from the credit side and the structural divergence between CRB and PPI, indicating a potential for price recovery [17][18] - The "anti-involution" policy has begun to influence PPI trading, with expectations for valuation recovery in cyclical consumer assets, supported by recent government initiatives [2][24] Group 2 - The report discusses the early stage of the "anti-involution" market, highlighting that supply-demand resonance is a core variable driving PPI elasticity and market dynamics [26] - It notes that the current market environment is characterized by a weak base cycle, with PPI showing a significant decline, particularly in the mining and raw materials sectors [10][11] - The report suggests that the stock market has stronger liquidity premium protection compared to the commodity market, with certain sectors already showing signs of trend recovery [38][44] Group 3 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors benefiting from PPI marginal improvement expectations, including insurance, building materials, liquor, real estate, and chemicals [52] - The report highlights that the scope of the "anti-involution" policy has expanded beyond traditional cyclical sectors to include emerging manufacturing areas such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, indicating mid-term potential [52][54] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the demand-side policies that could either support or hinder the sustainability of the current market recovery [36][35]