三、需求支撑与产业洗牌：新能源托底，中国龙头掌控全局 2026年1月26日，长江现货镍价上演"王者归来"，1#镍均价单日飙升4150元/吨至154100元/吨，强势收复 关键关口。这并非偶然反弹，而是一场由 "美元信用危机"与 "印尼资源革命"双核驱动的行情总爆发。 随着全球宏观格局剧变与资源国政策的重磅突袭，镍市场正从产能过剩的泥潭中挣脱，迎来价值与逻辑 的彻底重估。 一、宏观变局：美元溃退与流动性潮汐共振 本次镍价暴涨的根基，在于全球资本流向的深刻逆转。美元指数日内跌破97关口，创下去年9月以来新 低，其背后是市场对美联储降息周期的笃定预期与美国巨额债务压力的双重狙击。美元资产的吸引力下 降，促使国际资本大规模转向大宗商品寻求"价值锚点"。与此同时，国内超长期特别国债资金火速下 达，央行维持流动性宽松，政策层面，新能源汽车购置税减免政策确定延续至2027年底，并辅以"以旧 换新"补贴加码，预计将推动2026年国内新能源车销量突破1200万辆，直接拉动动力电池用镍需求增长 超15%。内外宏观形成了罕见的 "弱美元+宽流动性"共振格局，为包括镍在内的整个有色金属板块提供 了澎湃的估值驱动力和情绪支撑。此外，全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a "tight balance" in supply and a "structural transformation" in demand, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and technological shifts in battery applications [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,920 yuan, reaching a high of 17,025 yuan and closing at 16,995 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 1,977.5 USD, an increase of 7.5 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market is reported at 16,950 yuan, with a slight increase of 10 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by a sharp reduction in imported lead concentrate, leading to tight resource availability, while high prices of by-products like silver and antimony are driving smelters to maintain high operating rates [3]. - The recycling of lead from waste batteries faces challenges due to an inefficient recovery system, resulting in a year-on-year contraction in production [3]. - Traditional demand from lead-acid batteries remains stable but is under pressure from the technological advancements of lithium batteries [3]. - Emerging demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is rapidly increasing, becoming a key structural increment in lead demand [3]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the lead market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation, with northern regions experiencing tightened supply and southern markets showing limited demand [4]. - Traders are cautious, with a reluctance to sell, leading to relatively firm pricing, while downstream buyers are primarily focused on essential purchases [4].