Core Viewpoint - The Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a blue alert for severe convective weather, predicting strong thunderstorms and hail in various regions from October 2 to October 3 [1] Weather Forecast - From 14:00 on October 2 to 14:00 on October 3, areas in eastern Jianghuai and northeastern Jiangnan are expected to experience thunderstorms with wind speeds exceeding level 8, with some regions in southern Jiangsu, northern and western Shanghai, and northern Zhejiang potentially facing winds above level 10, with maximum wind speeds reaching over level 11 [1] - The northeastern region of Southwest China, western Jianghan, eastern Jianghuai, and northeastern Jiangnan are forecasted to have short-term heavy rainfall, with hourly rainfall exceeding 20 millimeters in some areas, and regions in southern Jiangsu and northern and western Shanghai may see hourly rainfall exceeding 50 millimeters, with maximum amounts potentially reaching over 60 millimeters [1] - The main impact period for the severe convective weather is expected to be from the afternoon to the night of October 2 [1]

央视网消息：中央气象台10月2日06时继续发布强对流天气蓝色预警，预计10月2日08时至3日08时，江 南东北部、江淮东部等地的部分地区将有8级以上雷暴大风或冰雹天气，其中，江苏东部和南部等地的 部分地区将有10级以上雷暴大风，最大风力可达11级以上；西南地区东北部、江汉西部、江淮中部和东 部、江南东北部、海南岛等地的部分地区将有小时雨量大于20毫米的短时强降水天气，其中，江苏东部 和南部、湖北西南部、浙江北部、重庆东北部等地的部分地区小时雨量大于50毫米，最大可达60毫米以 上。 预计，强对流的主要影响时段为下午至夜间。 防御指南： 1.政府及相关部门按照职责做好防短时暴雨、防雷、防大风准备工作，气象部门做好人工防雹作业准 备； 2.户外行人和工作人员减少户外活动，注意远离棚架广告牌等搭建物； 3.驱赶家禽、牲畜进入有顶蓬的场所，关好门窗加固棚舍； 4.相关水域水上作业和过往船舶采取回港规避或者绕道航行等积极应对措施，工地注意遮盖建筑物资， 妥善安置易受暴雨、风雹影响的室外物品； 5.检查城市、农田、鱼塘排水系统，做好排涝准备和对山洪、滑坡、泥石流等灾害的防御准备。 ...

Group 1 - Typhoon "Hagupit" is expected to be the strongest typhoon to make landfall in China this year, with significant impacts anticipated [1] - The typhoon has a diameter exceeding 1000 kilometers, indicating its large energy and abundant moisture, necessitating high attention to its subsequent effects [1] - The cold air moving southward is influencing the typhoon's path, which will primarily move westward along the coasts of Guangdong and Guangxi [1] Group 2 - The typhoon's wind radius is 150 kilometers, and vessels in the affected sea areas are advised to return to port and secure port facilities [1] - The combination of the astronomical tide during the lunar calendar's third day and the storm surge from "Hagupit" may lead to seawater backflow in the Pearl River Estuary [2] - Residents are urged to prepare emergency supplies, secure windows and doors, avoid going outside, and closely monitor relevant warnings and forecasts [2]

Core Insights - On September 17, Shanghai set three meteorological records, with the highest temperature reaching 37.3°C, marking the latest hot day in the city's history [1] - As of September 17, the total number of high-temperature days this year has reached 53, making it the second highest since records began in 1873 [1] - The number of high-temperature days in September has reached 8, the highest for the month [1] Weather Patterns - A significant cold air mass is approaching, leading to intense interactions between warm and cold air in Shanghai [1] - Strong convective weather was observed in the northern and central parts of Shanghai, with hail approximately 1 cm in diameter reported in several districts [1] - The forecast indicates that high temperatures above 35°C will be rare in the next 10 days, with increased rainfall expected due to the influence of eastern sea air currents [1] Tropical Activity - The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that 2 to 3 typhoons may form in the South China Sea and the Northwest Pacific region due to active tropical convection [1]

Core Points - The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for severe convective weather, predicting strong thunderstorms and hail in various regions from September 15 to September 16 [1][3] - Areas expected to experience wind speeds of 8 or above include southern Northeast China, northern North China, and eastern and southern Huanghuai, with some regions in northern Shanxi and northern Hebei potentially seeing winds exceeding level 10 [1] - Heavy rainfall is anticipated, with hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm in several regions, and some areas like central Liaoning, southern Shandong, northern Anhui, northern Jiangsu, and central Sichuan may see hourly rainfall exceeding 50 mm, with maximums potentially reaching over 70 mm [1] Defense Guidelines - Government and relevant departments should prepare for short-term heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, with meteorological departments readying for artificial hail prevention [5] - Outdoor activities should be minimized, and individuals should stay away from temporary structures and billboards [5] - Livestock should be moved to covered areas, and doors and windows should be secured [5] - Water operations and passing vessels should take measures to return to port or navigate around affected areas, while construction sites should cover materials and secure outdoor items [5] - Drainage systems in cities, farmland, and fish ponds should be checked, and preparations for flood and landslide defenses should be made [5]

Core Viewpoint - The occurrence of severe convective weather, including hailstorms, in northern China during mid-September is unusual but not abnormal, attributed to the interaction of cold and warm air masses as the seasons transition [3][5][6]. Group 1: Weather Phenomena - Severe convective weather, including thunderstorms and hail, was reported in Beijing and surrounding areas due to the influence of a "supercell storm" [1][3]. - The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue alert for severe convective weather, predicting continued thunderstorms and hail in various regions [1][3]. - The phenomenon of hail is linked to the characteristics of the thunderstorm clouds, with the size and quantity of hail being influenced by the vertical motion within these clouds [6]. Group 2: Meteorological Analysis - The primary causes of the recent severe weather include the southward movement of the westerly wind belt and the influx of warm, moist air from the south, creating conditions favorable for severe convective weather [3][5]. - Although the frequency of such weather events in September is low, it is not considered rare, as similar occurrences have been documented in previous years [4][5]. - The distribution of hail is uneven, with localized areas experiencing significant accumulation while others remain unaffected, due to the small scale of the thunderstorm clouds [6]. Group 3: Future Weather Predictions - The likelihood of further severe convective weather events is expected to decrease as the transition from summer to autumn progresses, although isolated incidents may still occur [7]. - Predictions indicate potential thunderstorms in specific regions, but the overall probability of severe weather is lower compared to the recent events [7].

Group 1 - A strong convective weather event occurred in Beijing on the night of September 13, resulting in thunderstorms and hail, with some areas experiencing significant accumulation of hail, leading to a phenomenon referred to as "Ice Age" by netizens [1][2] - The average rainfall in Beijing from 16:00 on September 13 to 02:00 on September 14 was 6.8 millimeters, with the maximum rainfall recorded at 42.5 millimeters in Mentougou [1] - The weather conditions leading to this event included high temperatures in early September, creating favorable low-level warm and humid conditions, combined with the influence of cold air from above, resulting in unstable atmospheric layering conducive to severe convective weather [2] Group 2 - The convective cloud system intensified as it moved from mountainous areas to the plains, forming a "supercell storm" that is prone to producing hail, strong winds, and localized heavy rainfall [2] - Meteorological forecasts indicate that another rainfall event is expected in Beijing from the morning to midnight of September 15, with light thunderstorms and varying rainfall intensities across the city [2]

Group 1 - The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning for severe convective weather, predicting strong thunderstorms and hail in parts of Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and northern Jiangnan from September 14, 08:00 to September 15, 08:00 [2] - Areas in central and southeastern Heilongjiang are expected to experience thunderstorm winds exceeding level 10, while parts of the Northeast, Northwest Huabei, northern Jiangnan, and eastern and southwestern regions may see short-term heavy rainfall with hourly precipitation exceeding 20 mm, and in some areas like southeastern Chongqing and southwestern Guizhou, it could exceed 50 mm, reaching up to 60 mm [2] - The main impact period for the severe convective weather is expected to be during the daytime of September 14 [3] Group 2 - The government and relevant departments are advised to prepare for short-term heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, while meteorological departments should be ready for artificial hail prevention [4] - Outdoor activities should be minimized, and people should stay away from structures like awnings and billboards [4] - Livestock should be moved to covered areas, and windows and doors should be secured [4] Group 3 - A severe convective weather event occurred in Beijing on the evening of September 13, with scattered thunderstorms, strong winds, hail, and short-term heavy rainfall reported [5] - Citizens described the hail as unprecedented, with some sharing videos showing significant accumulation of hailstones [6] - The formation of this severe hailstorm was attributed to a supercell thunderstorm, influenced by unstable atmospheric conditions due to a late southward shift of the subtropical high and abundant moisture in the lower atmosphere [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the blue alert for severe convective weather issued by the Central Meteorological Observatory, highlighting the expected severe weather conditions across various regions in China, including strong winds, hail, and heavy rainfall [2][3]. Summary by Sections - **Severe Weather Forecast** - A blue alert for severe convective weather is in effect from September 14, 08:00 to September 15, 08:00, predicting areas in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and northern Jiangnan to experience winds exceeding level 8, with some regions in Heilongjiang expected to see winds above level 10 [2]. - Short-term heavy rainfall is anticipated, with hourly rainfall exceeding 20 mm in several areas, and some regions in Chongqing and Guizhou may see hourly rainfall exceeding 50 mm, potentially reaching over 60 mm [2]. - **Impact Timing** - The main impact period for the severe convective weather is expected to be during the daytime of September 14 [3]. - **Defense Guidelines** - Government and relevant departments should prepare for short-term heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, while meteorological departments should be ready for artificial hail prevention [6]. - Outdoor activities should be minimized, and individuals should stay away from temporary structures [6]. - Livestock should be moved to sheltered areas, and windows and doors should be secured [6]. - Waterway operations should take precautions, and construction sites should protect materials from the weather [6]. - Drainage systems in urban areas, farmland, and fish ponds should be checked and prepared for potential flooding and landslides [6]. - **Recent Severe Weather Events** - On the evening of September 13, Beijing experienced severe convective weather, including thunderstorms, strong winds, hail, and short-term heavy rainfall, leading to public astonishment at the intensity of the hail [8]. - The hailstorm was attributed to the formation of a supercell thunderstorm, influenced by unstable atmospheric conditions due to the late southward movement of the subtropical high and abundant moisture in the lower atmosphere [8][9]. - The combination of cold air aloft and warm, moist air below created an unstable stratification conducive to the development of severe convective weather [9].

Group 1 - The Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning for severe convective weather, predicting strong thunderstorms and hail in various regions from September 13 to September 14 [1] - Areas expected to experience wind speeds exceeding level 10 include central Inner Mongolia, northern Hebei, and northwestern Beijing, with significant rainfall forecasted in parts of southern Hubei, northwestern Hunan, southeastern Chongqing, and northeastern Guizhou [1] - The main impact period for severe convective weather is anticipated to be from the afternoon to the night of September 13 [1] Group 2 - Government and relevant departments are advised to prepare for short-term heavy rain, thunderstorms, and strong winds, with meteorological departments readying for artificial hail prevention [4] - Outdoor activities should be minimized, and individuals are advised to stay away from temporary structures and billboards [4] - Precautions include securing livestock in covered areas, checking drainage systems, and preparing for potential disasters such as mountain floods and landslides [4]