Group 1 - The weather in China is currently complex, with both high temperatures and heavy rainfall expected to persist in various regions [1][2] - From August 2 to 6, northern regions will experience significant rainfall, with localized areas receiving 100 to 150 millimeters of rain [1] - Southern regions, particularly in Guangdong, Guangxi, and southern Guizhou, are forecasted to face heavy rainfall, including possible extreme downpours [2] Group 2 - The high temperatures are expected to affect areas such as southern North China, Huanghuai, Jianghan, and parts of Sichuan and Shaanxi, with temperatures reaching 35°C to 38°C, and some areas exceeding 40°C [2][3] - The agricultural sector is warned about the high-temperature risks affecting rice crops, with recommendations for temperature regulation and fertilization to mitigate impacts [3] - The high temperatures pose risks to transportation and public health, with road surface temperatures potentially reaching 62°C to 74°C in certain regions, necessitating caution for drivers [3]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market has a complex situation with both supply - demand and external factor impacts [7] - Macroscopically, there are tariff disturbances as Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU on August 1st. The USDA July monthly supply - demand report shows a slight adjustment in the global cotton market, with total production up 310,000 tons to 25.78 million tons and total consumption up 80,000 tons to 25.72 million tons, and a slight accumulation of ending stocks. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream industry is weak, and short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain. However, considering the consumption off - season, tariff disturbances, and lack of weather - related impacts, the upside potential should be viewed with caution [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The cotton sales basis is different in different regions. The pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in downstream operating rates, stable yarn prices, and a slight increase in inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the market outlook for July and August is generally pessimistic [7] - **Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**: Tariff disturbances exist. The USDA report shows minor adjustments in the global cotton market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream is weak. Short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain, but the upside potential is limited due to the off - season, tariff issues, and lack of weather impacts [8] 3.2 Industry News - The agricultural rural department's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. Most cotton in China is in the budding to flowering stage, with a development period 4 - 7 days earlier than usual. There is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang in July. The cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in the off - season, and spinning mills are cautious in raw material procurement [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range. In the international market, the favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton, and factors such as a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices. Macroeconomic factors like U.S. tariff policies pose risks. In the domestic market, it's the off - season for textile consumption, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing raw materials. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature risks in some Xinjiang areas support price increases, but the slow de - stocking process drags down the price rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengmian main contract closing price: 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 19,985 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 20,573 lots, up 3,092 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 14 lots, up 58 lots - Cotton main contract positions: 546,763 lots, up 3,515 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 22,435 lots, down 557 lots - Cotton warehouse receipts: 9,932 sheets, down 39 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 51 sheets, up 49 sheets - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 20,420 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 13,632 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tariff): 14,377 yuan/ton; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S) arrival price: 22,044 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S) arrival price: 23,837 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Not mentioned separately other than data in the futures section 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,236 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide: 850,000 tons, up 24,000 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 40,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 816 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide: 3.4587 million tons, down 693,900 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; grey fabric inventory days: 35.46 days, up 2.57 days - Monthly cloth production: 2.67 billion meters, down 50 million meters; monthly yarn production: 1.951 million tons, down 36,000 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value: 1.3577737 billion US dollars, up 197.1179 million US dollars; monthly textile yarn, fabric and product export value: 1.2631773 billion US dollars, up 5.2109 million US dollars - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 10.06%, up 1%; cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 5.11%, unchanged; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 9.22%, down 0.86% [2] 3.6 Industry News - Nationwide commercial cotton inventory is decreasing. As of July 4, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.7476 million tons, down 132,300 tons (a decrease of 4.59%) from the previous week. In Xinjiang, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.9128 million tons, down 117,100 tons (a decrease of 5.77%); in inland areas, it was 435,500 tons, down 2,500 tons (a decrease of 0.57%) - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) weekly crop growth report, as of the week ending July 6, 2025, the boll - setting rate of U.S. cotton was 14% (9% the previous week, 18% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 15%); the budding rate was 48% (40% the previous week, 51% the same period last year, and a five - year average of 49%); the good - quality rate was 52% (51% the previous week, 45% the same period last year). Favorable weather has increased the good - quality rate, while a stronger dollar and a weaker grain market have pushed down U.S. cotton prices [2] 3.7 Suggestions - Pay attention to weather and macro - economic factors as the cotton market shows an overall trend of slightly stronger fluctuations in a range, with the de - stocking process being slow and the textile industry in a consumption off - season [2]