以下文章来源于华尔街见闻 ，作者乐鸣 华尔街见闻 . 华尔街见闻App是中国领先的金融信息和商业资讯提供商，为用户甄选国内和全球重要资讯，7*24小时全年不间断。 随着黄金价格失控式上涨，虽然最近下调了不少，但很明显和以往给黄金"定价"的美元实际利率早就已经"脱钩"。 传统估值模式很难给黄金定价，因为黄金本身不能产生现金流，所以所谓的价值投资者们都半开玩笑地说：黄金价格取决于别人觉得它值多 少钱。 这实际上是在讽刺黄金价格的投机性。 然而，随着黄金开始挣脱美元实际利率的牢笼，黄金也开始真正有了"估值"。 在下面内容中，我们测算了黄金的"底价"以及金价的"上限"。 01 黄金的"底价"：1600美元 黄金真的就是别人看值多少就值多少的东西么？ 部分价格肯定是有这些成分的，但是剥去这部分"别人眼中的西施"的估值，黄金还是有真实价值。 这个真实价值最直接的对应就：是把黄金从地里挖出来，变成标准金条的成本。 这个成本虽然有很多变量：矿本身品味的"好坏"、当地开采的直接成本（基建、机械、人力成本）、环境成本、税收等等，但是这个成本本 身就构成了黄金的"底价"——因为黄金以标准金条存在本身，就已经凝结了无差别的人类劳动在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of gold, highlighting its "floor price" and "ceiling price" amidst rising gold prices and the disconnect from traditional pricing mechanisms like the US dollar's real interest rates [3][6]. Group 1: Gold's Floor Price - The estimated "floor price" of gold is around $1,600 per ounce, which reflects the intrinsic value derived from the costs associated with mining and refining gold [9][26]. - The All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) is a key metric for determining the ongoing costs of gold mining, with the latest data showing a global average AISC of $1,456 per ounce as of Q3 2024 [19][20]. - The AISC is expected to rise due to inflationary pressures and increased operational costs, with projections for AISC in Q3 2025 ranging from $1,350 to $1,650 per ounce [20][27]. Group 2: Gold's Ceiling Price - The article estimates the ceiling price of gold to be between $40,000 and $70,000 per ounce based on global wealth comparisons, with a more practical ceiling around $5,000 per ounce [37][48]. - The valuation of gold against global monetary supply suggests a price of over $12,000 per ounce, but this is considered an overestimate due to the nature of currency and trade dynamics [44][48]. - The analysis indicates that the long-term nominal price of gold is likely to exceed $5,000 per ounce, driven by various dynamic factors affecting the market [48].