今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4328美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4366.03美 元/盎司，涨幅0.66%，最高上探至4366.82美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短 线偏向看涨走势。 摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于4328美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报4366.03 美元/盎司，涨幅0.66%，最高上探至4366.82美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金 短线偏向看涨走势。 周二数据显示，美国10月房价同比涨幅创逾13年新低，虽反映住房可负担性改善，却暗示经济放缓或促 美联储进一步宽松。两年/10年期美债利差报67基点，市场预计1月降息概率仅16.1%。总体看，美元与 收益率年末涨势限制黄金反弹，但全年美元疲软、利差收窄，仍是金价飙升的关键支撑。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 黄金4小时周期经历剧烈多空切换：自4550美元/盎司阶段高点急挫247美元至4303美元，随后反弹至 4405美元，现回落至4335美元，整体呈高位震荡偏空格局。 指标显示，当前数值处25区间且向下拐头，红柱持续缩量并向绿柱过渡，多头 ...

大家好，久违了！ 24 年 9 月的时候，我们曾经发布过视频《 你问我要去向何方？ 》，回顾了那一年的研究成果。当时就有很多朋友来问：你是不是要离 开啦？十五个月之后，停步转身，子弹正中眉心。 启新岁，发韧程，期万里 。 得益于任所的鼎力推荐，感谢黄董事长 、 蒋总等领导的认可，我已正式入职华福证券，担任所长助理 、 宏观首席分析师，继续带领团 队，在市场上提供"质优（ 定制服务保质量，但是得加钱 ）价廉（ 基础服务 ）" 、 "童叟无欺（ 不因客户经验少就随便忽悠 ）"的宏 观经济 、政策 和资产配置研究服务。 得失之间，十年一瞬 在近十年的资本市场宏观研究经历中，我自认为最近的这一年多，是到目前为止，我们做的最好的一年。 按照目前市场一致预期的风格，写到这里夸完自己，这部分应该就结束了。但如果研究口碑只是依赖于粉饰和遮掩的话，那注定是建在 沙滩上的城堡。坦率地讲，我们也并非全知全能，在全球资产研究"怎么说怎么有"的背景下，对国内经济形势的判断却闹了个"乌龙"。 对 25 年展望的年度策略报告，我们起的题目叫做《 准备迎接通胀 》，当时也得到了很高的关注。诚然，大家虽觉得我们对通胀的高度 看得有些离谱，但是 ...

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 国内首饰金价突破1400元/克 ， 现货黄金折算人民币突破1000元/克 ， 纽约现货黄金价格站上4400美元/盎司 ， 并不断刷新历史纪录 ， 黄金 再次成为众人的焦点 。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 每当类似场景出现 ， 投资者的情绪往往会迅速分化 。 我们可能一边有 担心错过的焦虑 ， 一边是对 高位风险的警惕 。 表面看是分歧 ， 实则指 向同一个问题 ： 黄金 ， 到底该怎么配 ？ 最近一段时间 ， 后台留言中提及黄金的频次明显上升 。 这种在 " 想配 " 与 " 不敢配 " 之间反复摇摆的状态 ， 正是当下不少投资者的真实写照 。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 最近一段时间 ， 黄金再次站到了市场的聚光灯下 。 从资产配置的角度看 ， 黄金确实是一种重要的配置资产 ， 但它的核心作用 ， 并不是为了提升 ...

宏观：黄金定价的终极属性是什么？20251212 Q&A 黄金市场的历史周期可以分为三个主要阶段，每个阶段都有不同的驱动因素。 第一轮黄金上涨周期始于 2001 年，结束于 2012 年，历时 12 年，涨幅接近 6 倍。这一阶段的主要驱动因素是全球风险事件频发和流动性长期宽松。2001 年的美国经济衰退、911 恐怖袭击事件，以及随后伊拉克战争和金融危机等一 系列事件推动了避险情绪升温，黄金价格不断上涨。此外，黄金 ETF 的诞生也 显著加强了黄金的流动性和投资功能。 第二轮黄金牛市始于次贷危机和欧债危 机爆发期间。2007 年 8 月 9 日法国巴黎银行宣布冻结旗下 3 只对美国次级贷 款存在敞口的投资基金，引发次贷危机；2008 年 9 月雷曼兄弟破产标志着金 融危机全面升级。在此期间，美联储推出零利率政策和多轮量化宽松政策，使 得流动性泛滥、实际利率下行，推动金价快速上涨。到 2011 年三季度末，金 价达到 1,900 美元每盎司高点。 第三轮黄金牛市从 2018 年至今，这一阶段主 要受中美贸易摩擦、去美元化趋势以及地缘政治冲突等因素驱动。特朗普政府 对中国加征关税引发贸易摩擦，美国政策不确定性上 ...

黄金时代-金工：金价是否还在利率框架内？20251212 黄金价格仍然在美元实际利率的框架内进行定价。从 2022 年开始，美元实际 利率经历了从负利率震荡到加息进程，再到 2023 年 10 月加息周期结束后进 入高位震荡偏下行的市场环境。预计未来将再次进入降息通道。历史数据显示， 黄金价格对实际利率的响应具有一定相似性，并未完全脱离实际利率作为定价 中枢的轨道。 在理论上，黄金作为无息资产，其机会成本由实际利率决定。当 实际利率上行时，对金价有压制作用；当实际利率下行时，对金价有支撑作用。 然而，需要同时考虑国际形势变化、央行购金和 ETF 发展等因素，这些因素会 影响黄金需求，从而导致价格波动。 通过量化研究发现，黄金价格与美元实际 利率之间并非简单线性关系，而是呈现出非对称关系。在趋势下行周期中，如 黄金 ETF 资金流动与黄金价格高度相关，尤其是在 2024 年后。但在 2022 年至 2024 年的背离期，俄乌冲突导致部分机构转向实物黄金， 加息周期内部分 ETF 资金赎回。ETF 资金对短期金价波动有显著影响。 综合考虑利率、央行购金和 ETF 资金流入等因素，若未来一年实际利率 下降 100 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Characteristics - The current gold bull market is characterized by simultaneous increases in both risk assets (stocks) and safe-haven assets (gold) [2] - Gold has significantly outperformed U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar during this bull market [5] - The price of gold has increased approximately 200% since 2018, reflecting its strategic reserve property amid global uncertainties [7] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Cycles - Historical analysis reveals three distinct cycles of gold price increases: 23-fold from 1970-1980, 6-fold from 2001-2012, and approximately 2-fold from 2018 to present [7] - The first cycle (1970-1980) was driven by inflation concerns, with gold prices rising due to high inflation rates, peaking during the oil crises [6] - The second cycle (2001-2012) was influenced by financial attributes, particularly following the 2008 financial crisis, where gold became a key financial asset [6] Group 3: Macro Factors Influencing Gold - Gold serves as a hedge against inflation, opportunity costs, and the collapse of the fiat currency system, reflecting its three properties: commodity, financial, and monetary [8] - The shift in global economic power dynamics has led to a renewed interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, especially as confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries wanes [9] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since 2022, marking a notable change in demand structure [7]

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, providing new momentum for gold prices to rise [1] Demand and Supply Analysis - The report emphasizes that the marginal demand for gold is becoming a more significant factor in its pricing, with traditional supply-demand logic indicating that gold supply remains relatively stable at around 3,600 tons annually [1] - Gold demand is categorized into three main components: private sector consumption demand, private sector investment demand, and official gold purchases [1] - Historically, the marginal demand for gold has been primarily driven by ETF demand from the private sector in Europe and the U.S., which is largely influenced by the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Interest Rate Influence - CITIC Securities notes a strong correlation between private sector investment demand (such as ETF demand) and the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - With the decline in U.S. inflation and a decrease in labor market resilience, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased in the latter half of the year [1] - The anticipated decrease in nominal and real interest rates due to these cuts is expected to inject new momentum into gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that marginal demand has become increasingly significant in explaining gold pricing, with stable supply and an annual production of approximately 3,600 tons [1][2] - Gold demand is categorized into three parts: private sector consumption, investment, and official purchases, with past marginal demand primarily driven by European and American ETF demand [1][2] - The investment framework for these ETFs is closely linked to the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds, and private sector investment demand remains strongly correlated with these rates [1][2] Group 2 - As U.S. inflation declines and labor market resilience weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased for the second half of the year [1][2] - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to lead to a decrease in both nominal and real interest rates, which will likely drive gold prices higher [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price uptrend, which began in 2019, has lasted for six years with a cumulative increase of 219%, raising market concerns about future price movements [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context - Gold has experienced three major uptrends since 1968, with the first from 1970 to 1980 (highest increase of 2323%) and the second from 2001 to 2012 (highest increase of 599%) [2]. - The current uptrend, starting in 2019, has shown a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, which is shorter in duration compared to previous cycles [3]. Group 2: Monetary Attributes - The dollar has depreciated nearly 100% against gold since 1970, with a 35% decline in 2025 alone, driven by increasing fiscal deficits and monetary supply [9]. - The relationship between the dollar index and gold prices has been negative, with the dollar index dropping nearly 10 percentage points since 2025, benefiting gold prices [9]. - Economic and political uncertainties have increased the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index significantly since early 2025, impacting the dollar's credibility [11]. Group 3: Commodity Attributes - Central bank gold purchases have surged from 255 tons in 2020 to 1089 tons in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 44%, increasing their share of total demand from 5% to 22% [15]. - Jewelry demand has decreased from approximately 50% before 2020 to 32% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a shift in demand dynamics [15]. - Global gold reserves have increased significantly, with European countries showing high reserve ratios, contributing to upward pressure on gold prices [15]. Group 4: Financial Attributes - The traditional negative correlation between real interest rates and gold prices has weakened since 2021, as high inflation distorts real interest rates and enhances gold's anti-inflation properties [22]. - Real interest rates have increased by 213% during the current cycle, contrasting with previous cycles where they remained near zero or negative [38]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to gold prices is approaching historical averages, suggesting that gold may be fully valued relative to equities, yet still has room for growth compared to previous cycles [22]. Group 5: Key Variables for Future Price Movements - The report identifies three critical variables that will influence future gold prices: geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [25][32]. - The geopolitical risk index has risen by 72% since 2019, reflecting heightened global tensions due to events like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [28][31]. - Global gold reserves have increased by 167% during the current cycle, a significant rise compared to previous periods, indicating a strategic shift among central banks [35].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of gold assets, with significant price increases in both international and domestic markets, leading to a historic high in China's gold ETF scale [1][4][30] - China's gold reserves have been steadily increasing, reaching 2,068 tons by the end of September 2023, ranking fourth globally, which is crucial for financial security and optimizing foreign exchange reserves [1][9][10] - The domestic gold ETF market has rapidly developed due to rising investment demand, with a total of 63 ETFs and a market size exceeding 1,200 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 63.1% [1][34] - The report discusses the complex pricing factors of gold, emphasizing the inverse relationship between gold prices and the real yield of U.S. Treasury bonds, as well as gold's role as a safe-haven asset during market volatility [1][36] - A quantitative strategy for gold ETF timing is proposed, showing annualized returns of 12.3% since 2020, with a maximum drawdown of -12.5% [1] Domestic Gold Asset Development Status - China's gold reserves have shown a steady growth trend, with the People's Bank of China continuously increasing its holdings, reflecting the importance of gold in stabilizing financial security and enhancing international payment capabilities [9][10] - In the first half of 2023, domestic gold production was 158.5 tons, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while gold imports increased by 12.3% [10][12] Global Gold Demand Trends - Global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of 2023, with total demand of 1,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%, driven primarily by investment demand [12][14] - The demand for gold jewelry has decreased in weight but increased in value due to rising prices, with global gold jewelry consumption dropping 6% to 400 tons in the third quarter of 2023 [13][24] Gold Pricing Factors - The report identifies U.S. Treasury real yields as a primary pricing factor for gold, with gold prices inversely related to these yields, influenced by U.S. economic data [36] - Gold's safe-haven attribute is highlighted, as demand increases during market turmoil, with supply and demand dynamics also playing a critical role in gold pricing [1][36] Gold Price Time Series Model - A time series prediction model for gold ETF logarithmic returns has been constructed, aiding investment decision-making [1] Huashan Gold ETF Timing Strategy - The Huashan Gold ETF timing strategy has provided specific operational guidance for investors, achieving an annualized return of 12.3% since 2020 [1]