Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The resumption of VAT collection on the interest income of new - issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, may lead to a joint increase in the yields of new and old national bonds. It is recommended to closely monitor the market's attitude towards newly - issued national bonds after August 8, 2025 [5][6]. - It is expected that the target of the 10 - year national bond yield in the second half of 2025 will be 1.9 - 2.2%. With the correction of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise. If the anti - involution policy is effective in the second half of 2025 and inflation normalizes, the reasonable range of the 10 - year national bond yield is also expected to be adjusted upwards accordingly [6]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2016 Policy - Financial Bond VAT Historical Experience - In March 24, 2016, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice, and the market expected policy - financial bonds to pay VAT. Theoretically, the spread between national bonds and policy - financial bonds should widen. In practice, from March to April 2016, the yields of national bonds and policy - financial bonds both increased significantly, with the policy - financial bond yield rising about 28BP and the national bond yield rising about 10BP. The impact of the event ended when it was clarified on April 29, 2016, that policy - financial bonds were also VAT - exempt [3]. 2018 Local Bond Issuance Rate Historical Experience - In August - September 2018, during the period of concentrated local bond issuance, the policy required local bond issuance rates to be 40BP higher than national bonds. Investors' active bidding for local bonds in the primary market led to the selling of national bonds and policy - financial bonds, causing their yields to rise significantly. Due to the spread constraint between national bonds and local bonds, local bond yields also rose significantly until the peak of local bond issuance ended [3][4]. 2025 Resumption of VAT Collection Impact - Comparing the situation in March - April 2016, there is a possibility that the yields of new and old national bonds will rise together, and the yield of new bonds will rise more. If the primary market of newly - issued national bonds is sluggish and the yield rises significantly, it may repeat the situation where the yields of theoretically beneficial bonds also rise significantly [5].