今夜油价迎喜讯：7月15日国内油价或将大幅下调！ 今晚24时，国内油价将迎来新一轮调整。根据国家发改委价格监测中心数据，本轮计价周期（7月1日至7月10日）三地（布伦特、迪拜、西德克萨斯）国际 原油价格平均变化率为-3.31%，这意味着国内油价或将下调130元/吨，折合每升下调0.11元。这一消息无疑为经历了近期油价上涨的消费者带来了一丝安 慰。 不同于国际油价的波动，国内油价的调整机制体现了其独特的缓冲特性。 有料财经根据国家发改委《石油价格管理办法》、新华社、人民日报等权威媒体报道，以及中国石化、中国石油官网信息、国际金融市场和原油市场行情数 据，并结合资深金融财经专家分析，为您解读这一"国际油价上涨，国内油价下调"的现象。 这看似矛盾的局面，实则源于成品油调价机制的"时间差"。根据规定，国内油价调整参考的是10个工作日国际油价平均值波动率，这使得国内油价对国际市 场瞬时波动具有天然的缓冲能力。本轮调价周期内，尽管布伦特原油均价为69.12美元/桶，迪拜原油均价为68.05美元/桶，较上期分别下降3.8%和4.2%，但 由于上期国际油价平均值较高，最终导致本轮国内油价下调。 值得关注的是，近期国际油价走势 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices in China are expected to rise on July 1, with an estimated increase of 260 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, marking the first "three consecutive increases" of the year [1][3]. Group 1: Price Changes - As of June 27, the reference crude oil change rate was 6.00%, leading to an expected increase of 0.2 yuan for 92 gasoline, 0.22 yuan for 95 gasoline, and 0.22 yuan for 0 diesel [1][3]. - Filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 11 yuan after the price adjustment [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The international oil price showed a trend of rising and then falling during the current pricing cycle, with the domestic reference crude oil change rate decreasing from a high positive value [3]. - Despite a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories and increased demand, the overall trend of the crude oil change rate remains downward, indicating that the conditions for a price increase are still met [3]. Group 3: Profit Margins - As of June 27, the theoretical profit for 92 gasoline was 1,290 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,638 yuan per ton for local refineries, reflecting increases of 179 and 291 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. - The theoretical profit for 0 diesel was 760 yuan per ton for major suppliers and 1,763 yuan per ton for local refineries, with increases of 183 and 84 yuan per ton respectively since June 17 [4]. Group 4: Historical Context - In 2023, there have been 12 rounds of price adjustments for domestic oil, resulting in five increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the pricing pattern for 2023 will shift to six increases, five decreases, and two pauses [4].