1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **L**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PP**: Bearish trend continues [1] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation [1] - **PTA**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Methanol**: Oscillating at the bottom, cautiously bearish [3] - **Urea**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **LNG**: Bullish due to seasonal demand [46] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bullish [8] - **Glass**: Bearish trend continues [7] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish trend continues [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions ease, leading to lower oil prices. There is an oversupply in the off - season, and OPEC+ is in an expansion cycle. Pay attention to US shale oil production and geopolitical developments [1][12]. - **LPG**: Downstream operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate, pressuring LPG prices. The cost side is affected by crude oil trends [1][17]. - **L**: Domestic supply is abundant, downstream demand is weak, and cost support is insufficient. The bearish trend continues [1][22]. - **PP**: Upstream and mid - stream inventories are high, demand is weak, and oil prices may continue to fall. The bearish trend persists [1][26]. - **PVC**: Basis is repaired, but social inventories are high. There is limited room for further price decline due to low valuations [1][30]. - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure eases, downstream demand is relatively good, but cost pressure exists. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [3][32]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream demand is relatively good, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [3][35]. - **Methanol**: Supply pressure is large, demand has improved slightly, and the cost side has weak support. It is in an oscillating bottom - grinding stage [3][39]. - **Urea**: Domestic fundamentals are loose, with high supply and mixed demand. Be wary of downward risks [3][43]. - **LNG**: As the temperature drops, demand for heating increases, but supply is sufficient, and the upward momentum is weakening [46][48]. - **Asphalt**: Affected by South American geopolitics, there is short - term support. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and prices may still have room to decline [8][52]. - **Glass**: Supply has declined, but demand is weak due to the weak real - estate market. The bearish trend continues [7][57]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices dropped last Friday. WTI decreased by 1.59%, Brent by 2.27%, and SC by 0.44% [11] - **Fundamental Logic**: Downstream refined - oil profits are good, but there is an oversupply of crude oil. Geopolitical factors also affect prices [12] - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia's September crude oil exports reached a 7 - month high. OPEC forecasts global crude oil demand growth. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending November 14 [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the SC price range of [440 - 450] [14] LPG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the PG main contract closed at 4363 yuan/ton, down 0.43% [16] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is anchored to the cost of crude oil. Downstream chemical operating rates decline, and inventories accumulate [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the PG price range of [4150 - 4250] [18] L - **Futures and Spot Market**: The L2601 contract closed at 6818 yuan/ton. The basis is - 18 yuan/ton [21] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. Cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially reduce short positions in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the L price range of [6800 - 6950] [22] PP - **Futures and Spot Market**: The PP2601 closed at 6429 yuan/ton. The basis is + 28 yuan/ton [25] - **Fundamental Logic**: The cost side is weak, inventories are high, and demand is weak. Oil prices may continue to fall [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the PP price range of [6350 - 6500] [26] PVC - **Futures and Spot Market**: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton. The basis is - 76 yuan/ton [29] - **Fundamental Logic**: The basis is repaired, anti - dumping is unlikely, and export orders increase. Social inventories are high, but there is low - valuation support [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the V price range of [4400 - 4550] [30] PTA - **Market Data**: PTA spot processing fee is 161.6 yuan/ton. Some new devices are put into operation, and some are under maintenance [31][32] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply - side pressure eases, demand is relatively good, but the cost side is under pressure. There is an inventory - accumulation expectation in December [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long at low prices [32] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 closed at 3901 yuan/ton. The basis is 40 yuan/ton [34] - **Fundamental Logic**: Domestic operating loads decline, overseas loads increase slightly. Demand is relatively good, but there is an inventory - accumulation expectation in November [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the EG price range of [3760 - 3830] [36] Methanol - **Market Data**: The main contract's position is 137.1 million lots. The 11 - month import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [39] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure is large, demand improves slightly, and the cost side has weak support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually close short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract at low prices [39] Urea - **Market Data**: The UR01 closed at 1654 yuan/ton. Daily production is 202,500 tons [42] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply pressure remains, demand is mixed, and inventories are still high. Be wary of downward risks [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices. Pay attention to the UR price range of [1635 - 1665] [45] LNG - **Market Review**: On November 21, the NG main contract closed at 4.667 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.81% [47] - **Fundamental Logic**: As the temperature drops, demand increases, but supply is sufficient. US natural gas inventories decreased [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is likely to rise but has limited upward space. Pay attention to the NG price range of [4.548 - 4.901] [49] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On November 21, the BU main contract closed at 3009 yuan/ton, down 1.60% [51] - **Fundamental Logic**: It is affected by South American geopolitics and crude - oil costs. Supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions and buy call options. Pay attention to the BU price range of [2950 - 3050] [53] Glass - **Futures and Spot Market**: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton. The basis is 77 yuan/ton [56] - **Fundamental Logic**: Supply declines, but demand is weak due to the real - estate market [57] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - to - long term, the bearish trend persists. Look for opportunities to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the FG price range of [1000 - 1050] [57] Soda Ash - **Fundamental Logic**: Demand support weakens, and the bearish trend continues [7][58] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions at low prices. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term [7]