证券研究报告·公司点评报告·饮料乳品 李子园（605337） 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报业绩点评：收入 符合预期，成本红利释放 增持（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1412 | 1415 | 1538 | 1643 | 1746 | | 同比（%） | 0.60 | 0.22 | 8.69 | 6.84 | 6.22 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 236.96 | 223.80 | 253.51 | 279.52 | 305.20 | | 同比（%） | 7.20 | (5.55) | 13.27 | 10.26 | 9.19 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 0.77 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.79 | 22.01 | 19.43 | 17.62 | 16.14 | [Table_Tag] [Table_S ...

事件 2025 年4 月23 日，好想你发布2024 年年报与2025 年一季报，2024 年总营收16.70 亿元（同减3%），归 母净利润亏损0.72 亿元（2023 年亏损0.52 亿元），扣非净利润亏损0.81亿元（2023 年亏损0.59 亿 元）。其中2024Q4 总营收4.92亿元（同减23%），归母净利润亏损0.11 亿元（2023Q4 亏损0.11 亿 元），扣非净利润亏损0.17 亿元（2023Q4 亏损0.04亿元）。2025Q1 总营收4.13 亿元（同减16%），归 母净利润0.40 亿元（同增216%），扣非净利润0.29 亿元（同增101%）。截至2024 年12 月31 日，公司 现金红利派发总额6.11 亿元，分红额度创历史新高。 产品结构优化，电商渠道费用管控加强 产品方面，2024 年红枣制品/健康锁鲜类/其他类产品营收分别为12.22/0.69/3.20 亿元，分别同 比-7%/-20%/+16%，锁鲜类产品下降幅度较大主要系旧品维护力度下降，后续公司重视冻干锁鲜产品， 进一步推进产能释放；其他类产品大幅增长，主要系滋补类产品如红枣山药、红枣八宝茶等新品开发所 致。公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company "好想你" has shown significant improvement in profitability, with a notable recovery in its financial performance driven by cost advantages and effective expense management [2][3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, total revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 72 million yuan compared to a loss of 52 million yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 413 million yuan, a decrease of 16%, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 216% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 22.62% and 33.97%, respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability as high-cost raw materials have been consumed [3]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively reduced sales and management expense ratios, leading to improved net profit margins of -4.53% in 2024 and 9.62% in Q1 2025 [3]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from lower raw material costs and reduced depreciation expenses, which will enhance profitability in the coming years [4]. Product and Channel Strategy - The revenue from red date products, health preservation products, and other categories in 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, 69 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with a focus on developing differentiated and technologically advanced products [3]. - Offline channel revenue increased by 3% to 1.14 billion yuan, driven by new retail channels, while e-commerce revenue decreased by 16% to 475 million yuan due to channel relocation [3]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.02 yuan, 0.17 yuan, and 0.27 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 502, 70, and 44 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in net profit, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by the consumption of high-cost raw materials and effective cost control measures [2][3] - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure and enhancing cost management in e-commerce channels, which is expected to lead to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 72 million yuan compared to a loss of 52 million yuan in 2023. The first quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 413 million yuan, a decrease of 16%, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, an increase of 216% [1][9] - The company distributed a total cash dividend of 611 million yuan as of December 31, 2024, marking a historical high in dividend payout [1] Profitability and Cost Management - Gross margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 22.62% and 33.97%, respectively, with a recovery in profitability expected as high-cost raw materials are depleted and new procurement costs are at historical lows [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points in 2024 and 1 percentage point in Q1 2025, while the management expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating effective cost control [2] Product and Channel Strategy - Revenue from red date products, health preservation products, and other categories in 2024 was 1.22 billion yuan, 69 million yuan, and 320 million yuan, respectively, with a focus on developing differentiated and technologically advanced red date products [3] - Offline channel revenue increased by 3% to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024, driven by new retail channels, while e-commerce revenue decreased by 16% to 475 million yuan due to channel relocation impacts [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see continued improvement in profitability due to lower raw material costs and the expiration of certain depreciation expenses, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.02, 0.17, and 0.27 yuan, respectively [9]