1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The bond market may see a downward trend in the fourth quarter, but a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. The market has a foundation for a slow decline, with more rational pricing and stable allocation demand. The recent tariff shock is a "one - time" pricing behavior, and if the tariff policy fluctuates, long - duration assets may face callback risks. It's advisable to track the arrangement of the Sino - US summit to judge the implementation possibility of the tariff policy [2][90]. - The tariff and technology control may have limited impact on the domestic capital market. The potential "cancellation" or "reduction" of tariffs makes it difficult to immediately price the long - term impact on the fundamentals. The market is unlikely to repeat the extreme situation in April [4]. - In terms of investment strategy, the portfolio duration should be set at a medium - to - long level. High - quality coupon assets are recommended as the bottom - position, and opportunities in 2 - year AA -/AA - grade credit bonds and 10 - year local bonds can be explored. For trading, medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds with large previous declines can be focused on [2][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Matters - In October, the central bank did not conduct treasury bond trading operations [7]. - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3900 points for the first time in 10 years, which may signal a slow - bull market in the equity market and put upward pressure on the bond market [8]. - The fourth - quarter treasury bond issuance plan was announced. Treasury bond issuance, especially ultra - long - term bonds, may enter a seasonal off - peak. The 30 - year ultra - long - term special treasury bond will no longer be renewed, and 2500002 has an advantage in becoming the active bond [11]. - On October 10, 2025, Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software, which will take effect on November 1, 2025, increasing the uncertainty of the Sino - US summit [15]. 3.2 Money Market - From October 9 to 11, 2025, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase investment was - 15263 billion yuan. The liquidity in the inter - bank market was loose after the cross - quarter. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) was positive, and the yields of NCDs declined [16][17]. - In the primary market, the total issuance scale of NCDs last week was 215.97 billion yuan, with a net financing of 81.02 billion yuan. The issuance scale of city commercial banks was the largest, but the net financing was negative. The issuance interest rates of NCDs increased compared with the previous week [26][28][30]. - In the secondary market, the yields of NCDs of all maturities decreased. The yield of AAA - rated 1 - month NCDs decreased by 17.96BP to 1.45%, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 56.98% quantile [32]. 3.3 Bond Market - In the first week after the holiday, treasury bonds were the main source of interest - rate bond supply. The total issuance of interest - rate bonds was 14, with an actual issuance of 286.864 billion yuan and a net financing of 215.998 billion yuan [34][41]. - In the primary market, from January to October, the net financing of local government bonds was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of October 11, 2025, the cumulative net financing of treasury bonds was about 5.58 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 6.15 trillion yuan [34]. - In the secondary market, from Thursday to Friday last week, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread was compressed. After Trump announced the tariff increase, the bond market declined significantly. The liquidity premium of active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year treasury bonds and 10 - year policy - bank bonds changed differently [34][46]. - The term spread of 10 - 1 - year treasury bonds was compressed to 47.19BP, and the 30 - 1 - year term spread widened. The long - and ultra - long - term spreads between local and national bonds changed differently [57][59]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase in the first week after the holiday was 7.53 trillion yuan, and the leveraged trading scale recovered after the holiday [62][68]. - In the cash - bond market, state - owned banks weakened their bond - buying, rural commercial banks significantly increased their purchases, especially of long - term local bonds and 5 - 10 - year policy - bank bonds. Securities firms and funds were also important buyers, while insurance companies were net sellers, especially of long - term treasury bonds [62][70]. - The current average cost of major trading players adding 10 - year treasury bonds is around 1.87% [74]. - Considering capital occupation and tax costs, commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds [82]. 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 0.10% compared with before the holiday, the wire rod futures price was flat, the cathode copper futures price increased by 3.39%, the cement price index increased by 0.45%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.66%. The CCFI index was flat, and the BDI index decreased by 9.89% [85]. - In terms of food prices, the pork wholesale price decreased by 3.47%, and the vegetable wholesale price decreased by 2.99%. The settlement prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.15% and 1.38% respectively. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.11 [85].