特朗普的补贴支票，填不上中国买家留下的市场黑洞。 "我们在关税上赚了这么多钱，所以要拿出一小部分来帮助我们的农民。"10月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣称， 他 与此同时，美国大豆农民克里斯·斯旺森站在他在爱荷华州西北部的7000英亩农场里，面对即将丰收的大豆，心中却充满忧 虑。他预计大豆售价约为每蒲式耳9.5美元，"这个价格实在太低了"。 斯旺森的困境正是美国豆农当下的真实写照。 2025年美国大豆迎来了一个罕见的丰收季，但农民们的情绪却跌至谷底。 《华尔街日报》报道， 。这一消息在美国农业界引发震动。 去年前9个月，中国买家已经订下美国大豆近四成的出口量。中国作为全球最大大豆买家，去年从美国进口了价值 的大豆，占美国大豆出口总值的半数以上。 如今，这个数字直接"归零"。 美国农业部数据显示，截至9月18日，新销售季节已开始数周，但中国买家尚未预订一艘美国大豆货轮，这是 。 。 面对农业州的压力，特朗普提出了一项援助计划——考虑向美国农民提供 的补贴。 这些资金主要来自美国对其他国家加征关税所带来的收入。白宫发言人安娜·凯利表示，"总统已明确表示，有意动用关税 收入为农业领域提供支持"。 但这真的是解决 ...

Economic Outlook - The biggest uncertainty facing China's economy this year is the extreme pressure from external tariffs, but the first half of the year showed three positive aspects: actual GDP growth of 5.3%, new achievements in technology and consumption, and proactive government measures to mitigate potential shocks [2] - The growth in the first half was primarily driven by resilient external demand, contributing an additional 1 percentage point to GDP growth, while consumption and investment saw declines of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively [3] - The second half of the year will depend on whether domestic demand can effectively take over, as investment, consumption, and external demand all showed signs of slowing down in August [4] Consumer Behavior and Debt Levels - The decline in household leverage is attributed to multiple factors, including structural changes in consumption behavior due to the pandemic, uncertainties in Sino-US trade relations, and fluctuations in asset prices affecting borrowing demand [5] - The ongoing deleveraging process among households poses challenges for traditional methods of stimulating consumption through increased leverage [5] Policy Recommendations - There is a need for stronger coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on enhancing the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [7] - Continuous monitoring of domestic and international economic conditions is essential to ensure timely policy responses, avoiding delays that could exacerbate economic downturns [7] - Policies should be carefully evaluated for consistency, especially those that may restrict consumption, to avoid counterproductive effects on economic stimulus [8] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has shown resilience against the USD despite external pressures, with a cumulative appreciation of about 1% as of September 19, 2025, attributed to a combination of internal and external factors [10] - The RMB's exchange rate is influenced by various factors, including the depreciation of the USD and improvements in China's economic fundamentals, suggesting that the RMB is not significantly overvalued [11][12] - The ongoing trade surplus indicates upward pressure on the RMB, while domestic economic conditions suggest that it may be slightly overvalued relative to internal equilibrium levels [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Despite a net outflow of RMB in cross-border transactions, the overall market does not indicate significant concerns regarding the RMB's valuation [13] - Factors that could positively influence the RMB include potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and progress in Sino-US trade negotiations [14] - However, uncertainties remain regarding the pace of Fed rate cuts, future trade negotiations, and the impact of domestic economic conditions on consumer demand [14][16]

9月13日晚间，中国商务部举行例行记者会，发言人针对美国政府最新将多家中国企业和机构列入出口 管制实体清单的举动作出严正回应。发言人明确指出，中方对此表示强烈不满和坚决反对，认为美方这 一行为是典型的单边主义和经济霸凌行径，是对国际经贸规则的严重破坏。值得注意的是，就在这一制 裁措施出台的前一天，中美双方刚刚商定将于9月14日在西班牙马德里举行新一轮经贸高级别磋商。美 方选择在会谈前夕突然实施制裁，其背后动机和谈判诚意都值得商榷。分析人士认为，这很可能是美方 在谈判筹码不足的情况下，又一次祭出其惯用的极限施压策略，试图通过制造人为压力来获取谈判优 势。 然而，美方这种以压促谈的做法不仅无助于营造建设性的对话氛围，反而暴露出其在对外经济政策上的 严重短视。从具体表现来看，美方一方面在公开场合表示希望通过对话协商解决双边经贸分歧，另一方 面却在实际行动中不断采取挑衅性措施，这种说一套做一套的双面手法，不仅严重损害了其作为谈判方 的信誉度，更可能进一步破坏两国之间本已脆弱的战略互信。回顾近年来中美经贸摩擦的历史轨迹不难 发现，美方类似的施压行为往往会导致谈判进程更加复杂化，甚至引发更激烈的反制措施，最终结果往 往是 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between former US President Trump and Russian President Putin on August 15 in Alaska is highly anticipated, with US Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting that failure to achieve expected outcomes may lead to increased oil sanctions against Russia, which could pose greater risks and pressures on China [1] - Bessent expressed frustration over European representatives' silence when he proposed imposing 200% tariffs on Chinese goods in response to purchasing Russian oil, indicating their hesitation and the complexity of international relations [3][5] - The current economic status of China is significantly stronger than in previous decades, with a GDP of 126.06 trillion yuan in 2023 and a stable growth rate of 5.2%, making any trade friction with China a cautious consideration for other nations [8] Group 2 - The trade relationship between China and European countries is crucial, exemplified by Germany's trade volume with China reaching 245.4 billion euros in 2023, highlighting the potential economic repercussions of blindly following US proposals for high tariffs on Chinese goods [10] - China's advancements in technology, particularly in 5G, AI, and clean energy, have fostered important collaborations with European companies, indicating that sanctions could disrupt technological progress in Europe [12] - European nations recognize the importance of maintaining good relations with China for their long-term development, understanding that attempts to isolate or suppress China could lead to self-harm [14] Group 3 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have not resolved as Trump anticipated, with his decision to suspend a 24% tariff on China reflecting his internal struggles and the complexities of the trade war [16] - Following the third round of US-China trade talks, both sides agreed to extend the suspension of certain tariffs, showcasing China's willingness to ease tensions and return to a cooperative relationship [16] - Bessent's evolving perspective on China, now referring to it as a "great nation," illustrates the respect China has gained in the economic struggle, emphasizing the need for dialogue and cooperation over confrontation [19]

8月12日，全球金融市场还未完全苏醒，一则突如其来的中美联合声明，瞬间点燃了全球舆论的热情。 13个字——"再次暂停实施24%关税90天"，不仅成为 当日财经新闻的头条，也让世界各国投资者、企业家、政策制定者都松了一口气。 摩根大通、彭博、IMF等权威机构第一时间对这一事件进行了深度解读。全球供应链、跨国贸易、国际资本市场的反应极为迅速，亚洲主要股指、美股期 指、美元指数都在声明发布后数小时内出现明显波动。 关税暂停，全球市场情绪剧烈波动 美国商务部数据显示，仅上半年，中美双边贸易总额已达2.6万亿美元。全球供应链对中美经贸关系的依赖程度远超想象。2024年全球供应链弹性指数报告 指出，中国出口商品中近四成最终流向美国，而美国农产品出口的42%也销往中国。市场对关税政策变动极为敏感。 8月12日，亚洲主要股指集体高开，日经225指数上涨1.8%，恒生指数盘中一度大涨2.5%，标普500期指也跳涨近1.7%。国际原油期货、黄金价格同样短线剧 烈波动。 法国巴黎银行最新发布的全球投资者信心调查显示，超六成机构投资者将中美经贸摩擦视为下半年全球经济最大不确定性来源。关税暂停决定落地，风险偏 好短暂回升，避险资金回流 ...

Core Points - The ongoing economic and geopolitical rivalry between the US and China has created significant uncertainty in the global economy, affecting ordinary citizens with high prices and economic instability [1] - The trade conflict is rooted in long-standing tensions that escalated after the Trump administration adopted a comprehensive strategy to pressure China, starting from January 2025 [2] - The US has implemented a series of tariffs and trade restrictions on Chinese goods, significantly increasing the total tariff level and impacting Chinese exports [2] - In response to US actions, China has enacted strong countermeasures, including export bans on critical materials and increased tariffs on US goods, which have disrupted US supply chains [6][10] - The trade war has led to a rise in effective tariff rates in the US, reaching the highest level since 1934, and has resulted in market volatility and negative employment data [12] Trade Policies - The US imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports in March 2025, which escalated to a total tariff level of 54% by April 2025, affecting various sectors from agriculture to electronics [2] - The US further increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 104% and initiated investigations into Chinese maritime logistics and shipbuilding, targeting key industries [2] - China's countermeasures included banning exports of gallium, germanium, and other critical materials to the US, which are essential for various advanced technologies [6] Geopolitical Dynamics - The US has sought to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China's influence, criticizing China's actions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea [5] - Despite tensions, there remains potential for cooperation between the US and China in areas such as climate change and technology exchange, depending on the US's approach [14] Economic Impact - The trade war has resulted in an additional tax burden of approximately $1,300 per American household due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2] - The escalation of tariffs has led to increased costs for US consumers and businesses, contributing to economic instability and market downturns [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

Group 1: US-China Economic Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism will take place in London from June 8 to June 13, with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng attending at the invitation of the UK government [2] - US President Trump announced that key officials, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Ross, will meet with Chinese representatives on June 9 to discuss trade agreements [2] - The talks are expected to address the expansion of rare earth exports from China, which is a significant point of interest for the US [2][3] Group 2: US Army Parade - A large-scale parade will be held in Washington on June 14 to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army, coinciding with President Trump's 79th birthday [4] - The event is estimated to cost between $25 million and $45 million and will involve 50 aircraft, 150 military vehicles, and 6,600 soldiers [4] - The parade will include various celebrations such as fireworks, military displays, and performances, aiming to showcase the history of the Army from the Revolutionary War to the present [4] Group 3: G7 Summit - The G7 summit will take place in Canada from June 15 to June 17, with leaders from G7 countries expected to attend, along with invited leaders from South Africa, Ukraine, and Australia [6][7] - US tariffs are anticipated to be a major topic of discussion during the summit, with ongoing negotiations between the US and Japan regarding tariffs [6] - Indian Prime Minister Modi confirmed his attendance at the G7 summit, emphasizing the strong ties between India and Canada [7]

Core Points - The phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump on June 5 was a significant and constructive exchange aimed at correcting the course of U.S.-China relations, especially in the context of ongoing trade tensions [1][2] - Both leaders emphasized the importance of cooperation and agreed to continue implementing the consensus reached during the Geneva economic talks, with plans for further discussions [1][2][3] Economic and Trade Relations - The main focus of the call was on trade, with both sides expressing positive evaluations of the Geneva economic talks, which had yielded substantial results [2][3] - Trump indicated that the two countries had reached agreements on complex issues related to trade, including rare earths and magnets, and that both sides would meet soon to discuss these matters further [3][5] - The call is seen as a means to temporarily halt the escalation of trade tensions, with experts noting that it avoided a derailment of previous trade negotiations [2][3] Diplomatic Engagement - The dialogue reflects a broader willingness from both sides to maintain communication and cooperation across various fields, including diplomacy, economy, military, and law enforcement [3][4] - The invitation for Trump to visit China was highlighted as a potential milestone in U.S.-China relations, contingent on both sides creating a conducive atmosphere for such a meeting [4][5] Recent Developments - Recent actions by the U.S. government, including restrictions on Chinese students and technology exports, have raised concerns, but Trump expressed a welcoming stance towards Chinese students studying in the U.S. [5][6] - The ongoing interactions at various levels, including high-level dialogues and meetings, demonstrate China's proactive approach to stabilizing relations with the U.S. [6][7]

Group 1 - The recent U.S.-China trade discussions have seen both sides maintaining communication on economic concerns, particularly regarding U.S. export control measures in the semiconductor sector [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued a directive to halt supplies to Chinese clients from several EDA software companies, which are crucial for chip design, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariffs imposed through executive orders were overreaching, highlighting the ongoing legal and economic ramifications of the trade war [3] Group 2 - The upcoming G20 summit in November may serve as a critical juncture for U.S.-China relations, with potential discussions aimed at resolving trade issues [3] - There is a growing sentiment among U.S. business leaders that the current tariff policies are unpopular, with calls for a return to cooperative and mutually beneficial trade practices [5] - China's proactive diplomatic efforts with various global regions, including Latin America and the EU, suggest a strategic shift in response to U.S. trade policies, enhancing its international economic relationships [7]