Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade policies, with a notable increase in silver prices driven by tariff discussions and market reactions to U.S. economic policies [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 26, the closing price for silver futures was 22,572 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.47% [1] - Trading volume reached 357,610 contracts, while open interest stood at 173,529 contracts, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - U.S. Trade Representative Tai announced that the U.S. will issue a notice regarding a 15% tariff, which continues to influence market sentiment [1] - President Trump, in his State of the Union address, expressed regret over a Supreme Court ruling and confirmed that tariffs will remain in place without Congressional action [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran's missile development, are contributing to market volatility and investor caution [1] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Analysts note that the tariff discussions are pushing silver prices higher, while the recent recovery in U.S. tech stocks is also impacting market dynamics [1] - The premium for silver in the Shanghai market has expanded to approximately 2,300 yuan per kilogram, reflecting changing market conditions [1] - Overall, the silver market is expected to remain volatile, with suggested trading ranges between 21,900 and 23,600 yuan per kilogram [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif leads a delegation to Geneva for the third round of indirect talks with the U.S. on nuclear agreements, scheduled for the 26th [1] - The U.S. and Iran have made progress in negotiations, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions despite existing differences [1] - The U.S. is reportedly considering a "limited military strike" against Iran, as President Trump acknowledges the need for a more stringent nuclear agreement without sunset clauses [1] Trade and Tariff Developments - Following the Supreme Court's overturning of most global tariffs, President Trump is looking to strengthen existing tariffs and potentially increase rates on previously agreed-upon tariffs [2] - The EU estimates that Trump's new tariff plan could impose higher tariffs on €4.2 billion (approximately $5 billion) worth of EU exports to the U.S., exceeding the 15% cap set by existing trade agreements [2] - European exports, including cheese, butter, certain agricultural products, and various plastics, textiles, and chemicals, may face tariffs higher than 15% under the new mechanism [2] Technical Analysis - Gold (XAUUSD) prices reached a high of 5215.0 before retreating, closing around 5185.0, indicating a bullish trend as prices remain above the 60 and 100 moving averages [5] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to buy on dips near the support level of 5135.0, with targets set at 5165.0 and 5215.0 [6] - Silver (XAGUSD) prices surged to 90.95 before pulling back, currently stabilizing around 90.0, indicating a bullish trend as prices remain above the 100 moving average [8] - Suggested trading strategy for silver includes buying near the support level of 84.55, with targets at 85.75 and 90.95 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are volatile. The rebound of US tech stocks and CME's technical glitches have led to a retracement in the increase of gold prices. The tail - end impact of the tariff storm continues to push up gold prices, and the safe - haven sentiment still has an upward push, but the reaction is limited. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 1.9 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver prices also fluctuate. The rebound of US tech stocks and CME's technical glitches have caused silver prices to rise and then fall. The safe - haven sentiment has cooled down, but the tariff storm still has an impact, and silver prices are affected by the rebound of tech stocks [5]. - For both gold and silver, the approaching mid - term elections, continuous turmoil, and ongoing easing provide macro - level support [9][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1前日回顾 - **Gold**: US stock tech stocks rebounded, CME had a technical glitch, and gold prices fluctuated. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased (10 - year yield rose 2.10 basis points to 4.052%), the US dollar index fell 0.24% to 97.66, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.14% to $5183.70 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stock tech stocks rebounded, CME had a technical glitch, and silver prices rose and then fell. US and European stock markets rose, US bond yields increased, the US dollar index fell, and the offshore RMB appreciated. COMEX silver futures rose 1.95% to $89.21 per ounce [5]. 3.2每日提示 - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.36, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts is 105,072 kilograms and remains unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 222, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts is 355,830 kilograms, an increase of 5,951 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases, which is bullish [5]. 3.3今日关注 - Time TBD: The Bank of Korea releases an interest rate decision statement, and the Bank of Japan's Financial Markets Bureau holds a "market operation meeting" - 09:30: Bank of Japan审议委员高田创 gives a speech - 15:00: China's Ministry of Commerce holds the 3rd regular press conference in February - 16:30: ECB President Lagarde speaks in the European Parliament - 17:00: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speak, and ECB Governing Council member Primoz Dolenc talks about stablecoins - 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 21, Canada's current account in the fourth quarter - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US Senate Banking Committee on (financial) regulation [14] 3.4基本面数据 - **Gold**: The approaching mid - term elections, continuous turmoil, and ongoing easing provide macro - level support. The tail - end impact of Trump's tariff storm continues to push up gold prices, and the safe - haven sentiment still has an upward push, but the reaction is limited [4][9]. - **Silver**: Global turmoil, the tense situation between the US and Iran, the significant "shadow Fed", the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, the expectation of easing, the sharp decline of the US dollar, and Trump's tariff storm all support silver prices. However, the marginal impact of Trump's "last - minute escape" strategy fades, there are large internal differences in the Fed, and the Fed may start to suspend interest rate cuts. The optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the invalidation of reciprocal tariffs are negative factors [12][13]. 3.5持仓数据 - **Gold**: On February 25, 2026, the long position volume was 158,755, an increase of 7,821 (5.18%) compared with February 24. The short position volume was 30,998, an increase of 442 (1.45%). The net position was 127,757, an increase of 7,379 (6.13%) [36]. - **Silver**: On February 25, 2026, the long position volume was 276,304, an increase of 1,203 (0.44%) compared with February 24. The short position volume was 200,044, a decrease of 1,687 (- 0.84%). The net position was 76,260, an increase of 2,890 (3.94%) [38].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court's recent ruling has overturned most tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, leading to a new 15% global tariff on all goods imported to the U.S. for a maximum of 150 days, creating renewed tension among global trade partners, including India [1] Group 1 - The Indian Union Bank (UBI) report indicates that India is in a delicate "middle ground" regarding the tariff situation, having avoided the harshest reciprocal measures due to the absence of a comprehensive trade agreement with the U.S. [3] - India's temporary advantage may be short-lived, as the implementation of the global tariff under Section 122 could significantly increase tariff risks for India, eroding previously gained advantages from negotiations [3] - Trump's actions are characterized as "extreme pressure," utilizing the power vacuum created by the Supreme Court ruling to impose a short-term high tariff while simultaneously pressuring Congress for long-term tax authority [3] Group 2 - For India, the immediate concern is the 15% tariff cost, but there is also anxiety about whether Congress will approve an extension after the initial 150 days, which would eliminate India's cost advantage in manufacturing exports to the U.S. [3]

Core Points - The article discusses President Trump's lengthy State of the Union address, where he promotes his economic plans ahead of the midterm elections, amidst a politically polarized environment [1][4] Group 1: Tariff Issues - Trump expressed disappointment over the Supreme Court's decision to overturn his emergency tariff plan, stating he would utilize other legal authorities to implement new tariffs, which he believes will ultimately be more sustainable [1] - He suggested that tariffs paid by foreign entities could replace the modern income tax system over time [1] Group 2: Political Attacks - Trump took the opportunity to attack Democratic politicians and undocumented immigrants, highlighting a stark divide between Republican applause and Democratic discontent during his speech [4] - He announced a "war on fraud" led by Vice President JD Vance and called for Congress to pass voter ID verification measures, which may disadvantage low-income and married female voters [4] Group 3: Welfare Plans - Trump promoted his healthcare plan, emphasizing direct payments to individuals instead of insurance companies, although lacking specific details [5] - He introduced the "TrumpRx" prescription drug plan aimed at providing discounts for uninsured individuals and announced a matching fund of $1,000 for Americans without 401(k) plans, which resembles a previously passed retirement reform [5] Group 4: Achievements Summary - Trump highlighted his administration's achievements, including tax cuts for tips and overtime pay, the establishment of "Trump" accounts for newborns, decreasing inflation rates, and stock market highs [6] - He claimed credit for military actions against Iran and Venezuela, peace agreements in Gaza and the India-Pakistan border, and efforts to secure the U.S.-Mexico border against immigration and illegal drugs [6] Group 5: National Pride - Trump utilized themes of patriotism and nationalism, honoring American heroes and veterans throughout his speech, including a 99-year-old WWII veteran and various military personnel [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold, the panic sentiment cooled down, causing the gold price to rise and then fall. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, and European three major stock indexes closed with mixed results. The US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield falling 0.38 basis points to 4.031%. The US dollar index rose 0.17% to 97.90, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 6.8798. The COMEX gold futures fell 1.25% to $5160.50 per ounce. The risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, and the market reaction to the tariff storm was weak, so the gold price fluctuated [4]. - For silver, the US Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariff was illegal, and Trump's newly imposed tariff rate increased from 10% to 15%, causing the silver price to rise sharply again. The US three major stock indexes fluctuated and closed down, and European three major stock indexes fluctuated and closed up. The US bond yields fluctuated and closed down, with the 10 - year US bond yield falling 8.2 basis points to 4.031%. The US dollar index rose 0.72% to 97.74, and the offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the US dollar to 6.8894. The COMEX silver futures rose 14.4% to $88 per ounce. Trump's tariff shock hit again, and the silver price rose sharply again. The premium of Shanghai silver expanded to 2000 yuan per kilogram before the festival, and it was expected to make up for a 2200 - yuan increase. The silver price was strong but with high volatility, so cautious operation was needed [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - Gold: The panic sentiment cooled down, and the gold price rose and then fell. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes closed with mixed results, US bond yields were mixed, the US dollar index rose, and the COMEX gold futures fell 1.25% to $5160.50 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The US Supreme Court's ruling on the tariff and Trump's tariff increase led to a sharp rise in the silver price. The US three major stock indexes fell, European three major stock indexes rose, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the COMEX silver futures rose 14.4% to $88 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 4.02, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the inventory of gold futures warehouse receipts was 105072 kilograms, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net long position decreased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 995, with the spot at a discount to the futures (bearish); the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts was 353559 kilograms, an increase of 3926 kilograms (bullish); the 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average (bearish); the main net long position decreased (bullish) [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Time TBD: US President Trump will deliver the State of the Union address. - 15:00: Germany's Q4 unadjusted GDP final value, Thailand's central bank will announce the interest rate decision. - 16:40: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 18:00: Eurozone's January CPI final value, ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujcic will speak in the European Parliament. - 23:40: Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak. - Next day 00:00: Kansas City Fed President Schmid will talk about FOMC monetary policy and the economy. - Next day 02:20: St. Louis Fed President Musalem will talk about the Fed's role [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Gold: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and continuous easing, and there is still support at the macro level. The risk points include Trump's impact, improvement in US economic expectations, significant interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and black swan events [11][14]. - Silver: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, the influence of the shadow Fed, the possible determination of the new Fed chairman, rising expectations of easing, a sharp decline in the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff storm, support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory. Negative factors include the fading marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences in the Fed, the Fed's possible suspension of interest rate cuts, the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the invalidation of reciprocal tariffs [14][15]. 3.5 Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 3.46% to 150,934 on February 24, 2026, compared with the previous day; the short - position volume decreased by 0.09% to 30,556; the net position decreased by 4.28% to 120,378 [32]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.28% to 275,101 on February 24, 2026, compared with the previous day; the short - position volume increased by 2.35% to 201,731; the net position decreased by 18.76% to 73,370 [34].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Trump's inauguration has brought extreme global turmoil, shifting inflation expectations to recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recent Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, along with liquidity concerns, still provide upward momentum for gold prices, but the momentum is limited [9]. - Silver: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. Due to concerns about tariffs, silver prices are more likely to see an expanded increase. However, the actual shortage may be limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [12]. Section Summaries 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Due to strong demand for Japanese bond auctions and the stabilization of the cryptocurrency market, liquidity concerns eased, and gold prices fell slightly. COMEX gold futures dropped 0.84% to $4238.70 per ounce. The US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.3. The basis was - 5.21, indicating a spot discount to futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 450 kilograms to 90,873 kilograms [4]. - Silver: With the easing of liquidity concerns and the cooling of the supply - shortage game, silver prices fluctuated significantly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.01% to $59.15 per ounce. The basis was + 2, indicating a spot premium to futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 20,930 kilograms to 594,632 kilograms [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: Today, focus on the US November ADP employment figures, PMI data from China, the US, and the EU, and speeches by the ECB president and officials. Trump's hint at the Fed chairmanship and other factors have stabilized risk appetite, causing gold prices to fall slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to about - 4.7 yuan per gram, showing cautious sentiment in the domestic market [4]. - Silver: The spot - futures structure of Shanghai silver is gradually being repaired, and the supply - shortage game has cooled. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 420 yuan per gram, indicating strong domestic sentiment. Although there is still upward momentum for silver prices, investors are advised to be cautious when chasing high prices [5]. 3. Today's Focus - 09:00: Fed Chair Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone November CPI preliminary value and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on financial regulatory supervision - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased [4]. - Silver: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position has decreased [5]. 5. Position Data - Gold: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.07% to 175,022, the short position decreased by 1.70% to 60,292, and the net long position increased by 0.81% to 114,730 [30]. - Silver: As of December 2, 2025, the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4.24% to 394,144, the short position decreased by 3.60% to 303,086, and the net long position decreased by 6.31% to 91,058 [32]. - SPDR Gold ETF: The ETF position has been increasing in a fluctuating manner [34]. - Silver ETF: The ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [37]. - Gold Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly, while COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level [38][39]. - Silver Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper prices fluctuated higher, while domestic prices rose slightly, with a continued loss in domestic refined copper spot imports. Due to the US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets, the copper market is cautious. Copper prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - economic developments and the market's reaction to Fed rate cuts [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated weakly, while electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina has weak support at the bottom and is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum is driven by both macro and micro factors, with strong overall momentum, and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum remains tight, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient than electrolytic aluminum [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel fell, while SHFE nickel rose slightly. The pressure on primary nickel inventory is increasing, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and macro - economic disturbances [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper prices rose, and domestic prices increased slightly. The US government shutdown, uncertainties in Sino - US trade, and potential risks in overseas financial markets make the copper market cautious. Copper prices will likely oscillate within the current range in the short term. LME inventory decreased by 300 tons to 136,850 tons, Comex inventory increased by 521 tons to 314,341 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and BC copper remained at 12,965 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina oscillated weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,814 yuan/ton, a 0.32% decline. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy showed a strong trend. Alumina's supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Electrolytic aluminum has strong driving forces and can be bought on dips. Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and aluminum alloy is relatively more resilient [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel fell 0.46% to 15,140 US dollars/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.03% to 121,190 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 402 tons to 250,878 tons, and domestic SHFE warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain is stable, and the new energy industry chain has a tight raw material supply. Primary nickel inventory pressure is increasing, and nickel prices will fluctuate widely [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 770 yuan/ton to 84,935 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 15 yuan/ton. SHFE copper warrants decreased by 1,125 tons to 36,553 tons, and social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.5 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead remained unchanged at 17,080 yuan/ton. SHFE lead warrants decreased by 3,156 tons to 24,977 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 1,785 tons to 41,701 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum in Wuxi decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20,960 yuan/ton, and the price in Nanhai increased by 20 yuan/ton to 20,890 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum warrants decreased by 2,127 tons to 67,270 tons, and social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.2 million tons to 62.5 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 123,350 yuan/ton. SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 73 tons to 26,953 tons, and social inventory increased by 4,014 tons to 47,708 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 21,990 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.73 million tons to 16.29 million tons [6]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 0.1% to 280,940 yuan/ton. SHFE tin inventory decreased by 188 tons to 5,691 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides historical data charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: It shows historical data charts of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][20][21]. - **LME Inventory**: Presents historical data charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Displays historical data charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Provides historical data charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Includes historical data charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][47]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with extensive experience in commodity research. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [50][51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Focus on Trump's new tariff threats and potential US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October, and a shutdown over 30 days could raise recession risks [6]. - Domestic: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress and effectiveness of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool are worth following [6]. - Asset Allocation: There's a risk of increased volatility in global major assets this week. Maintain a strategic allocation of precious metals like gold, be cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Pay attention to Trump's new tariff threats and US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting, and a long - term shutdown may increase recession risks [6]. - Domestic Macro: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool is worth following [6]. - Asset View: Global major assets may have increased volatility this week. Suggest maintaining a strategic allocation of precious metals, being cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and holding the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by tech events, the growth style is active. May experience a volatile rise with the concern of overcrowded small - cap funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Market turnover slightly declined. Expected to be volatile due to concerns about insufficient option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market remains weak. Expected to be volatile with concerns about policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. Expected to rise with volatility, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there's no upward drive. Expected to be volatile, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: There's pressure on the fundamentals, and cost support is weakening. Expected to be volatile, focusing on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - Iron Ore: Frequent macro disturbances have weakened market sentiment. Expected to be volatile, focusing on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and policy [7]. - Coke: The fundamentals have little change, and the market is volatile. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Most auctions showed price increases, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was briefly affected. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have caused a short - term decline in copper prices. Expected to be volatile, with concerns about supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policy [7]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and aluminum prices are high and volatile. Expected to rise with volatility, with concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under pressure. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and low valuations are hard to change. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on cost factors [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and high inventory, prices are falling. Expected to be volatile, focusing on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Expected to continue to be volatile, waiting for further information. Focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The market remains in low - level volatility. Focus on Sino - US trade relations [9]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment is boosted by government - guided purchases, and the price rebounds. Expected to be volatile, focusing on demand, macro factors, and weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products, including "oscillating" for some and "oscillating weakly" for others [5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various agricultural products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products facing downward pressure while others are in a state of oscillation. The macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and policy factors all have an impact on the market [1][5][6][7][8][9][11][13][14][15][17][18][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook for Each Product - **Oils and Fats**: Concerned about the effectiveness of the lower technical support. Due to the pessimistic outlook for US soybean export demand, the market is in an oscillating and downward - adjusting state. Palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory, while domestic soybean oil inventory may peak and decline, and rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the oils and fats market may continue to oscillate and consolidate [5] - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to oscillate at a low level. US soybeans are facing challenges in exports, and the domestic supply pressure is large in the short - term, but the demand may increase steadily in the long - term [5][6] - **Corn/Starch**: With the new grain selling pressure coming, the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. In the short - term, the market needs to deal with the new grain listing pressure, and in the long - term, it may show a pattern of short - term bearish and long - term bullish [6][7] - **Pigs**: The planned slaughter volume in October increases, and the pig price is under pressure. In the short - term, the supply pressure increases, and in the long - term, if the capacity reduction is implemented, the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [8] - **Natural Rubber**: The negative factors have not been realized, but the market sentiment remains weak. The futures price may have over - declined due to sentiment. NR may show a relatively strong performance in the near - term. In the short - term, it can be considered from a long - bias perspective of oversold rebound, but the increase range is limited [1][9][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The raw material has weakened significantly, and the futures price has dropped sharply. The high production volume and high inventory are the main pressures, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton price has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. Based on the expected increase in production, the cotton price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - on - rebound strategy [14] - **Sugar**: Both domestic and international sugar prices have weakened. In the medium - and long - term, the sugar market is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to the expected increase in global supply [15] - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may lead to intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The high supply and the issue of birch pulp warehouse receipts are the main downward drivers [17] - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates. The market supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and the price may decline slightly after the festival [18] - **Logs**: The peak season is not prosperous, and the logs oscillate weakly. The weak demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [20] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report mentions the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn, starch, pigs, cotton, sugar, pulp, double - glued paper, and logs, but does not provide specific data analysis content [22][54][67][113][126][140][163] 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "weakly", with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [175]