Group 1: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - The macro - situation shows that the US tariff policies cause disruptions in supply chains, labor data weakens, and the risk of stagflation rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is increasing, but the tariff policies may drag down global consumption growth. [3] - In terms of fundamentals, overseas climate disturbances have weakened, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia has increased. The nickel sulfate market is still hot, but the pure nickel market is cold, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. [3] - In the later stage, due to the repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices may fluctuate. There is a game between the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening demand. The industry remains relatively stable, but the demand in major consumption areas lacks growth expectations, and the fundamentals are weakly improved. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - SHFE nickel price increased from 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4, 2025, to 121,180 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, up 550 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,066 dollars/ton to 15,156 dollars/ton, up 90 dollars/ton. [5] - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,150 tons to 212,232 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 549 tons to 20,621 tons. [5] 2. Market Review - **Macro - level**: US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the risk of stagflation is discussed again. Trump's tariff policies continue, and trade disputes are hard to calm down. [6] - **Nickel ore**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is increasing, but the price of nickel ore is relatively firm. There is a strong expectation of price reduction at the ore end. [6] - **Pure nickel**: Domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly in July, but the smelter's production plan increased slightly. The export of domestic pure nickel decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. [7] - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. The production of nickel pig iron in China decreased slightly in July, and the import from Indonesia increased significantly. The inventory of nickel iron is at a high level, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. [8][9] - **Nickel sulfate**: The price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased in July, and the inventory of nickel sulfate decreased. [9] - **New energy**: The retail sales of new - energy vehicles in July decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped significantly. The price competition among car companies has improved, but the market demand is limited. [9] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of pure nickel in six locations decreased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased. [10] 3. Industry News - Indonesia announced the benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in August (Phase I), which increased by about 0.69% compared with July (Phase II). [12] - LME cancelled the decision to suspend the delivery of AMBATOVY nickel beans. [12] - In July 2025, the monthly nickel output of GEM's Indonesian nickel project exceeded 10,000 tons. [12] - The Indonesian government is promoting new regulations to encourage the transition from lithium - ion batteries to nickel - based batteries, and has cooperated with some enterprises. [12] - Medallion Metals acquired the 100% legal and beneficial rights and interests of the Forrestania nickel project. [12]

特朗普迫使苹果向美国转移产能的行动，最终还是奏效了。 8月7日，苹果CEO库克与美国总统特朗普，共同宣布了一项新的共计1000亿美元的投资计划，用于美国国内制造业。这是苹果为避免iPhone被征收惩罚性关 税，而做出的最新增加美国产量的承诺。 苹果此前承诺未来四年在美国投资5000亿美元，略高于其此前的投资和宣布的计划，每年将增加约390亿美元的支出和1000个就业岗位。此次声明将使苹果 的累计投资承诺达到6000亿美元。 自对等关税风波以来，特朗普就要求苹果将制造业务从中国和印度转移到美国。特朗普还威胁称，如果苹果不将部分制造业务转移回国内，他将对苹果产品 征收25%的关税。 苹果表示，AMP（美国制造计划） 的合作伙伴包括玻璃制造商康宁公司、应用材料公司、德州仪器公司等。其中，苹果对长期玻璃供应商康宁公司 (Corning Inc.)投资 25 亿美元，所有 iPhone 和 Apple Watch 的盖板玻璃将首次在美国康宁位于肯塔基州的工厂生产。 苹果公司上周表示，二季度其因关税遭受了8亿美元的损失，并预计在不改变政策或征收新关税的情况下，三季度其成本将增加11亿美元。 而在最新的关税法案中，特朗普表 ...

Group 1: Overall Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%[3] - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises typically aligns with the profit growth of non-financial A-share companies, indicating a potential slowdown in A-share earnings for Q2 compared to Q1[3][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - From a cumulative year-on-year perspective, the profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors were -15.3%, 7.1%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing midstream industries were less affected by tariff impacts[3] - The automotive industry saw a significant profit improvement in June, with profit growth jumping from -27.1% in May to 96.5%, leading to a positive overall profit growth of 11.1% for downstream sectors in June[4] Group 3: Industry Insights - Upstream sectors like coal mining and textile manufacturing showed weaker profit growth, with coal mining profits down by 53.0% in June[11] - Midstream sectors, particularly machinery and electronic equipment, demonstrated resilience, with profit growth rates of 6.5% and 3.5% respectively in the first half of 2025[4][11] Group 4: Risks and Policy Impacts - Future risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economy, and fluctuations in exports[4] - Policy support has played a crucial role in sustaining profits in resilient sectors, particularly in machinery and electronic equipment[4]

Report Information - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Report Type: PTA Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: On July 15, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,696 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The settlement price was 4,708 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 20,242 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,656 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 165,345 lots and an increase of 18,095 lots [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With the continuous decline in crude oil prices and the low processing margin of PTA, the PTA market may be relatively resistant to decline but will still follow the downward trend of crude oil. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly [5]. 2. Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: Investors weighed the 50 - day deadline before Trump's new sanctions on a European country and still worried about Trump's tariffs, causing international oil prices to fall. On July 14, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures contract for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47 or 2.15%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, down $1.15 or 1.63% [6]. - **PX Prices**: The estimated price of PX in the Chinese market was $834 - 836 per ton, down $19 per ton from the previous trading day. The estimated price of PX in the South Korean market was $814 - 816 per ton, also down $19 per ton. Affected by the tariff storm, international oil prices fluctuated downward, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. The domestic PX was still in the destocking cycle, and there was obvious wait - and - see sentiment in the market during the port declaration period, with no transaction reported [6]. - **PTA Prices in the East China Market**: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,718 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was referenced to the futures contract 2509 at a premium of 10 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. An individual buyer purchased 10,000 tons of PTA, and the average basis increased slightly [6]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures price summaries, basis spreads, PTA processing margins, TA9 - 1 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][16]

Core Insights - The landscape of cross-border e-commerce in China is shifting from a southern dominance to a more balanced northern presence, with cities like Wuhan and Qingdao emerging as significant players [1][2][3] - In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports are projected to reach 2.63 trillion yuan, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The northern regions are benefiting from lower production costs, abundant labor resources, and improved logistics networks, making them attractive destinations for cross-border e-commerce [3][5] Regional Developments - Southern cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have historically dominated cross-border e-commerce, with Guangdong province alone achieving an annual growth rate of 71.4% from 2015 to 2023 [1] - Northern cities such as Ezhou and Qingdao are seeing significant growth, with Ezhou's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume surging by 566% in 2024 [1][2] - The number of cross-border e-commerce enterprises in Shandong province has reached 14,000, indicating a robust growth in the northern market [1] Policy and Infrastructure - The "policy siphon" effect is evident, with cities like Qingdao being designated as cross-border e-commerce pilot zones, attracting a significant number of enterprises [2] - The logistics network in northern China is being upgraded, with Hebei province experiencing a 49% year-on-year increase in foreign trade containers in 2024 [3] - The establishment of over 1,000 cross-border e-commerce industrial parks and 2,500 overseas warehouses across the country is facilitating this growth [2] Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, cross-border e-commerce exports to the U.S. accounted for 34.2%, while exports to the U.K. and Germany were 8.1% and 6.2%, respectively [5][6] - The Asian market is becoming increasingly important, with platforms like Temu gaining traction in South Korea, achieving a 42.8% increase in user downloads [5][6] - The global e-commerce market is projected to reach $6.3 trillion, with cross-border e-commerce accounting for 22% of this total [17] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the cross-border e-commerce sector is intensifying, with many companies facing declining profit margins and increasing operational costs [20][21] - Major players are experiencing significant increases in marketing and warehousing expenses, with some companies reporting over 100% year-on-year increases in these costs [20][21] - The need for differentiated competition and complementary development between southern and northern markets is emphasized as essential for the sustainability of the industry [22]

特朗普7日在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上陆续发布了他写给14国领导人的信函。根据这些信的内容，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征 收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32%的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36% 的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临高达40%的关税。 关税风云进入第二季，但对于全球市场的影响在减弱。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 但此次关税风暴的冲击不及4月，美国三大指数7日跌幅不到1%；亚太股市7月8日表现更令人意外，日韩股市并没有明显受到影响，日经225指数、韩国 Kospi指数分别上涨0.25%、1.81%；上证综指和恒生指数8日分别涨0.7%和1.09%；截至记者发稿，欧洲股市主要指数走势平稳，英国富时100指数、德国 DAX指数8日盘中小幅上涨。 就目前而言，仅英国、越南与美国达成了协议，其他国家与美国的谈判结果仍不明确。美国与英国的协议表明，最低名义关税率不会低于10%，但豁免和配 额可能使澳大利亚、新加坡等经济体的实际关 ...

黄金趋势分析中 黄金日内空头趋势显著！特朗普关税风波未平？今夜能否触底反弹或形成有效突破？TTPS交易学长正 在直播，立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

Group 1: Profit Trends - In the first five months of 2025, industrial enterprises achieved a total profit of CNY 27,204.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises dropped sharply from 3.0% in April to -9.1% in May, indicating a significant impact from tariffs[1] - The decline in revenue profit margin contributed approximately 10.2 percentage points to the profit growth rate decline in May[1] Group 2: Cost and Revenue Factors - Rising costs due to tariffs have led to a decrease in profit margins, particularly affecting downstream industries[2] - Companies are showing a weakened willingness to restock, with both revenue and finished goods inventory growth rates declining in May[2] Group 3: Industry-Specific Impacts - Profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream industries in May were -21.7%, 3.5%, and -13.3% respectively, indicating increased pressure on upstream and downstream sectors[3] - Downstream industries, particularly entertainment products, textiles, and food manufacturing, experienced significant profit declines of -27.0%, -18.3%, and -7.0% respectively[3] Group 4: Enterprise Type Performance - State-owned enterprises saw a profit decline of -18.1% in May, while private enterprises experienced a smaller decline of 0.8%[6] - The larger impact on state-owned enterprises is attributed to their inability to quickly adjust supply chains in response to tariff changes[6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, characterized by a sharp decline in stock indices, rising bond yields, and a weakening dollar, driven by concerns over U.S. Treasury demand and fiscal policy uncertainties [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Dow Jones index fell nearly 500 points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.5%, and the dollar index dropped below 100 [1]. - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, surged by 15%, indicating heightened investor anxiety [1]. - Gold prices soared to $3,315 per ounce as investors sought safe-haven assets amid the market chaos [1]. Group 2: Treasury Auction and Demand - A recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds saw a final yield of 5.047%, which is 24 basis points higher than the previous auction in April [1]. - This auction result highlighted a significant drop in demand for U.S. Treasuries, forcing the Treasury Department to offer higher yields to attract buyers [1][3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a challenging situation, having maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the May 7 meeting [3][5]. - Powell emphasized the unpredictability of policy decisions, particularly in light of tariff-related uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration [3][5]. - The Fed's ability to lower interest rates may be constrained by rising inflation pressures and ongoing labor market strength, with wage growth reaching an annual rate of 3.9% [5][7]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Tax Cuts - The Trump administration is pushing for lower interest rates, with Treasury Secretary expressing a goal to reduce rates to a ten-year low [5]. - A new tax reform bill passed by the House Budget Committee is expected to reduce household tax burdens by approximately $140 billion annually, equivalent to 0.5% of GDP [5][8]. - Concerns about the lack of fiscal restraint have been voiced by Fed officials, indicating that higher tariffs could limit the Fed's ability to act on interest rates [7][10]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The S&P 500 index rebounded by 19.5% from its April lows, but underlying concerns about rising federal spending and long-term bond yields persist [8]. - A stark contrast between tariff revenue and soaring national debt has led to increased selling pressure in the bond market [8][10]. - The upcoming debt ceiling deadline in August and potential fiscal shortfalls from tax cuts may further complicate the Fed's decision-making process [10].

6月9日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜上涨，受助于库存下降和对中美贸易会谈的乐观情 绪。 交易商称，这些金属大部分运往美国。由于美国对进口铜征收关税的潜在威胁，美国的铜价大幅上涨。 伦敦时间6月9日17:00(北京时间6月10日00:00)，LME三个月期铜收涨100美元或1.03%，收报每吨9,793 美元。 | | 6月9日LEE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 我屋 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 9,793.00 | ↑ +100.00 ↑ +1.03% | | | 三个月期铝 | 2,479.00 | ↑ +28.50 +1.16% | | | 三个月期锌 | 2.649.50 | - -16.50 J | -0.62% | | 三个月期铅 | 1.986.50 | 1 +8.00 ↑ +0.40% | | | 三个月期镍 | 15,421.00 | 1 -66.00 -0.43% | | | 三个月期锡 | 32,709.00 | ↑ +366.00 ↑ +1.13% | | 由于担心矿山供应和LME ...