Ø 黄金行情回顾及主要观点： Ø 人民币计价黄金与国际金价走势比较： 数据来源：Wind，华安基金，截至2025/9/26 风险提示：敬请投资人关注投资黄金主题基金的特有风险，如黄金市场波动的风险、基金投资组合回报 与国内黄金现货价格回报偏离的风险、上海黄金交易所黄金现货市场投资风险等主要风险。基金管理公 司不保证上述基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益，基金过往业绩不能预示未来收益。我国基金运作时间 较短，不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。市场有风险，投资需谨慎，风险自担。投资人在投资基金前应认 真阅读《基金合同》和《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金产品的风险收益特征，在了解产 品情况及听取销售机构适当性意见的基础上，根据自身的风险承受能力、投资期限和投资目标，对基金 投资作出独立决策，选择合适的基金产品。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 上周金价延续上涨，再创历史新高。伦敦现货黄金收于3，759美元/盎司（周环比2.0%），国内AU9999 黄金收于853元/克（周环比3.3%）。 关税风波再起，后续仍或有行业关税出台。当地时间9月25日，美国总统特朗普宣布，自10月1日起，美 国将对多类进口产品实施 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is whether the weakness in the employment report reflects a decrease in labor demand or a labor shortage, or possibly both [2] - The uncertainty caused by the "tariff turmoil" since April may have led many employers to delay hiring plans, but this uncertainty should have decreased now, suggesting that hiring activities should resume [2] - The labor supply has stopped growing due to the Trump administration's effective border closure and ongoing deportation actions, indicating that the Fed should pause rate cuts to avoid exacerbating labor shortages and increasing inflation [2][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll report showed weakness, and the duration of unemployment has been steadily increasing, making a case for the Fed's easing policy [4] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, indicating a low layoff rate, while the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits has been rising, confirming that the duration of unemployment is lengthening [5][6] - The decision on whether the Fed will cut rates in September largely depends on the CPI inflation reports for July and August, with expectations that these data will show an increase due to tariffs [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - The macro - situation shows that the US tariff policies cause disruptions in supply chains, labor data weakens, and the risk of stagflation rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is increasing, but the tariff policies may drag down global consumption growth. [3] - In terms of fundamentals, overseas climate disturbances have weakened, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia has increased. The nickel sulfate market is still hot, but the pure nickel market is cold, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. [3] - In the later stage, due to the repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices may fluctuate. There is a game between the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening demand. The industry remains relatively stable, but the demand in major consumption areas lacks growth expectations, and the fundamentals are weakly improved. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - SHFE nickel price increased from 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4, 2025, to 121,180 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, up 550 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,066 dollars/ton to 15,156 dollars/ton, up 90 dollars/ton. [5] - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,150 tons to 212,232 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 549 tons to 20,621 tons. [5] 2. Market Review - **Macro - level**: US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the risk of stagflation is discussed again. Trump's tariff policies continue, and trade disputes are hard to calm down. [6] - **Nickel ore**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is increasing, but the price of nickel ore is relatively firm. There is a strong expectation of price reduction at the ore end. [6] - **Pure nickel**: Domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly in July, but the smelter's production plan increased slightly. The export of domestic pure nickel decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. [7] - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. The production of nickel pig iron in China decreased slightly in July, and the import from Indonesia increased significantly. The inventory of nickel iron is at a high level, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. [8][9] - **Nickel sulfate**: The price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased in July, and the inventory of nickel sulfate decreased. [9] - **New energy**: The retail sales of new - energy vehicles in July decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped significantly. The price competition among car companies has improved, but the market demand is limited. [9] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of pure nickel in six locations decreased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased. [10] 3. Industry News - Indonesia announced the benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in August (Phase I), which increased by about 0.69% compared with July (Phase II). [12] - LME cancelled the decision to suspend the delivery of AMBATOVY nickel beans. [12] - In July 2025, the monthly nickel output of GEM's Indonesian nickel project exceeded 10,000 tons. [12] - The Indonesian government is promoting new regulations to encourage the transition from lithium - ion batteries to nickel - based batteries, and has cooperated with some enterprises. [12] - Medallion Metals acquired the 100% legal and beneficial rights and interests of the Forrestania nickel project. [12]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a 39% import tariff on Swiss goods, including gold bars, has created new pressures on US-Swiss trade relations and is expected to drive up gold prices [1][7]. Group 1: Tariff Implementation - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has classified one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under a customs code that requires tariffs, contrary to previous expectations of exemption [1][2]. - The decision has led to an estimated additional tariff burden of $24 billion on Swiss gold exports to the US, based on $61.5 billion worth of gold exported in the past year [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The unexpected tariff has caused uncertainty in the Swiss refining industry, with some refiners temporarily reducing or halting gold shipments to the US [3]. - The new tariff regulations disrupt the established triangular gold trade route from London to New York via Switzerland, potentially forcing the market to seek more expensive or less efficient alternatives [4][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The tariff is likely to push up gold prices in New York, as it targets the essential gold bar specifications needed for inventory replenishment [6][7]. - Gold prices have already been on the rise, increasing by 27% since the end of 2024, reaching as high as $3,500 per ounce, driven by inflation concerns and US debt levels [7].

Core Viewpoint - Apple's commitment to invest $100 billion in U.S. manufacturing is a response to pressure from President Trump to shift production from China and India to the U.S. to avoid punitive tariffs on iPhones [2][3]. Group 1: Investment Plans - Apple announced a new investment plan totaling $100 billion for U.S. manufacturing, increasing its total investment commitment to $600 billion [2]. - The company previously committed to invest $500 billion over four years, which translates to an annual increase of approximately $39 billion and the creation of 1,000 jobs [2]. - Apple reported an $800 million loss due to tariffs in Q2 and anticipates an additional $1.1 billion increase in costs in Q3 if policies remain unchanged [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Partnerships - Apple is shifting more of its supply chain and advanced manufacturing to the U.S. to avoid high tariffs on its products [3]. - The company is collaborating with Corning Inc. for glass production in Kentucky, investing $2.5 billion, which will increase Corning's workforce in the state by 50% [3][4]. - Apple is expanding partnerships with Texas Instruments for chip manufacturing in Utah and Texas, and is also working with Samsung to produce new chips in Texas [4]. Group 3: Challenges and Market Reaction - Despite the new investment plans, Apple has not detailed how it will transition iPhone and other device production from overseas to the U.S., with assembly still occurring in China and India [5]. - Transitioning manufacturing operations back to the U.S. is expected to be a challenging task due to the existing workforce and customized processes in Asia [5]. - Following the announcement of the $100 billion investment plan, Apple's stock surged over 5%, marking its largest increase in nearly three months [5].

Group 1: Overall Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, industrial enterprises in China achieved a total profit of CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%[3] - The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises typically aligns with the profit growth of non-financial A-share companies, indicating a potential slowdown in A-share earnings for Q2 compared to Q1[3][7] Group 2: Sector Performance - From a cumulative year-on-year perspective, the profit growth rates for upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors were -15.3%, 7.1%, and -0.6%, respectively, showing midstream industries were less affected by tariff impacts[3] - The automotive industry saw a significant profit improvement in June, with profit growth jumping from -27.1% in May to 96.5%, leading to a positive overall profit growth of 11.1% for downstream sectors in June[4] Group 3: Industry Insights - Upstream sectors like coal mining and textile manufacturing showed weaker profit growth, with coal mining profits down by 53.0% in June[11] - Midstream sectors, particularly machinery and electronic equipment, demonstrated resilience, with profit growth rates of 6.5% and 3.5% respectively in the first half of 2025[4][11] Group 4: Risks and Policy Impacts - Future risks include potential policy shortcomings, unexpected changes in the domestic economy, and fluctuations in exports[4] - Policy support has played a crucial role in sustaining profits in resilient sectors, particularly in machinery and electronic equipment[4]

Report Information - Report Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Report Type: PTA Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: On July 15, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2509 was 4,696 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.63%. The settlement price was 4,708 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 20,242 lots. The closing price of TA2601 was 4,656 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 165,345 lots and an increase of 18,095 lots [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With the continuous decline in crude oil prices and the low processing margin of PTA, the PTA market may be relatively resistant to decline but will still follow the downward trend of crude oil. It is expected that the PTA market will decline slightly [5]. 2. Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: Investors weighed the 50 - day deadline before Trump's new sanctions on a European country and still worried about Trump's tariffs, causing international oil prices to fall. On July 14, the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures contract for August 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.98 per barrel, down $1.47 or 2.15%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, down $1.15 or 1.63% [6]. - **PX Prices**: The estimated price of PX in the Chinese market was $834 - 836 per ton, down $19 per ton from the previous trading day. The estimated price of PX in the South Korean market was $814 - 816 per ton, also down $19 per ton. Affected by the tariff storm, international oil prices fluctuated downward, squeezing the cost momentum of PX. The domestic PX was still in the destocking cycle, and there was obvious wait - and - see sentiment in the market during the port declaration period, with no transaction reported [6]. - **PTA Prices in the East China Market**: The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,718 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was referenced to the futures contract 2509 at a premium of 10 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. An individual buyer purchased 10,000 tons of PTA, and the average basis increased slightly [6]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures price summaries, basis spreads, PTA processing margins, TA9 - 1 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][16]

Key Points - Gold prices remained volatile last week, with London spot gold closing at $3,355 per ounce (up 0.5% week-on-week) and domestic AU9999 gold at 770 yuan per gram (down 0.3% week-on-week) [1] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs remains high, as President Trump announced increased tariffs on several countries but postponed implementation until August 1. Additionally, a 50% tariff on imported copper will take effect in August [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, reaching 73.9 million ounces (approximately 2,298.55 tons) by the end of June, reflecting the strategic importance of gold as a "non-credit asset" in the global monetary system [1] - Global gold ETF investment demand remains strong, with $38 billion inflows in the first half of the year, marking the strongest semi-annual performance since the first half of 2020. All regions saw inflows, with North American and European investors leading the trend [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive amid U.S. trade protectionism and potential tariff fluctuations, as well as ongoing central bank gold purchases due to U.S. debt and dollar credit concerns [2] - Key signals to watch for gold ETFs in the coming week include trade negotiations and tariff developments, as well as U.S. inflation data for June [3]

Core Insights - The landscape of cross-border e-commerce in China is shifting from a southern dominance to a more balanced northern presence, with cities like Wuhan and Qingdao emerging as significant players [1][2][3] - In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce imports and exports are projected to reach 2.63 trillion yuan, marking a 10.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The northern regions are benefiting from lower production costs, abundant labor resources, and improved logistics networks, making them attractive destinations for cross-border e-commerce [3][5] Regional Developments - Southern cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen have historically dominated cross-border e-commerce, with Guangdong province alone achieving an annual growth rate of 71.4% from 2015 to 2023 [1] - Northern cities such as Ezhou and Qingdao are seeing significant growth, with Ezhou's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume surging by 566% in 2024 [1][2] - The number of cross-border e-commerce enterprises in Shandong province has reached 14,000, indicating a robust growth in the northern market [1] Policy and Infrastructure - The "policy siphon" effect is evident, with cities like Qingdao being designated as cross-border e-commerce pilot zones, attracting a significant number of enterprises [2] - The logistics network in northern China is being upgraded, with Hebei province experiencing a 49% year-on-year increase in foreign trade containers in 2024 [3] - The establishment of over 1,000 cross-border e-commerce industrial parks and 2,500 overseas warehouses across the country is facilitating this growth [2] Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, cross-border e-commerce exports to the U.S. accounted for 34.2%, while exports to the U.K. and Germany were 8.1% and 6.2%, respectively [5][6] - The Asian market is becoming increasingly important, with platforms like Temu gaining traction in South Korea, achieving a 42.8% increase in user downloads [5][6] - The global e-commerce market is projected to reach $6.3 trillion, with cross-border e-commerce accounting for 22% of this total [17] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the cross-border e-commerce sector is intensifying, with many companies facing declining profit margins and increasing operational costs [20][21] - Major players are experiencing significant increases in marketing and warehousing expenses, with some companies reporting over 100% year-on-year increases in these costs [20][21] - The need for differentiated competition and complementary development between southern and northern markets is emphasized as essential for the sustainability of the industry [22]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, effective August 1, which has led to a mixed reaction in global markets [1][2][3] - The countries affected by the tariffs include Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Tunisia, Kazakhstan (25%); South Africa and Bosnia (30%); Indonesia (32%); Serbia and Bangladesh (35%); Thailand and Cambodia (36%); Laos and Myanmar (up to 40%) [1][2] - Despite the announcement, the impact on global markets appears to be less severe than previous tariff announcements, with major indices showing minimal declines and some markets, like Japan and South Korea, even experiencing gains [1][5] Group 2 - Market concerns regarding tariffs have diminished, with institutions like Goldman Sachs increasing their stock market targets and predicting a higher likelihood of trade agreements between the US and Europe [2][9] - The deadline for negotiations has been extended to August 1, allowing more time for potential agreements, with expectations that Europe may accept a 10% tariff on exports to the US [4][7] - The EU is actively seeking to negotiate exemptions and quota management for tariffs on automobiles and steel, but significant breakthroughs have yet to be achieved [7][8] Group 3 - The investment community is showing a preference for US equities, with analysts recommending an overweight position in sectors like technology and consumer discretionary in Asia, particularly in China and South Korea [10][11] - Concerns remain regarding US Treasury bonds, as global investors are shifting funds from dollar assets to euro assets, reflecting a bearish outlook on the dollar [12][13] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset for central banks and institutional investors, with ongoing accumulation by countries like China, indicating a long-term bullish trend for gold [14][15]