Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, has experienced a significant downturn, erasing all gains made in 2023, while the Shenzhen real estate market has also seen a substantial decline, reverting to levels not seen since 2016 [1][5]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has fallen below $94,000 in November, resulting in the liquidation of over 150,000 traders globally within a 24-hour period [1]. Group 2: Shenzhen Real Estate Market - The Shenzhen real estate market has erased all gains from the past decade, with prices returning to levels seen in early 2016 [5]. - In 2015, the average price of new homes in Shenzhen reached 33,426 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with transaction volumes and values significantly higher than in subsequent years [3]. - By 2025, some neighborhoods have seen price declines of 50% to 60% compared to peak levels [5]. - The overall housing price in Shenzhen has reverted to levels from February to March 2016, effectively negating the price increases from 2015 [5]. Group 3: Regional Performance in Shenzhen - Nanshan District has shown the strongest resilience, maintaining prices at mid-2018 levels [6]. - Longhua District has seen prices drop back to levels from March to May 2016 [7]. - Bao'an District's prices are stable, reflecting levels from 2017 to 2018 [8]. - Longgang District has been the most affected, with prices returning to levels from July to September 2015, although certain core areas show resilience [10]. - Luohu District's prices have fallen to levels seen in July 2015 [12]. Group 4: Market Characteristics - Three notable characteristics of the Shenzhen market include: 1. Areas supported by industry and education show the strongest price resilience [14]. 2. The quality of the property and its age are significant factors influencing prices [14]. 3. A profound value reassessment is occurring, widening the wealth gap between early and new homebuyers [14]. Group 5: Market Trends - The market is stabilizing, with many sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach [15]. - In November, 50.6% of second-hand listings in Shenzhen saw price declines, while 25.9% experienced price increases [16].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic housing prices are expected to continue their downward trend into 2025, with significant declines observed in both year-on-year and month-on-month metrics [1][3]. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - As of June, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.26% [1]. - Predictions indicate that housing prices in all major cities are entering a downward channel, with any market rescue policies only affecting short-term price fluctuations rather than altering the overarching trend [3][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The current housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is 40, while in second and third-tier cities it ranges from 20 to 25, indicating a significant disconnect from local residents' income levels [5]. - The belief that first-tier city housing prices will continue to rise is challenged by slow income growth and a negative population growth trend in major cities, which diminishes their attractiveness [7]. - DeepSeek's forecast suggests that in five years, the value of a 3 million yuan property will likely decrease across all major cities due to existing market bubbles and the need for prices to align with local income levels [9].