Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated changes in the real estate market by 2026, highlighting five major transformations that are expected to occur, despite the misinformation regarding predictions attributed to Cao Dewang [3][14]. Group 1: Market Trends - Transformation 1: Housing prices in first-tier cities are expected to shift from being resistant to declines to experiencing price corrections, as the price-to-income ratio reaches 40, indicating significant market bubbles [3][4]. - Transformation 2: The market will transition from investment-driven speculation to a focus on housing as a necessity, aligning prices more closely with local income levels [6][7]. - Transformation 3: The development approach will shift from "extensive development" to a focus on building quality homes, as policies encourage developers to prioritize quality over speed and profit [8][9]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - Transformation 4: An increase in "bargain-priced" cities is anticipated, where housing prices may drop to levels as low as several tens of thousands, driven by population outflows and limited local demand [11][12]. - Transformation 5: The introduction of 6 million affordable housing units over five years is expected to exert downward pressure on market prices, as these units will be priced lower than surrounding market-rate homes [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article clarifies that recent claims about Jack Ma predicting four major changes in housing prices by 2026 are false, as he has not made such statements. However, it discusses potential trends in the real estate market that may occur by 2026. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - The housing prices across the country are expected to show differentiation, with second and third-tier cities experiencing slower price adjustments while core areas in first-tier cities may face price declines due to high price-to-income ratios [5][6]. - The number of cities with "bargain prices" is likely to increase, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where population outflow exceeds inflow, leading to a long-term downward trend in housing prices [6][8]. - The implementation of real estate stimulus policies is anticipated to impact housing prices, with a general trend of "stability with a slight decline" expected as these policies are expected to be intensified [8][10]. Group 2: Impact of Affordable Housing - The introduction of affordable housing is projected to accelerate, with a plan to launch 6 million units over five years, which will lower housing costs for low-income families and potentially divert demand from the commercial housing market [10].