Core Viewpoint - The article clarifies that recent claims about Jack Ma predicting four major changes in housing prices by 2026 are false, as he has not made such statements. However, it discusses potential trends in the real estate market that may occur by 2026. Group 1: Housing Price Trends - The housing prices across the country are expected to show differentiation, with second and third-tier cities experiencing slower price adjustments while core areas in first-tier cities may face price declines due to high price-to-income ratios [5][6]. - The number of cities with "bargain prices" is likely to increase, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities where population outflow exceeds inflow, leading to a long-term downward trend in housing prices [6][8]. - The implementation of real estate stimulus policies is anticipated to impact housing prices, with a general trend of "stability with a slight decline" expected as these policies are expected to be intensified [8][10]. Group 2: Impact of Affordable Housing - The introduction of affordable housing is projected to accelerate, with a plan to launch 6 million units over five years, which will lower housing costs for low-income families and potentially divert demand from the commercial housing market [10].

作者：柯谈 中国香港的房价涨了，这个大家应该都知道。如果你不知道，那就太落伍了。 中原集团大家都不陌生，这个中介机构在大陆各个城市都有分店。虽然作为中介来说，预测房价大涨，可信度不能说特别高，但是不可否认的是：香港房 价，早已止跌，且开启上涨！ 香港差估署数据显示，在连续下跌三年后，今年前九个月私人住宅售价指数终于止跌回升约1.14%。9月份楼价指数更创下18个月来的最大单月升幅，按 月上升1.32%，报292.5点。这已是自五月以来连续四个月上升，累计涨幅已达2.1%。 根据美联物业研究中心数据显示，今年2-10月，香港一手住宅成交量持续攀升，连续8个月突破1500宗，10月份更是达到了2031宗，创下21年来最好的成 交记录。 香港房价这轮高点也是2021年，和我们大陆一样，但是为啥香港能三年就止跌回稳呢？ 未来能涨多少呢？ 最近有个资深人士出来预测了。这几天，中原集团主席施永青预计："香港楼价将在三年内升穿2021年楼市高位，与今年3月的低位相比，升幅达 41.85%。"同时，他认为 此次升浪更可以持续六年，由2025年升至2031年，与低位134.89点相比，升幅可达85%。 没错，施永青预测，香港房 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is considering three major measures to stimulate the housing market, which could significantly impact market dynamics if implemented [2][8]. Group 1: Housing Loan Interest Subsidy - The first proposed measure is a housing loan interest subsidy, which could lower commercial loan rates from approximately 3.05% to between 2.0% and 2.5% by subsidizing 50 to 100 basis points [2]. - This subsidy would primarily affect new loans, leaving existing loans unchanged, thus protecting banks' interest income while providing targeted support to new buyers [2][9]. - The existing framework for consumer loans and service industry loan subsidies can be adapted for housing loans, making this measure feasible and effective [2]. Group 2: Increase in Individual Income Tax Deductions - The second measure involves increasing the individual income tax deductions for housing loans, which would benefit both new and existing loan holders, providing psychological relief to current homeowners facing high interest rates [3]. - This policy is expected to appeal to high-income individuals, who are the most active buyers in the market, potentially stimulating the second-hand housing market by encouraging them to upgrade their homes [3][9]. Group 3: Reduction of Housing Transaction Deed Tax - The third measure is a further reduction in the housing transaction deed tax, which is a local tax that could be standardized at the national level, moving away from local variations [5]. - A reduction in deed tax could lead to significant savings for buyers, such as a reduction of 160,000 for an 8 million property or 20,000 for a 2 million property, effectively lowering the financial barrier for home purchases [6]. Group 4: Market Expectations Management - The overall direction of these policies indicates a shift towards precise and targeted support for essential and improved housing needs, rather than broad stimulus measures [8][9]. - The focus is on managing market expectations to stabilize core demand and prevent a decline in market sentiment, rather than encouraging indiscriminate buying [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent measures to stimulate the real estate market, while seemingly robust, are unlikely to effectively address the fundamental issues plaguing the housing sector [1][8]. Policy Measures - The first measure involves lowering the down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers to 15% and for second homes to 25%, which may increase homeownership eligibility but pushes buyers towards higher debt levels [3][8]. - The second measure is the cancellation of the lower limit on mortgage interest rates, which theoretically gives banks more pricing power, but the actual reduction in rates is expected to be minimal due to already low interest levels [5][8]. - The third measure is a 0.25 percentage point reduction in public housing loan rates, which is considered insufficient given the high property prices [6][8]. Market Conditions - The fundamental issue remains that housing prices are excessively high, with price-to-income ratios in second and third-tier cities reaching 20-25 times and over 40 times in first-tier cities, making it difficult for buyers to engage in the market [7][8]. - The average household's financial situation is strained, with real estate accounting for 77% of household assets, leaving little room for additional leverage [7][8]. - The market is characterized by an oversupply, with 120 million vacant homes available, while 96% of families already own at least one property, leading to a decline in both first-time and upgrade housing demand [7][8]. Conclusion - Overall, the central bank's three policy initiatives, despite their apparent strength, are unlikely to resolve the underlying issues of high housing prices, elevated household debt, and market oversupply [8].

Core Insights - Despite multiple rounds of market rescue policies in 2024, including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower interest rates, the effectiveness of these policies has shown significant divergence across different cities [1][3] - In first-tier cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the market response has been tepid, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle with severe inventory issues, making it difficult for policies to reverse the downturn [1][3] - The real estate market is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," indicating a need for systemic reforms rather than singular stimulus measures [7] Market Conditions - As of May 2025, the national second-hand housing listing volume reached 7.53 million units, with prices declining by 0.71% month-on-month and 7.24% year-on-year, surpassing the decline in new housing prices [4] - The average rental yield has decreased to 2.0% nationally, with some cities reporting yields below 1.5%, leading to a significant reduction in investment purchases [6] - The supply of affordable housing in Shenzhen is set to reach 50,000 units in 2025, priced at 30-60% of market rates, which is expected to divert demand from middle-income buyers [3] Developer Challenges - The top 100 real estate companies experienced an 11.8% year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025, with private enterprises' land acquisition share plummeting from 62% to 6%, indicating a shift towards state-owned enterprises [3] - Developers are facing ongoing liquidity issues, with major firms like Emperor International and New World Development defaulting on debts, leading to project delays and a loss of consumer trust [1][3] Policy Recommendations - Optimize supply structure by accelerating the implementation of quality housing standards and promoting the sale of existing homes and green buildings [8] - Address developer risks by expanding financing coordination mechanisms to support debt restructuring and project revitalization [8] - Activate demand through targeted measures for first-time buyers in core cities, such as tax incentives and increased public housing fund limits [8] - Implement differentiated regional policies to enhance land supply and infrastructure investment in inflow cities while addressing inventory in outflow cities through industrial integration and urban renewal [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing accelerated adjustments since April 2023, a trend expected to continue into 2024, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping for 22 consecutive months [1] - Five major transformations are anticipated in the Chinese real estate market in 2024, significantly impacting its structure and dynamics [8] Group 1: Major Transformations - Transformation Five: A new wave of demolition targeting urban villages and prefabricated houses is expected in 2024, driven by safety concerns due to aging structures [1] - Transformation Four: The construction of affordable housing is set to accelerate, with a government plan to build 6 million units over the next five years, shifting focus from the commodity housing market to providing housing security for low-income groups [3] - Transformation Three: The trend of selling properties as completed units is expected to rise, as calls to abolish the pre-sale system grow due to debt defaults and unfinished projects by major developers [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Transformation Two: Housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue declining, with significant drops observed in core areas, such as a 30-40% decrease in central Shanghai prices compared to 2021 peaks [5] - Transformation One: Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to intensify, including potential further relaxations of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4% [7]