这两天彭博社那篇"小作文"简直刷爆了整个财经圈和地产圈！ 买200万的刚需房，也能省2万，相当于首付直接打了个九五折。 契税减一点，就是实实在在把交易杠杆往下拉一点。 不刺激过度借贷，不推高风险，却能让观望的人"蠢蠢欲动"。 来源：彭博社 甭管你是刷某音、看某博，还是在业主群里吃瓜，肯定都看到这个传闻了： 说中国正在琢磨着祭出三招"王炸"来救市。 今天不讨论"会不会落地、什么时候落地"。我们换个更实在的角度：如果这些措施真的落地，楼市会变成什么样？外媒提到的核心有三条，咱们逐条聊。 一是，住房贷款贴息，这条最能引爆市场。 现在买房大家都知道，商贷利率普遍在3%上下，公积金2.6%左右。 假设政策真的如小作文里说的那样——贴50～100个基点（就是0.5%～1%） 那意味着什么？商贷可能从3.05% → 2.0%-2.5%。 这效果多大？说句不夸张的，对月供的影响比降房价更直接、更暴力。 更关键的是：贴息只对"新增"贷款有效，老房贷不动，避免影响银行存量利息收入。 这种"新人新办法、老人老办法"的操作，政策可控、力度精准，财政出钱、银行不受伤，也符合中央"不搞大水漫灌"的原则。 而且别忘了，全国已经大规模铺开过 ...

楼市寒意渐浓，决策层出手救市。5月17日，央行罕见地祭出三记重拳，试图扭转当前房地产市场的颓势，重燃楼市的活力。然而，这番举措在业内人士看 来，虽力度不小，但实际效果恐怕难如人意。 首先，降低首付比例，无疑是降低了购房的门槛。首套房首付比例骤降至15%，二套房降至25%，乍看之下，似乎能让更多人拥有了购房的资格。然而，这 仅仅是将购房者推向了高负债的边缘，并不能实质性地减轻购房负担。要知道，首付降低了，意味着贷款额度增加，随之而来的便是每月沉重的还贷压力， 这对于许多家庭来说，无疑是雪上加霜。 其次，取消房贷利率下限，看似赋予了各家银行更大的自主定价权，但实际效果也令人怀疑。银行终究是盈利机构，不可能无限制地降低房贷利率，尤其是 在当前利率水平已经很低的情况下，进一步下调的空间十分有限。购房者期待的是房价的实质性下降，而非仅仅是房贷利率上微乎其微的优惠。 再者，公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分点，对于动辄数百万的房价来说，显得杯水车薪。购房者真正渴望的是房价能够回归理性，而不是在贷款利率上做一 些小修小补。 究其根本，是房价高企，早已超越了普通民众的承受能力。在二三线城市，房价与收入之比高达20-25倍，一线 ...

Core Insights - Despite multiple rounds of market rescue policies in 2024, including relaxed purchase restrictions and lower interest rates, the effectiveness of these policies has shown significant divergence across different cities [1][3] - In first-tier cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou, the market response has been tepid, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle with severe inventory issues, making it difficult for policies to reverse the downturn [1][3] - The real estate market is transitioning from "incremental expansion" to "stock optimization," indicating a need for systemic reforms rather than singular stimulus measures [7] Market Conditions - As of May 2025, the national second-hand housing listing volume reached 7.53 million units, with prices declining by 0.71% month-on-month and 7.24% year-on-year, surpassing the decline in new housing prices [4] - The average rental yield has decreased to 2.0% nationally, with some cities reporting yields below 1.5%, leading to a significant reduction in investment purchases [6] - The supply of affordable housing in Shenzhen is set to reach 50,000 units in 2025, priced at 30-60% of market rates, which is expected to divert demand from middle-income buyers [3] Developer Challenges - The top 100 real estate companies experienced an 11.8% year-on-year decline in sales in the first half of 2025, with private enterprises' land acquisition share plummeting from 62% to 6%, indicating a shift towards state-owned enterprises [3] - Developers are facing ongoing liquidity issues, with major firms like Emperor International and New World Development defaulting on debts, leading to project delays and a loss of consumer trust [1][3] Policy Recommendations - Optimize supply structure by accelerating the implementation of quality housing standards and promoting the sale of existing homes and green buildings [8] - Address developer risks by expanding financing coordination mechanisms to support debt restructuring and project revitalization [8] - Activate demand through targeted measures for first-time buyers in core cities, such as tax incentives and increased public housing fund limits [8] - Implement differentiated regional policies to enhance land supply and infrastructure investment in inflow cities while addressing inventory in outflow cities through industrial integration and urban renewal [8]

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market has been experiencing accelerated adjustments since April 2023, a trend expected to continue into 2024, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities dropping for 22 consecutive months [1] - Five major transformations are anticipated in the Chinese real estate market in 2024, significantly impacting its structure and dynamics [8] Group 1: Major Transformations - Transformation Five: A new wave of demolition targeting urban villages and prefabricated houses is expected in 2024, driven by safety concerns due to aging structures [1] - Transformation Four: The construction of affordable housing is set to accelerate, with a government plan to build 6 million units over the next five years, shifting focus from the commodity housing market to providing housing security for low-income groups [3] - Transformation Three: The trend of selling properties as completed units is expected to rise, as calls to abolish the pre-sale system grow due to debt defaults and unfinished projects by major developers [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Transformation Two: Housing prices in first-tier cities are likely to continue declining, with significant drops observed in core areas, such as a 30-40% decrease in central Shanghai prices compared to 2021 peaks [5] - Transformation One: Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to intensify, including potential further relaxations of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4% [7]