Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].