一、买房人终于能清晰看到"实际得到了什么" 过去买房看建筑面积，有些楼盘宣传得天花乱坠，说得很大气，可等交付时才发现很多面积都算在公摊 里，进门一测才知道家里空间缩得和样板间完全不一样。 要是未来不讲公摊，只标使用面积，那大家掏钱买的就是自己真正能踩的地面，厨房能布置几组橱柜、 客厅能摆多大沙发、卧室能不能放下衣柜，一眼就有数，透明多了，也不会出现"买了大三房住成小两 房"的尴尬。 这对刚需来说吸引力很大，因为他们最怕钱花出去，空间却缩水，而取消公摊能提升确定性，让买房这 件事变得更有底气。 这几年关于房子的讨论从没停过，买房的犹豫、卖房的无奈、持有房子的焦虑，大家都经历过。可最近 一个话题突然又被推上来了，那就是"公摊面积未来或将取消"。看似一句话，却让不少已经买房的人心 里暗暗激动：是不是意味着使用面积要更值了？ 有些人可能弄不太明白公摊到底是什么，它就是电梯间、过道、楼梯间这些公共位置占用的面积，被平 均分摊到每户上面。听起来很正常，可不少人拿到房子后才发现，买了100平方米，真正能用的却只有 七十多，感觉吃了哑巴亏。 公摊面积要是取消，对市场到底意味着啥？其实释放了四个很明显的信号。 三、开发商的"玩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma about housing prices becoming as cheap as scallions by 2026 is increasingly being seen as plausible, with significant changes anticipated in the real estate market that could impact everyday life [1] Group 1: Market Trends - First turning point: Even first-tier cities may face a price correction, with potential declines spreading from suburban areas to city centers and affecting both old and new properties [3] - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities has exceeded 40, making homeownership unattainable for many, while income growth is stagnating, leading to a potential sell-off by investors [4] Group 2: Sales Model Changes - The era of selling pre-sale properties is ending, with a shift towards selling completed homes, allowing buyers to inspect properties before purchase, thus reducing risks associated with unfinished projects [5][6] - This change is expected to enhance buyer confidence and compel developers to focus on quality construction [5] Group 3: Quality of Housing - The market is transitioning to a buyer's market where consumers demand higher quality homes, leading developers to prioritize better construction standards and innovative designs [8] - Policies are encouraging the construction of high-quality homes, moving away from subpar developments [8] Group 4: Transparency in Sales - The elimination of shared areas in property sales is gaining traction, with cities like Zhaoqing and Zhangjiakou already implementing sales based on usable area, which could lead to greater transparency in the housing market [9] - This shift is expected to reduce costs for buyers and promote industry transparency, making it harder for unscrupulous developers to exploit loopholes [9] Group 5: Implications for Consumers - The anticipated changes reflect a broader shift in the real estate market from speculation to genuine housing needs, urging consumers to be cautious about investment and focus on personal housing requirements [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a period of adjustment since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30%, and certain cities experiencing declines of up to 60% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The prediction made by Jack Ma regarding housing prices becoming "like green onions" is becoming a reality in some third and fourth-tier cities, with major cities also trending towards this direction [3]. - By 2026, the real estate market is expected to face four major turning points, including price differentiation where some cities will experience further declines [5]. - Smaller cities, particularly around Beijing, have seen significant price drops, while core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen remain relatively stable [5]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - First-tier cities are likely to experience a "correction" in housing prices, moving from suburban areas to older properties and eventually to core areas [5]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is around 40, indicating a significant housing price bubble that is expected to correct over time [5]. - Factors contributing to this correction include stagnant or declining income levels and a loss of investment appeal in the housing market [5]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - There is a growing demand for the cancellation of pre-sale housing, with consumers preferring to buy completed homes to ensure quality and avoid issues like unfinished buildings [7]. - By 2026, consumers will have the option to purchase existing homes, allowing them to verify quality and layout before making a purchase [7]. Group 4: Development Standards - The real estate industry is shifting from a "rough development stage" to a focus on building quality homes that meet consumer expectations [8]. - Developers are expected to improve the quality, layout, and amenities of new homes in response to consumer demands and regulatory guidance [8]. Group 5: Common Area Charges - There is an increasing call to eliminate shared area calculations in property sales, as consumers often pay for more space than they actually receive [10]. - Some cities have already begun to calculate property prices based on usable area, which significantly reduces costs for buyers and eliminates additional fees associated with shared spaces [10]. - The trend towards eliminating shared area calculations is expected to grow, with more cities adopting this practice by 2026 [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential structural changes in the real estate market in China by 2026, highlighting the influence of Jack Ma's previous predictions, although it clarifies that recent claims about his predictions are false [1][6]. Group 1: Real Estate Price Trends - There is an expectation of significant differentiation in housing prices across various cities, with second and third-tier cities likely to continue bottoming out, while first-tier cities may experience a correction after a period of stability [4]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities exceeds 40, indicating that residents would need over 40 years of savings to afford a home, leading to a potential decline in prices in these areas [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The government is expected to strengthen real estate regulations, including increasing the proportion of "existing home sales" to mitigate risks associated with "pre-sale homes" [7][9]. - The easing of restrictions in core areas of first-tier cities and a decrease in mortgage rates and taxes for homebuyers are anticipated as part of the regulatory changes [9]. Group 3: Public Area Costs - There is a growing demand to eliminate shared area costs in property sales, as buyers often pay for areas that are not usable, leading to increased overall costs [11]. - Some cities have already begun to eliminate shared area costs, allowing developers to price homes based on usable area, which is expected to reduce the financial burden on buyers [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent claims about Li Ka-shing predicting five major changes in the real estate market by 2026 are confirmed to be false, as no such predictions have been made by him [1][14]. Group 1: Expected Changes in Real Estate Market by 2026 - Change 1: Significant differentiation in housing price trends is anticipated, with second and third-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in price declines, while first-tier cities may see price corrections to align with local income levels [5][11]. - Change 2: An increasing number of cities are expected to eliminate shared area calculations in property sales, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area, thereby reducing overall housing costs [7][12]. - Change 3: The market is likely to shift from pre-sale (off-plan) properties to completed (on-site) sales, enhancing buyer confidence and reducing the risk of unfinished projects [9][11]. - Change 4: A significant restructuring of the real estate sector is expected, with smaller firms facing liquidity issues likely to be acquired by larger companies, particularly those with state-owned backgrounds [11][12]. - Change 5: The pace of affordable housing projects is projected to accelerate, with a target of 600,000 units over five years, which will lower living costs for low-income families and exert downward pressure on market prices [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to experience a downward trend, with significant declines in both sales area and sales revenue, indicating a potential long-term adjustment phase [2][4]. Market Performance - From January to October 2025, the national new residential property sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue fell by 9.6% [2]. - In October 2025, all 100 cities surveyed saw a decline in second-hand housing prices, marking 32 consecutive months of month-on-month decreases in the second-hand housing market [2]. Predictions and Trends - **Policy Support**: The government is expected to strengthen market support policies, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in most cities and lowering mortgage rates below 3.5% [7]. - **Industry Restructuring**: A significant reshuffle among real estate companies is anticipated, with high-debt firms facing bankruptcy or acquisition due to declining sales and financing challenges [10]. - **Shift to Existing Homes**: There will be a gradual shift from pre-sale properties to existing homes, allowing buyers to inspect properties before purchase, thereby reducing risks [11]. - **Elimination of Shared Area Costs**: More cities are likely to eliminate shared area calculations in property pricing, which will lower the financial burden on homebuyers [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about housing prices becoming as cheap as onions is increasingly becoming a reality, as housing prices in China have significantly declined since 2022, with some areas experiencing drops of over 60% [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average price drop of over 30% compared to historical highs [3]. - In certain third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to extremely low levels, with some properties available for just tens of thousands of yuan [3]. - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with increased regulatory measures anticipated [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment for real estate is expected to tighten further, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increases in public housing loan limits to encourage home purchases [5]. - Tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, are also likely to be implemented to support the market [5]. Group 3: Price Differentiation - A clear differentiation in housing prices across regions is anticipated, with cities that have already seen significant price drops having limited further decline potential [7]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which still have high price-to-income ratios, are expected to experience a correction, starting with suburban areas before affecting city centers [7]. Group 4: Shift from Off-Plan to Completed Properties - Due to recent financial issues faced by major real estate companies, there is a growing demand to eliminate off-plan sales, leading to a shift towards selling completed properties [9]. - This change allows buyers to inspect properties before purchase, enhancing consumer confidence in the market [9]. Group 5: Elimination of Shared Area Costs - An increasing number of cities are abolishing the shared area cost in property pricing, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area only, which is positively received by the public [10][11]. - The trend of eliminating shared area costs is expected to continue, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [10].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The pace of demolition and construction of high-rise buildings has slowed, with resources focusing on urban renewal of old neighborhoods built over 20 years ago, including upgrades like elevator installations and infrastructure improvements [1] - As of now, 280,000 old neighborhoods have been renovated, with 130,000 elevators installed and 3.8 million parking spaces added, alongside the updating of approximately 500,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that all urban old neighborhoods built before 2000 will undergo renovation, affecting around 220,000 neighborhoods and approximately 39 million households [1] Group 2: Policy Changes in Real Estate Sales - The cancellation of the pre-sale system has been officially implemented in Xinyang, Henan, requiring all new real estate projects to be sold only after completion, increasing pressure on developers [3] - This shift to selling completed homes is expected to stabilize housing prices by limiting new project launches and reducing land supply, benefiting ordinary homebuyers [3][4] - The new regulations also aim to improve housing quality by eliminating the "high turnover" model that led to many low-quality pre-sold homes, ensuring that only developers who focus on quality remain in the market [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The focus of the real estate market is shifting from new home supply to the second-hand housing market, as the core driving force for price increases changes [4] - Future housing options will cater to diverse consumer needs, including renovated old neighborhoods, affordable housing, and improved quality in new homes, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing living conditions over speculative investments [6] - Homebuyers are increasingly valuing the residential attributes of properties rather than seeking profit from price fluctuations, indicating a fundamental change in purchasing motivations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate pre-sale system and shared area policies are at a transformative moment, with a shift towards selling completed properties and gradually eliminating shared areas [1][4][6] - Over 20 cities in China have issued documents to promote the transition to selling completed properties and to phase out shared areas [2][3] - The current proportion of completed property sales has increased from 10% to over 30%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [14] Group 2 - The pre-sale system, which allows developers to quickly recoup funds, is facing challenges due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [19][22] - The high turnover model associated with pre-sales has led to issues such as construction quality concerns and the risk of unfinished projects, undermining buyer confidence [23][24] - The article suggests that if the pre-sale system cannot be completely abolished, it should be reformed with strict regulatory measures or a phased approach to transition to completed sales [30][31] Group 3 - Historical context shows that Hong Kong, which originally developed the concepts of shared areas and pre-sales, has moved away from these practices, indicating a potential path for mainland China [32][40] - Hong Kong has implemented regulations requiring full payment of land costs and proof of funding before construction, which has minimized the occurrence of unfinished projects [42][43] - The article emphasizes that the real estate market cannot revert to past high-leverage models, and rebuilding public trust in the market is crucial [44][45]