早在2017年的某次互联网大会上，马云就抛出一句令人震惊的预言："未来房价会像葱一样便宜。"当时，房价正处于上升的趋势之中。房企都在疯狂拿地建 房，而炒房者则在连夜排队买房。所以，很多人对马云的预言嗤之以鼻，认为马云的言论有哗众取宠之嫌。 从2022年开始，国内房价就进入到长期调整的趋势之中。现在全国各地的房价与历史最高位相比，平均跌幅超过30%，而像涿州、廊坊等环京楼市的房价跌 幅更是超过了60%。此外，鹤岗、阜新、双鸭山等三四线城市的房价已经跌至"白菜价"，只要花几万元或者十几万元就可以买套房子。 目前，国内房价要么正朝着马云预测的方向运行，要么部分三四线城市已经出现了"葱价"。马云当年的预言已经快要实现了。而面对当前国内房地产市场的 趋势，有业内人士表示：若无意外，2026年房地产将发生重大改变。让我们一起来了解一下： 第一，房地产调控力度会加强 在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场还是延续了之前调整的走势。预计到2026年这个房地产趋势还将会继续下去。而为了避免短期内房地产市场出现大幅波 动，明年的房地产调控力度大概率还会继续加强。 除了一线城市逐步放开限购政策之外，银行的房贷利率还有望进一步下降。此外 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The pace of demolition and construction of high-rise buildings has slowed, with resources focusing on urban renewal of old neighborhoods built over 20 years ago, including upgrades like elevator installations and infrastructure improvements [1] - As of now, 280,000 old neighborhoods have been renovated, with 130,000 elevators installed and 3.8 million parking spaces added, alongside the updating of approximately 500,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that all urban old neighborhoods built before 2000 will undergo renovation, affecting around 220,000 neighborhoods and approximately 39 million households [1] Group 2: Policy Changes in Real Estate Sales - The cancellation of the pre-sale system has been officially implemented in Xinyang, Henan, requiring all new real estate projects to be sold only after completion, increasing pressure on developers [3] - This shift to selling completed homes is expected to stabilize housing prices by limiting new project launches and reducing land supply, benefiting ordinary homebuyers [3][4] - The new regulations also aim to improve housing quality by eliminating the "high turnover" model that led to many low-quality pre-sold homes, ensuring that only developers who focus on quality remain in the market [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The focus of the real estate market is shifting from new home supply to the second-hand housing market, as the core driving force for price increases changes [4] - Future housing options will cater to diverse consumer needs, including renovated old neighborhoods, affordable housing, and improved quality in new homes, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing living conditions over speculative investments [6] - Homebuyers are increasingly valuing the residential attributes of properties rather than seeking profit from price fluctuations, indicating a fundamental change in purchasing motivations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate pre-sale system and shared area policies are at a transformative moment, with a shift towards selling completed properties and gradually eliminating shared areas [1][4][6] - Over 20 cities in China have issued documents to promote the transition to selling completed properties and to phase out shared areas [2][3] - The current proportion of completed property sales has increased from 10% to over 30%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [14] Group 2 - The pre-sale system, which allows developers to quickly recoup funds, is facing challenges due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [19][22] - The high turnover model associated with pre-sales has led to issues such as construction quality concerns and the risk of unfinished projects, undermining buyer confidence [23][24] - The article suggests that if the pre-sale system cannot be completely abolished, it should be reformed with strict regulatory measures or a phased approach to transition to completed sales [30][31] Group 3 - Historical context shows that Hong Kong, which originally developed the concepts of shared areas and pre-sales, has moved away from these practices, indicating a potential path for mainland China [32][40] - Hong Kong has implemented regulations requiring full payment of land costs and proof of funding before construction, which has minimized the occurrence of unfinished projects [42][43] - The article emphasizes that the real estate market cannot revert to past high-leverage models, and rebuilding public trust in the market is crucial [44][45]