Core Insights - The article discusses the potential structural changes in the real estate market in China by 2026, highlighting the influence of Jack Ma's previous predictions, although it clarifies that recent claims about his predictions are false [1][6]. Group 1: Real Estate Price Trends - There is an expectation of significant differentiation in housing prices across various cities, with second and third-tier cities likely to continue bottoming out, while first-tier cities may experience a correction after a period of stability [4]. - The housing price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities exceeds 40, indicating that residents would need over 40 years of savings to afford a home, leading to a potential decline in prices in these areas [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The government is expected to strengthen real estate regulations, including increasing the proportion of "existing home sales" to mitigate risks associated with "pre-sale homes" [7][9]. - The easing of restrictions in core areas of first-tier cities and a decrease in mortgage rates and taxes for homebuyers are anticipated as part of the regulatory changes [9]. Group 3: Public Area Costs - There is a growing demand to eliminate shared area costs in property sales, as buyers often pay for areas that are not usable, leading to increased overall costs [11]. - Some cities have already begun to eliminate shared area costs, allowing developers to price homes based on usable area, which is expected to reduce the financial burden on buyers [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent claims about Li Ka-shing predicting five major changes in the real estate market by 2026 are confirmed to be false, as no such predictions have been made by him [1][14]. Group 1: Expected Changes in Real Estate Market by 2026 - Change 1: Significant differentiation in housing price trends is anticipated, with second and third-tier cities experiencing a slowdown in price declines, while first-tier cities may see price corrections to align with local income levels [5][11]. - Change 2: An increasing number of cities are expected to eliminate shared area calculations in property sales, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area, thereby reducing overall housing costs [7][12]. - Change 3: The market is likely to shift from pre-sale (off-plan) properties to completed (on-site) sales, enhancing buyer confidence and reducing the risk of unfinished projects [9][11]. - Change 4: A significant restructuring of the real estate sector is expected, with smaller firms facing liquidity issues likely to be acquired by larger companies, particularly those with state-owned backgrounds [11][12]. - Change 5: The pace of affordable housing projects is projected to accelerate, with a target of 600,000 units over five years, which will lower living costs for low-income families and exert downward pressure on market prices [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China continues to experience a downward trend, with significant declines in both sales area and sales revenue, indicating a potential long-term adjustment phase [2][4]. Market Performance - From January to October 2025, the national new residential property sales area decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, while sales revenue fell by 9.6% [2]. - In October 2025, all 100 cities surveyed saw a decline in second-hand housing prices, marking 32 consecutive months of month-on-month decreases in the second-hand housing market [2]. Predictions and Trends - **Policy Support**: The government is expected to strengthen market support policies, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions in most cities and lowering mortgage rates below 3.5% [7]. - **Industry Restructuring**: A significant reshuffle among real estate companies is anticipated, with high-debt firms facing bankruptcy or acquisition due to declining sales and financing challenges [10]. - **Shift to Existing Homes**: There will be a gradual shift from pre-sale properties to existing homes, allowing buyers to inspect properties before purchase, thereby reducing risks [11]. - **Elimination of Shared Area Costs**: More cities are likely to eliminate shared area calculations in property pricing, which will lower the financial burden on homebuyers [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about housing prices becoming as cheap as onions is increasingly becoming a reality, as housing prices in China have significantly declined since 2022, with some areas experiencing drops of over 60% [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average price drop of over 30% compared to historical highs [3]. - In certain third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to extremely low levels, with some properties available for just tens of thousands of yuan [3]. - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with increased regulatory measures anticipated [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment for real estate is expected to tighten further, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increases in public housing loan limits to encourage home purchases [5]. - Tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, are also likely to be implemented to support the market [5]. Group 3: Price Differentiation - A clear differentiation in housing prices across regions is anticipated, with cities that have already seen significant price drops having limited further decline potential [7]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which still have high price-to-income ratios, are expected to experience a correction, starting with suburban areas before affecting city centers [7]. Group 4: Shift from Off-Plan to Completed Properties - Due to recent financial issues faced by major real estate companies, there is a growing demand to eliminate off-plan sales, leading to a shift towards selling completed properties [9]. - This change allows buyers to inspect properties before purchase, enhancing consumer confidence in the market [9]. Group 5: Elimination of Shared Area Costs - An increasing number of cities are abolishing the shared area cost in property pricing, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area only, which is positively received by the public [10][11]. - The trend of eliminating shared area costs is expected to continue, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [10].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The pace of demolition and construction of high-rise buildings has slowed, with resources focusing on urban renewal of old neighborhoods built over 20 years ago, including upgrades like elevator installations and infrastructure improvements [1] - As of now, 280,000 old neighborhoods have been renovated, with 130,000 elevators installed and 3.8 million parking spaces added, alongside the updating of approximately 500,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that all urban old neighborhoods built before 2000 will undergo renovation, affecting around 220,000 neighborhoods and approximately 39 million households [1] Group 2: Policy Changes in Real Estate Sales - The cancellation of the pre-sale system has been officially implemented in Xinyang, Henan, requiring all new real estate projects to be sold only after completion, increasing pressure on developers [3] - This shift to selling completed homes is expected to stabilize housing prices by limiting new project launches and reducing land supply, benefiting ordinary homebuyers [3][4] - The new regulations also aim to improve housing quality by eliminating the "high turnover" model that led to many low-quality pre-sold homes, ensuring that only developers who focus on quality remain in the market [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The focus of the real estate market is shifting from new home supply to the second-hand housing market, as the core driving force for price increases changes [4] - Future housing options will cater to diverse consumer needs, including renovated old neighborhoods, affordable housing, and improved quality in new homes, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing living conditions over speculative investments [6] - Homebuyers are increasingly valuing the residential attributes of properties rather than seeking profit from price fluctuations, indicating a fundamental change in purchasing motivations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate pre-sale system and shared area policies are at a transformative moment, with a shift towards selling completed properties and gradually eliminating shared areas [1][4][6] - Over 20 cities in China have issued documents to promote the transition to selling completed properties and to phase out shared areas [2][3] - The current proportion of completed property sales has increased from 10% to over 30%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [14] Group 2 - The pre-sale system, which allows developers to quickly recoup funds, is facing challenges due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [19][22] - The high turnover model associated with pre-sales has led to issues such as construction quality concerns and the risk of unfinished projects, undermining buyer confidence [23][24] - The article suggests that if the pre-sale system cannot be completely abolished, it should be reformed with strict regulatory measures or a phased approach to transition to completed sales [30][31] Group 3 - Historical context shows that Hong Kong, which originally developed the concepts of shared areas and pre-sales, has moved away from these practices, indicating a potential path for mainland China [32][40] - Hong Kong has implemented regulations requiring full payment of land costs and proof of funding before construction, which has minimized the occurrence of unfinished projects [42][43] - The article emphasizes that the real estate market cannot revert to past high-leverage models, and rebuilding public trust in the market is crucial [44][45]