在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场仍旧延续之前调整的趋势。数据显示，2025年1-10月，全国新建商品 房销售面积同比下降6.8%，销售额同比下降9.6%。此外，2025年10月，中国100个城市的二手住宅价格 全部下跌，无一城市持平或上涨，二手房市场已经连续32个月环比下跌。 而对于当前国内房地产市场调整的走势，已经被华人首富李嘉诚给说中了。早在2018年，李嘉诚就曾做 出过预测：房子始终是用来住人的，内地的房价一直居高不下，在未来数年内，房地产行业有可能会面 临大洗牌，炒房客们应该谨慎了。当时，国内房地产正处于上涨的周期，开发商在疯狂拿地，炒房客在 连续排队买房，很多人对李嘉诚的预测并没有太当一回事。 而从现在看来，当年李嘉诚的预测，主要想表达两层含义：一方面，内地的房价居高不下，已经沦为投 资品，存在着较大泡沫。不过，最终高房价还是要逐步回归居住属性。所以，提醒炒房者要当心了，别 被套在楼市，不幸成为接盘侠。 随着房地产市场持续低迷，有越来越多的救市政策持续推出。比如，除一线城市的核心区域之外，其他 绝大多数城市都已经全面放开了限购政策。同时，银行也把房贷利率降到3.5%以下，首付比例也降到 20%。去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction made by Jack Ma in 2017 about housing prices becoming as cheap as onions is increasingly becoming a reality, as housing prices in China have significantly declined since 2022, with some areas experiencing drops of over 60% [3][5]. Group 1: Current Market Trends - Since 2022, the domestic housing market has entered a long-term adjustment phase, with an average price drop of over 30% compared to historical highs [3]. - In certain third and fourth-tier cities, housing prices have fallen to extremely low levels, with some properties available for just tens of thousands of yuan [3]. - The real estate market is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, with increased regulatory measures anticipated [5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The regulatory environment for real estate is expected to tighten further, with potential reductions in mortgage rates and increases in public housing loan limits to encourage home purchases [5]. - Tax relief measures, including reductions in deed tax and value-added tax, are also likely to be implemented to support the market [5]. Group 3: Price Differentiation - A clear differentiation in housing prices across regions is anticipated, with cities that have already seen significant price drops having limited further decline potential [7]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, which still have high price-to-income ratios, are expected to experience a correction, starting with suburban areas before affecting city centers [7]. Group 4: Shift from Off-Plan to Completed Properties - Due to recent financial issues faced by major real estate companies, there is a growing demand to eliminate off-plan sales, leading to a shift towards selling completed properties [9]. - This change allows buyers to inspect properties before purchase, enhancing consumer confidence in the market [9]. Group 5: Elimination of Shared Area Costs - An increasing number of cities are abolishing the shared area cost in property pricing, allowing buyers to pay based on usable area only, which is positively received by the public [10][11]. - The trend of eliminating shared area costs is expected to continue, reducing the financial burden on homebuyers [10].

Group 1: Real Estate Market Changes - The pace of demolition and construction of high-rise buildings has slowed, with resources focusing on urban renewal of old neighborhoods built over 20 years ago, including upgrades like elevator installations and infrastructure improvements [1] - As of now, 280,000 old neighborhoods have been renovated, with 130,000 elevators installed and 3.8 million parking spaces added, alongside the updating of approximately 500,000 kilometers of underground pipelines [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that all urban old neighborhoods built before 2000 will undergo renovation, affecting around 220,000 neighborhoods and approximately 39 million households [1] Group 2: Policy Changes in Real Estate Sales - The cancellation of the pre-sale system has been officially implemented in Xinyang, Henan, requiring all new real estate projects to be sold only after completion, increasing pressure on developers [3] - This shift to selling completed homes is expected to stabilize housing prices by limiting new project launches and reducing land supply, benefiting ordinary homebuyers [3][4] - The new regulations also aim to improve housing quality by eliminating the "high turnover" model that led to many low-quality pre-sold homes, ensuring that only developers who focus on quality remain in the market [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Preferences - The focus of the real estate market is shifting from new home supply to the second-hand housing market, as the core driving force for price increases changes [4] - Future housing options will cater to diverse consumer needs, including renovated old neighborhoods, affordable housing, and improved quality in new homes, reflecting a shift towards prioritizing living conditions over speculative investments [6] - Homebuyers are increasingly valuing the residential attributes of properties rather than seeking profit from price fluctuations, indicating a fundamental change in purchasing motivations [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate pre-sale system and shared area policies are at a transformative moment, with a shift towards selling completed properties and gradually eliminating shared areas [1][4][6] - Over 20 cities in China have issued documents to promote the transition to selling completed properties and to phase out shared areas [2][3] - The current proportion of completed property sales has increased from 10% to over 30%, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [14] Group 2 - The pre-sale system, which allows developers to quickly recoup funds, is facing challenges due to changing supply-demand dynamics in the real estate market [19][22] - The high turnover model associated with pre-sales has led to issues such as construction quality concerns and the risk of unfinished projects, undermining buyer confidence [23][24] - The article suggests that if the pre-sale system cannot be completely abolished, it should be reformed with strict regulatory measures or a phased approach to transition to completed sales [30][31] Group 3 - Historical context shows that Hong Kong, which originally developed the concepts of shared areas and pre-sales, has moved away from these practices, indicating a potential path for mainland China [32][40] - Hong Kong has implemented regulations requiring full payment of land costs and proof of funding before construction, which has minimized the occurrence of unfinished projects [42][43] - The article emphasizes that the real estate market cannot revert to past high-leverage models, and rebuilding public trust in the market is crucial [44][45]