在进入到2025年之后，房地产市场仍旧延续之前调整的趋势。数据显示，2025年1-10月，全国新建商品 房销售面积同比下降6.8%，销售额同比下降9.6%。此外，2025年10月，中国100个城市的二手住宅价格 全部下跌，无一城市持平或上涨，二手房市场已经连续32个月环比下跌。 而对于当前国内房地产市场调整的走势，已经被华人首富李嘉诚给说中了。早在2018年，李嘉诚就曾做 出过预测：房子始终是用来住人的，内地的房价一直居高不下，在未来数年内，房地产行业有可能会面 临大洗牌，炒房客们应该谨慎了。当时，国内房地产正处于上涨的周期，开发商在疯狂拿地，炒房客在 连续排队买房，很多人对李嘉诚的预测并没有太当一回事。 而从现在看来，当年李嘉诚的预测，主要想表达两层含义：一方面，内地的房价居高不下，已经沦为投 资品，存在着较大泡沫。不过，最终高房价还是要逐步回归居住属性。所以，提醒炒房者要当心了，别 被套在楼市，不幸成为接盘侠。 随着房地产市场持续低迷，有越来越多的救市政策持续推出。比如，除一线城市的核心区域之外，其他 绝大多数城市都已经全面放开了限购政策。同时，银行也把房贷利率降到3.5%以下，首付比例也降到 20%。去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is expected to continue its downward trend into 2025, with significant declines in both sales volume and prices, as predicted by Li Ka-shing in 2018 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to April 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing reached 29,252 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2% [2]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing was 28,067 billion yuan, down 28.3%, with residential sales revenue declining by 31.1% [2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, 53 out of 70 major cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices, with 12 cities seeing a drop of over 1.5% [2]. Group 2: Predictions and Trends - The real estate market is expected to undergo three major changes in the second half of 2025: 1. Price differentiation will occur, with previously declining prices in second and third-tier cities stabilizing, while core areas of first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen will start to see price corrections [6]. 2. The government will intensify market rescue efforts, with more policies expected to be introduced, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions and further reductions in mortgage rates [6]. 3. A significant reshuffling of real estate companies is anticipated, particularly affecting those with high debt ratios (70%-80%) that are facing financial difficulties [8]. Group 3: Li Ka-shing's Insights - Li Ka-shing's 2018 prediction highlighted that high property prices in mainland China were unsustainable and would eventually lead to a return to housing's fundamental purpose, warning investors to be cautious [4]. - He also indicated that companies with high debt and declining sales would face bankruptcy or restructuring, while financially stable firms would survive [4].