行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 哪些产业政策会更有力度？ 丨证券研究报告丨 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Tablary] 近期北上深逐步放开外围限购，虽然效果相对有限，但可能意味着新一轮宽松的开启，还有哪 些产业政策对稳楼市会更有力度？1、核心区域放开限购，对于边际的影响更大，尤其高端新房 市场的价格天花板将进一步抬升，但未必能逆转趋势。2、结构性工具定向降低房贷利率，基准 利率约束条件较多，但定向降低房贷利率并未超越当前政策框架，住房本身就是最大的消费。 3、公积金存贷利率有较大下调空间，本轮下降过程相对偏慢，给未来预留了更大的相机抉择余 地。4、大规模收储，可缓解买卖市场供需压力，但可能加大后续租赁市场供给压力。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 哪些产业政策会更有力度？ 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 核心观点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 止跌回稳的政 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a gradual rise in the probability of policy easing, with the timing being the only variable [5][9] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - The current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound, especially for leading real estate companies with low inventory and strong product capabilities [5] - Focus on leading real estate firms with stable cash flow, as well as leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [5] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.84% this week, with an excess return of 0.61% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 18th out of 32 industries [6][16] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 1.39%, with an excess return of -2.94% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Shanghai has clarified that the overall renovation of urban villages will accelerate by 2026, while Beijing continues to optimize real estate-related policies to stimulate demand [7][20] - Specific measures include removing the limit on the number of homes that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and expanding the scope of public housing fund loans [7][20] Sales Data - The transaction volume in sample cities has shown a seasonal decline, with new home transaction area in 37 cities down by 19.1% year-on-year [8][21] - The cumulative year-to-date new home transaction area in 37 cities is down by 5.3%, while the second-hand home transaction area in 19 cities is up by 14.6% [8][21] Weekly Highlights - The downward pressure on volume and price in the industry has increased since Q2, particularly in core cities, necessitating further easing of policies [9] - The report outlines three layers of understanding regarding future industrial policy space, including optimization of down payment, interest rates, and purchase limits [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that while the conventional policy space is relatively limited, there is still significant potential for extraordinary policy measures. This includes structural monetary or fiscal tools aimed at easing the burden on homebuyers, such as deep interest rate cuts on housing provident funds and increasing loan limits. The necessity for policy easing is increasing, and the timing is approaching, suggesting a favorable environment for selective investments in development stocks and stable cash flow companies [2][5][9]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.47%. However, year-to-date, the index is down 4.94%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.61% [6][16]. - The report notes that the performance of development and property management stocks has been primarily upward, while rental companies have generally declined [6]. Policy Developments - Several cities have adjusted their housing provident fund policies to facilitate home purchases. For instance, Hangzhou allows the use of provident funds for down payments on new homes, while Jinan has clarified that individuals can withdraw funds for purchasing affordable housing with a minimum down payment of 15% [7][20]. Sales Data - New home registrations in 37 cities showed a significant year-on-year decline of 18.3%, while second-hand home registrations remained negative. Year-to-date, new home sales are down 2.0%, while second-hand home sales are up 19.8% [8][22]. Sector Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of leading real estate companies with regional and product advantages, as well as those with stable cash flows, such as leading brokerage firms and commercial real estate companies, for medium to long-term investment opportunities [5][9].