Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [10]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, downward pressure has increased again, leading to a higher probability of policy easing in the future. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties. The current stock positions are not far from last year's bottom, providing room for a rebound in overall market valuation. Focus on leading real estate companies with low inventory, good locations, and strong product capabilities, as well as leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies with stable cash flows [4][8]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 0.68% this week, with an excess return of +0.13% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 16th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 5.29%, with an excess return of -8.07% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 26th out of 32 [5][15]. Policy Updates - Shenzhen has further optimized housing purchase policies, adjusted policies for enterprises and institutions, and improved credit policies. Key changes include maintaining original purchase restrictions in core areas while allowing more flexibility in non-core areas. The mortgage interest rate will no longer differentiate between first and second homes [6][17]. Sales Trends - Recent data shows a marginal improvement in new and second-hand home registrations. The transaction area for new homes in 37 cities decreased by 14.9% year-on-year, while second-hand homes increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Year-to-date, new home transaction area is down by 6.2%, while second-hand homes are up by 14.4% [7][18].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has somewhat boosted market expectations, but since April, marginal downward pressure has increased, leading to a gradual rise in the probability of policy easing, with the timing being the only variable [5][9] - The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have already passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5] - The current stock positions are not far from the bottom, providing room for a rebound, especially for leading real estate companies with low inventory and strong product capabilities [5] - Focus on leading real estate firms with stable cash flow, as well as leading brokerage, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [5] Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 1.84% this week, with an excess return of 0.61% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 18th out of 32 industries [6][16] - Year-to-date, the Yangtze River Real Estate Index has increased by 1.39%, with an excess return of -2.94% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 [6][16] Policy Updates - Shanghai has clarified that the overall renovation of urban villages will accelerate by 2026, while Beijing continues to optimize real estate-related policies to stimulate demand [7][20] - Specific measures include removing the limit on the number of homes that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing and expanding the scope of public housing fund loans [7][20] Sales Data - The transaction volume in sample cities has shown a seasonal decline, with new home transaction area in 37 cities down by 19.1% year-on-year [8][21] - The cumulative year-to-date new home transaction area in 37 cities is down by 5.3%, while the second-hand home transaction area in 19 cities is up by 14.6% [8][21] Weekly Highlights - The downward pressure on volume and price in the industry has increased since Q2, particularly in core cities, necessitating further easing of policies [9] - The report outlines three layers of understanding regarding future industrial policy space, including optimization of down payment, interest rates, and purchase limits [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12]. Core Insights - The report indicates that while the conventional policy space is relatively limited, there is still significant potential for extraordinary policy measures. This includes structural monetary or fiscal tools aimed at easing the burden on homebuyers, such as deep interest rate cuts on housing provident funds and increasing loan limits. The necessity for policy easing is increasing, and the timing is approaching, suggesting a favorable environment for selective investments in development stocks and stable cash flow companies [2][5][9]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.47%. However, year-to-date, the index is down 4.94%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 4.61% [6][16]. - The report notes that the performance of development and property management stocks has been primarily upward, while rental companies have generally declined [6]. Policy Developments - Several cities have adjusted their housing provident fund policies to facilitate home purchases. For instance, Hangzhou allows the use of provident funds for down payments on new homes, while Jinan has clarified that individuals can withdraw funds for purchasing affordable housing with a minimum down payment of 15% [7][20]. Sales Data - New home registrations in 37 cities showed a significant year-on-year decline of 18.3%, while second-hand home registrations remained negative. Year-to-date, new home sales are down 2.0%, while second-hand home sales are up 19.8% [8][22]. Sector Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of leading real estate companies with regional and product advantages, as well as those with stable cash flows, such as leading brokerage firms and commercial real estate companies, for medium to long-term investment opportunities [5][9].