规模收缩，价值聚焦 房地产行业土地市场 2025 年总结 本报告导读： 2025 年土地市场呈现 "提质缩量" 特征，成交建面与金额同比下滑但楼面均价上涨， 投资向一二线城市聚焦。央国企为拿地主力，头部房企拿地强度提升，行业格局持 续调整。 投资要点： 核心城市土地出让金占比稳定过半，一二线城市溢价率仍维持相对 高位。2025 年全国样本城市的平均溢价率为 5.3%，同比上涨 1.1pct， 其中一线/二线/三四线城市分别为 10.7%/6.2%/3.1%，分别同比 +3.8pct/+2.3pct/-0.6pct，且上海/深圳/杭州/成都全年溢价率突破 10%，分别为 15.3%/26.9%/25.4%/10.3%。从单季度表现看，年内溢 价率前高后底，年初在优质地块及房企项目周期等因素的多重刺激 下，土拍市场大幅升温，年中以来，投资逐步回归理性，热度回落， 溢价率也同步下滑。此外，从城市集中度上，2025 年全国 TOP10、 TOP20 城市宅地出让金额在全国比重分别为 37%、52%，较 2024 年 分别提升 3pct、1pct。 重点房企投资策略趋同，央国企和头部房企在投资端更为积极。从 权益拿地金 ...

重点房企投资策略趋同，央国企和头部房企在投资端更为积极。 从权益拿地金额口径看， 2025 年共有 12 家房企破百亿元，其中 11 家为央国企，包括中 海地产、保利发展、华润置地、招商蛇口、绿城中国、建发房产、越秀地产、中国金茂、保利置业、中国中铁和中建壹品，仅滨江集团 1 家民企；结合销售 数据，重点房企中滨江集团拿地强度最高，为 81.9% ，其他房企也整体表现为拿地强度的同比上涨。此外，全口径销售 TOP100 房企的整体拿地强度为 0.29 ，同比提升 70.6% 。 报告导读： 2025 年土地市场呈现 " 提质缩量 " 特征，成交建面与金额同比下滑但楼面 均价上涨，投资向一二线城市聚焦。央国企为拿地主力，头部房企拿地强度提升，行业格 局持续调整。 当前 AH 房地产板块总市值与行业在经济中的地位不匹配。 2025 年土地市场以"提质缩量"为主旋律。 1 ）从供给端， 2025 年全国样本城市土地供应建面 117242 万平方米，同比下滑 16.9% ，其中一线 / 二线 / 三四线分别供应 1475/25315/90452 万平方米，分别同比 -27.6%/-6.4%/-19.2% 。 2 ）从 ...

Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown weak absolute and relative returns since Q3 2025, but its "high dividend, low valuation" characteristics are becoming more prominent after a phase of price adjustment [4] - The resilience of the banking fundamentals is strong, with listed banks expected to report slightly better performance growth in Q3 2025 compared to H1 2025, providing a stable foundation for annual performance [4] - There are six positive factors supporting the current valuation of bank stocks, indicating a potential reallocation opportunity in the banking sector [4] Real Estate Market - From January to September 2025, the total area of residential land sold in 100 cities was 1.54 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [4] - The average transaction price of land was 6,847 yuan per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, with first-tier cities averaging 41,137 yuan per square meter, up 42.0% year-on-year [4] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in 30 cities was 11.1%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, with these cities accounting for 48% of the total area sold and 82% of the total transaction value [4] Metals and Materials - The price of cobalt across various categories has risen, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 368,000 yuan per ton, a week-on-week increase of 6.7% [4] - The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.82, down 13.1% week-on-week, while the ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt sulfate is 4.16, a decrease of 1.5% [4] - Carbon fiber prices remained stable at 83.8 yuan per kilogram, with a gross profit of 8.38 yuan per kilogram [4] Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 33.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.85 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 17.2% [6] - The company is actively promoting collaboration with Douyin, which is expected to boost advertising gross income and overall performance [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, suggesting a potential increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 12 months [9]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the land supply in 23 key cities in China saw a significant decrease in planned construction area, with a month-on-month decline of 62.9%, totaling 343.9 million square meters [1]. - The total land transaction amount reached 888.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 41% decrease compared to the previous month [1]. - The land transaction premium rate in July 2025 rose to 12.41%, indicating a notable recovery since the beginning of the year [3]. - China Resources Land led the land acquisition with 15 plots, totaling 906.69 billion yuan [3]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transactions - In July 2025, 106 residential land plots were launched, with 113 plots successfully transacted, amounting to a total planned construction area of 653.68 million square meters [1]. - The land transaction premium rate has shown a significant increase, indicating a recovery in market confidence [3]. Company Land Acquisition - The report highlights the land acquisition activities of major companies, with China Resources Land acquiring the most plots, followed by Greentown China and China Merchants Shekou [4]. - The average land price per square meter for China Resources Land was 20,422 yuan, while Greentown China had an average of 25,031 yuan per square meter [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Jinmao, which has shown significant land acquisition activity and improvements in corporate governance [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Insights - The land market in 23 key cities in China saw a total of 139 residential land plots offered in June 2025, with a planned construction area of 9.26 million square meters, reflecting an 18.3% month-on-month decrease in supply [1]. - The total land transaction amount reached 150.57 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the average land premium rate, which rose to 9.06% in June 2025 [3]. - Major developers are actively acquiring land, with China Jinmao being highlighted for its aggressive land purchases, which are expected to benefit from improved corporate governance and substantial land acquisitions [4]. Summary by Sections Land Supply and Transactions - In June 2025, the supply of residential land in 23 key cities decreased by 18.3% compared to the previous month, with 139 plots offered and 176 plots successfully sold [1]. - The total area sold was 7.24 million square meters, generating a total land transfer fee of 150.57 billion yuan [1]. Premium Rates and Developer Activity - The average land premium rate in June 2025 was reported at 9.06%, showing a significant recovery compared to earlier in the year [3]. - China Overseas Land & Investment was noted for acquiring the largest number of plots, totaling 6 plots with a total expenditure of 11.03 billion yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on China Jinmao due to its recent large-scale land acquisitions and improvements in corporate governance, which are expected to enhance its market position [4].